California homebuying fell to its second-lowest level for a November in 21 years, despite mortgage rates at their lowest in three years.
Statewide, 23,317 existing and newly built homes — houses and condos — were sold, according to Attom data dating to 2005. This broad tally of sales is down 8% over 12 months and 30% below average.
It’s no short-run slip. Sales over the past three years averaged 26,428 per month – 31% below the pace of the previous 18 years.
Contemplate the economic swings behind the sales collapse.
Mortgage rates averaged 6.3% in the three months ended in November, according to Freddie Mac. That’s down from 6.5% a year earlier and the recent peak of 7.4% in November 2022, when the national economy was overheated. Previously, rates tumbled to 2.73% in January 2021 when coronavirus darkened economic prospects.
In affordability-challenged California, why didn’t the year-end rate dip boost sales?
Well, cheaper financing can be tied to a wobbly business climate. Economic uncertainty is not good for homebuying.
The price is wrong
Plus, California’s pricing remains stubbornly high.
The $735,000 median sales price for November was up 0.3% in a year and sits just 2% below the $751,000 peak set in June 2025.
The good news for house hunters is that appreciation has cooled. Home prices are up 9% during the past three years vs. 32% gains in 2019-2022.
Payment pain
Who’s got $3,632 a month to buy a home?
That’s an estimated mortgage payment a buyer would get at November’s median price – even with the cheapest rates since 2022.
Yes, California’s buying burden is 9% below its peak in June 2024. However, payments are also up 94% over the past six years.
This math does not include other recurring ownership costs, such as property taxes, insurance, maintenance, or association fees.
Also, keep in mind the $147,000 down payment needed to make this deal work.
Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com