Kunkel, K. E. et al. Monitoring and understanding trends in extreme storms: state of knowledge. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 94, 499–514 (2013).
Swain, D. L., Langenbrunner, B., Neelin, J. D. & Hall, A. Increasing precipitation volatility in twenty-first-century California. Nat. Clim. Change 8, 427–433 (2018).
The United Nations World Water Development Report 2020: Water and Climate Change (UNESCO & UN-Water, 2020); https://unesdoc.unesco.org/ark:/48223/pf0000372985
California Climate Adaptation Strategy. Summary of Projected Climate Change Impacts on California (State of California, (2024).
Browder, G. et al. An Epic Response: Innovative Governance for Flood and Drought Risk Management (The World Bank, (2021).
Bates, B., Kundzewicz, Z., Wu, S. & Palutikof, J. Climate Change and Water (IPCC Secretariat, 2008).
Bruno, E. & Jessoe, K. Designing water markets for climate change adaptation. Nat. Clim. Change 14, 331–339 (2024).
Gonzales, P. & Ajami, N. K. Goal-based water trading expands and diversifies supplies for enhanced resilience. Nat. Sustain. 2, 138–147 (2019).
Anderson, S. E. et al. The critical role of markets in climate change adaptation. Clim. Change Econ. 10, 1950003 (2019).
Grafton, R. Q., Libecap, G., McGlennon, S., Landry, C. & O’Brien, B. An integrated assessment of water markets: a cross-country comparison. Rev. Environ. Econ. Policy 5, 219–239 (2011).
Chong, H. & Sunding, D. Water markets and trading. Annu. Rev. Environ. Resour. 31, 239–264 (2006).
Mendelsohn, R. The role of markets and governments in helping society adapt to a changing climate. Clim. Change 78, 203–215 (1994).
Berkoff, J. China: the south–north water transfer project—is it justified? Water Policy 5, 1–28 (2003).
Howe, C., Schurmeier, D. & Shaw Jr, D. Innovative approaches to water allocation: the potential for water markets. Water Resour. Res. 22, 439–445 (1986).
Colby, B. Transactions costs and efficiency in western water allocation. Am. J. Agric. Econ. 72, 1184–1192 (1990).
Mansur, E. & Olmstead, S. The value of scarce water: measuring the inefficiency of municipal regulations. J. Urban Econ. 71, 332–346 (2012).
Colby, B. & Isaaks, R. Water trading: innovations, modeling prices, data concerns. J. Contemp. Water Res. Educ. 165, 76–88 (2018).
Ferguson, B. & Milgrom, P. Market Design for Surface Water. Working Paper No. 32010 (National Bureau of Economic Research, 2023).
Brewer, J., Glennon, R., Ker, A. & Libecap, G. 2006 Presidential Address water markets in the west: prices, trading, and contractual forms. Econ. Inquiry 46, 91–112 (2008).
Donohew, Z. Property rights and western united states water markets. Aust. J. Agric. Resour. Econ. 53, 85–103 (2008).
Grafton, Q., Libecap, G., Edwards, E., O’Brien, R. & Landry, C. Comparative assessment of water markets: insights from the Murray–Darling Basin of Australia and the Western USA. Water Policy 14, 175–193 (2012).
Regnacq, C., Dinar, A. & Hanak, E. The gravity of water: water trade frictions in California. Am. J. Agric. Econ. 98, 1273–1294 (2016).
Hagerty, N. What holds back water markets? transaction costs and the gains from trade. Unpublished Working Paper (Montana State University, 2023).
Leonard, B., Costello, C. & Libecap, G. Expanding water markets in the Western United States: barriers and lessons from other natural resource markets. Rev. Environ. Econ. Policy 13, 43–61 (2019).
Loomis, J., Quattlebaum, K., Brown, T. & Alexander, S. Expanding institutional arrangements for acquiring water for environmental purposes: transactions evidence for the western united states. Int. J. Water Resour. Dev. 19, 21–28 (2003).
Rafey, W. Droughts, deluges, and (river) diversions: valuing market-based water reallocation. Am. Econ. Rev. 113, 430–471 (2023).
Payne, M. & Smith, M. Price determination and efficiency in the market for water rights in New Mexico’s Middle Rio Grande Basin. Int. J. Water Resour. Dev. 29, 588–604 (2013).
Satoh, E. Nontransferable water rights and technical inefficiency in the japanese water supply industry. Water Resour. Econ. 11, 13–21 (2015).
Brennan, D. Missing markets for storage and the potential economic cost of expanding the spatial scope of water trade. Aust. J. Agric. Resour. Econ. 52, 471–485 (2008).
Brookshire, D., Colby, B., Ewers, M. & Ganderton, P. Market prices for water in the semiarid west of the United States. Water Resour. Res. 40, W09S04 (2004).
Zhang, W. et al. Increasing precipitation variability on daily-to-multiyear time scales in a warmer world. Sci. Adv. 7, eabf8021 (2021).
Person, D. ICS—three little letters that signify big contributions and new flexibility. Central Arizona Project https://knowyourwaternews.com/ics-three-little-letters-that-signify-big-contributions-and-new-flexibility/ (2024).
Ghosh, S. Droughts and water trading in the Western United States: recent economic evidence. Int. J. Water Resour. Dev. 35, 145–159 (2019).
Ghosh, S., Cobourn, K. & Elbakidze, L. Water banking, conjunctive administration, and drought: the interaction of water markets and prior appropriation in southeastern Idaho. Water Resour. Res. 50, 6927–6949 (2014).
Gonzalez, D., Dillon, P., Page, D. & Vanderzalm, J. The potential for water banking in Australia’s Murray–Darling Basin to increase drought resilience. Water 12, 2936 (2020).
Escriva-Bou, A., Hanak, E. & Mount, J. California’s Water Grid (Public Policy Institute of California, 2019).
Ehsani, N., Vörösmarty, C., Fekete, B. & Stakhiv, E. Reservoir operations under climate change: storage capacity options to mitigate risk. J. Hydrol. 555, 435–446 (2017).
Tong, Y. et al. Global lakes are warming slower than surface air temperature due to accelerated evaporation. Nat. Water 1, 929–940 (2023).
Zhang, H., Xu, Y. & Kanyerere, T. A review of the managed aquifer recharge: historical development, current situation and perspectives. Phys. Chem. Earth 118, 102887 (2020).
Alam, S., Gebremichael, M., Li, R., Dozier, J. & Lettenmaier, D. P. Can managed aquifer recharge mitigate the groundwater overdraft in California’s Central Valley? Water Resour. Res. 56, e2020WR027244 (2020).
Ulibarri, N. et al. Assessing the feasibility of managed aquifer recharge in California. Water Resour. Res. 57, e2020WR029292 (2021).
Brown, T. Trends in water market activity and prices in the Western United States. Water Resour. Res. 42, W09402 (2006).
Groundwater Recharge (California Department of Water Resources, 2024).
Groundwater Conditions Report Water Year 2021 (California Department of Water Resources, 2021).
Barrett, C. Measuring integration an efficiency in international agricultural markets. Appl. Econ. Perspect. Policy 23, 19–32 (2001).
Gollier, C. The Economics of Risk and Time (MIT Press, 2001).
Wright, B. D. The economics of grain price volatility. Appl. Econ. Perspect. Policy 33, 32–58 (2011).
Heckmann, I., Comes, T. & Nickel, S. A critical review on supply chain risk—definition, measure and modeling. Omega 52, 119–132 (2015).
Pullen, J. & Colby, B. Influence of climate variability on the market price of water in the Gila–San Francisco Basin. J. Agric. Resour. Econ. 33, 473–487 (2008).
Hanak, E. et al. California’s Water: Storing Water (Public Policy Institute of California, 2018).
California Data Exchange Center—Reservoirs (California Department of Water Resources, 2024).
Wright, B. International grain reserves and other instruments to address volatility in grain markets. World Bank Res. Obs. 27, 222–260 (2012).
Carter, C., Rausser, G. & Smith, A. Commodity booms and busts. Annu. Rev. Resour. Econ. 3, 87–118 (2011).
McCartney, M. Living with dams: managing the environmental impacts. Water Policy 11, 121–139 (2009).
Ansar, A., Flyvbjerg, B., Budzier, A. & Lunn, D. Should we build more large dams? The actual costs of hydropower megaproject development. Energy Policy 69, 43–56 (2014).
Scanlon, B. R. et al. Groundwater depletion and sustainability of irrigation in the US high plains and central valley. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 109, 9320–9325 (2012).
Steward, D. R. et al. Tapping unsustainable groundwater stores for agricultural production in the high plains aquifer of kansas, projections to 2110. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 110, E3477–E3486 (2013).
Hartmann, A., Gleeson, T., Wada, Y. & Wagener, T. Enhanced groundwater recharge rates and altered recharge sensitivity to climate variability through subsurface heterogeneity. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 114, 2842–2847 (2017).
Karimov, A., Smakhtin, V., Mavlonov, A. & Gracheva, I. Water ‘banking’ in Fergana Valley aquifers—a solution to water allocation in the Syrdarya River Basin? Agric. Water Manag. 97, 1461–1468 (2010).
Long, D. et al. Unprecedented large-scale aquifer recovery through human intervention. Nat. Commun. 16, 1–12 (2025).
Long, D. et al. South-to-north water diversion stabilizing Beijing’s groundwater levels. Nat. Commun. 11, 1–10 (2020).
Montilla-Lopez, N., Gutierrez-Martin, C. & Goez-Limon, J. Water banks: what have we learnt from the international experience? Water 8, 466 (2016).
Managed aquifer recharge (MAR) case study. Acil Allen Consulting https://www.csiro.au/-/media/About/Files/Impact-case-studies/Full-Reports/ACIL-Allen_Water-Case-Study—MAR—Final-21-May_2018-2.pdf (2018).
Arellano-Gonzalez, J. & Moore, F. Intertemporal arbitrage of water and long-term agricultural investments: drought, groundwater banking, and perennial cropping decisions in California. Am. J. Agric. Econ. 102, 1368–1382 (2020).
Tomori, F., Ansink, E., Houba, H., Hagerty, N. & Bos, C. Market power in California’s water market. Am. J. Agric. Econ. 3, 1274–1299 (2024).
Bruno, E. M. & Sexton, R. J. The gains from agricultural groundwater trade and the potential for market power: theory and application. Am. J. Agric. Econ. 102, 884–910 (2020).
Sencan, G. & Hanak, E. Improving California’s Water Market, How Water Trading and Banking Can Support Groundwater Management. Technical Appendix B. California’s Water Market, by the Numbers: Update 2021 (Public Policy Institute of California, 2021).