I disagree that Broncos coach Sean Payton erred by going for it Sunday in an AFC title game that the Patriots went on to win, 10-7.
The call’s outcome, for sure, cast shade on Payton.
The Broncos could have gone up 10 points in the early second quarter by kicking the 32-yard field goal. Instead, they went for it on fourth-and-1 and failed in a big way, never scored again and saw the Patriots go on to earn their 12th Super Bowl berth.
Critics said “taking the points” would’ve been the right call, rather than having Jarrett Stidham, a backup quarterback pressed into the start, try to gain a yard in the red zone.
Points were especially precious, critics duly noted – because of Stidham’s backup status and snow forecast for the second half that would make it harder for each offense.
Stidham’s limitations indeed became more apparent.
He had a bad fumble later in the quarter that set up New England’s only touchdown. From there, the game seemed to speed up on him.
The snow arrived on time, bogging down each offense somewhat. “There were certain throws we weren’t going to call,” Payton said.
Even so, the risk-reward of going for it was compelling.
NFL teams converted on 65.4% of fourth-and-1 tries, per The Sporting News, in the decade leading up to 2022. Though a successful conversion wouldn’t have ensured a touchdown, let’s consider what a TD would accomplish.
Handing a 14-0 lead to a very good Broncos defense, with snow coming in the second half, would’ve put the Patriots in a large bind.
“To get up 14-0 — I was just watching the way our defense was playing,” Payton said, in reference to Denver forcing punts on its first three chance.
At 14-0, Stidham could’ve been spared some stress. And Patriots quarterback Drake Maye, 23, would’ve had less margin for error.
The fourth-and-1 play itself, I suspect, will irk Payton far more than what-ifs relating to his go-for-it decision.
Unblocked, Patriots linemen Milt Williams and Corey Durden surged into the backfield.
Carrying out a bootleg to his right, Stidham had turned his back to fake a handoff and roll out.
His first option — running back RJ Harvey — was smothered. The QB had no time to search for a second target so he grounded the pass near Harvey.
“I felt like we had a good call,” Payton said.
When evaluating Payton’s go-for-it outcome, don’t overlook Maye’s big play on the next series.
The 20-yard completion to Mack Hollins converted third-and-13, when an incompletion would’ve had New England punting from its 11.
In the quarterback comparison, Maye fared better.
He committed no turnovers — a sizable feat.
He ran for key gains — six yards for a tying TD two plays after Stidham’s fumble put the Patriots at the 12; and 28 yards on third-and-9 to set up a go-ahead kick of 23 yards in third quarter.
So it’s Super Bowl next for the Patriots, who’ve gone 17-3 in their first year under coach Mike Vrabel, a three-time Super Bowl winner as an edge rusher under Bill Belichick.
Vrabel’s defense is the team’s top unit.
It tackles well and earns above-average marks in the line and both cornerback spots.
In the playoffs, it allowed no touchdowns to the Chargers, picked off four Texans passes and shut out the Broncos for two-and-half quarters to close out the Super Bowl qualifier.
Yet the Patriots did not encounter a good offense.
Texans QB C.J. Stroud had a poor game, by anyone’s account.
Former NFL quarterback J.T. O’Sullivan’s 80-minute film breakdown found that Chargers QB Justin Herbert turned down numerous open targets downfield — a critique that resonated further Sunday when Stridham fired a 41-yard strike to Marvin Mims for a 52-yard gain.
That set up Denver’s TD.
The NFC champion will be favored, when the Patriots roll into Santa Clara.
The Patriots should be able to make a contest of it.
Maye has made youthful mistakes in all three playoff games, but he also steadied himself in contest.
Veteran coordinator Josh McDaniels will improve Maye’s odds.
The Patriots aren’t all the way back, but they’re set up well to get there. Maye, drafted third overall in 2024, is just two years into a cheap contract that includes a team option for 2028. Because of him and Vrabel, New England will again become an appealing destination for free agents.
For fans who grew sick of the Brady-Belichick dynasty, it’s a sickening development. The Patriots could be good for another decade.