Cal State Bakersfield will square off with Cal Poly, in what is expected to be a tight men’s college basketball game, at Icardo Center on Thursday, starting at 9:30 PM ET.

The championship matchup pairs two 14–3 teams coming off sharply contrasting conference title games, with New England advancing through a low-scoring, snow-filled AFC Championship win over Denver and Seattle earning its place after a 31–27 NFC Championship thriller against the Rams.

The clash also spotlights two offensive focal points, with Drake Maye guiding New England through a composed, run-focused AFC title performance and Jaxon Smith-Njigba entering as Seattle’s primary playmaker following a 153-yard, one-touchdown outing in the NFC Championship.

Based on updated simulations, Dimers’ proven college basketball model gives Cal Poly a slight edge with a 54% win probability over Cal State Bakersfield.

This article offers further insights into Thursday’s Cal Poly vs. Cal State Bakersfield matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and picks.

Cal Poly vs. Cal State Bakersfield prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Thursday’s NCAA basketball game between Cal Poly and Cal State Bakersfield 10,000 times as part of our men’s college basketball predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives Cal Poly a 54% chance of beating Cal State Bakersfield. Our predicted final score has Cal Poly winning 79-78.

According to our model, Cal State Bakersfield (+1.5) has a 51% chance of covering the spread, while the 160.5-point over/under has a 53% chance of staying under.

 

Cal Poly vs. Cal State Bakersfield odds

We have researched the best men’s college basketball odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type
Cal Poly
Cal State Bakersfield

Spread
-1.5 (-108)
+1.5 (-110)

Moneyline
-122
+106

Total
o160.5 (-110)
u160.5 (-110)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Cal Poly vs. Cal State Bakersfield picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below: