After wrapping up at the end of August, the 2025 Almond Crop Estimate Challenge, hosted by The Ag Center News, collected input from 185 responses from growers, PCAs (pest control advisors), and ag professionals across California. Participants represented a wide range of regions, including the Central Valley, Sacramento Valley, and San Joaquin Valley, giving a broad snapshot of the state’s almond industry.
Across all submissions, the lowest prediction was 2.2 billion pounds, and the highest was 3.0 billion pounds. Using the median of all responses, the average final estimate came in at 2.77 billion pounds — slightly below the USDA’s official projection of 3.0 billion pounds.
Crowdsourcing local expertise
The challenge was designed to tap into the knowledge of those who know the crop best — the people working in the orchards every day. By pooling these on-the-ground insights, The Ag Center News aimed to create a more accurate and representative snapshot of this year’s almond harvest. Beyond numbers, the challenge demonstrated how the collective experience of growers, consultants, and ag professionals can complement traditional forecasting methods, giving a richer picture of what’s happening in the fields.
Comparing estimates to official numbers
All eyes are now on the end-of-year release of official crop numbers. This is when we’ll see how the aggregated guesses measure up against the USDA’s finalized count, and who will walk away with the $3,000 cash prize. While the challenge provided a valuable preview, the official numbers will offer the final confirmation of this year’s harvest.
Celebrating industry collaboration
The first-ever Almond Crop Estimate Challenge highlighted the importance of local expertise in understanding California agriculture. It also showcased the strong community within the almond industry, where shared knowledge and collaboration help everyone stay informed. The Ag Center News thanks everyone who participated and contributed to making this initiative a success. Stay tuned — the winner and final comparison will be revealed once the official numbers are announced.
The Ag Center is a hub for California farmers to find agricultural solutions including consulting, land development, farm management and financing.
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