One more time with everything on the line.
The Patriots are 4.5-point underdogs heading into the Super Bowl, a rematch with the Seahawks, who only just recently recovered from their infamous defeat in Super Bowl XLIX. Drake Maye is healthy after a shoulder scare landed him on the injury report earlier this week. But the Patriots are still not as healthy as Seattle, which only listed one fullback on its final injury report.
At full strength, the Seahawks are the better and talented team. Their defense ranks best in the league against the run and pass. They boast the NFL’s Offensive Player of the Year, star wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Ngjiba, and a reborn Sam Darnold at quarterback with good rushers behind him.
So how can the Pats pull off the upset? And will they?
Here’s what to watch for in Santa Clara:
When the Patriots run
It’s on you, Rhamondre.
The Patriots need their starting back to be at his best versus Seattle, and breaking tackles like he has the last six games. During that stretch, Stevenson broke 24 tackles and averaged 5.7 yards per carry. He also finished the regular season as the league leader in Next Gen Stats’ rush yards over expectation, a metric that measures how often a running back is gaining more or fewer yards than expected based on his surroundings down to down.
Stevenson must carry the load because the Pats’ offensive line figures to be overmatched by a defense that allowed 3.8 yards per carry, fewest in the league, and ranks No. 1 by DVOA against the run. The Seahawks are so good, in fact, the gap between them and the No. 2-ranked team is the same between that Houston run defense and the 14th-best run defense in the league.
Expect offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels to test Seattle with his six-lineman groupings in efforts to get the Seahawks into their rarely-used base personnel (only four defensive backs). Even if it’s a ploy to set up play-action against heavy defensive personnel, the Pats’ jumbo packages will be a weapon after rejuvenating their run game late in the year. Schematically, Seattle has been slightly weaker versus interior runs (like inside zone and duo), which will be key for Stevenson, while rookie TreVeyon Henderson remains a better option on outside runs.
One final key: blocking inside linebacker Ernest Jones, who was often caught in traffic or erased at the second level on most explosive runs his defense allowed this year.
When the Patriots pass
New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye warms up before the AFC Championship NFL football game between the Denver Broncos and the New England Patriots, Sunday, Jan. 25, 2026, in Denver. (AP Photo/Garrett W. Ellwood)
If Maye plays like he has most of the postseason, the Pats may have no shot.
The good news: Maye should be due for some positive regression. And the Seahawks, as sound as they are, can be cracked for some explosive plays. Look for Maye to try some deep shots down the sideline to Kayshon Boutte against outside corner Josh Jobe, who’s drawn several pass interference penalties. Maye should also attack nickelback Devon Witherspoon, one of the more talented corners in the game who also allowed one of the highest catch percentages in the league.
Otherwise, the Pats could try Henderson in space versus Seahawks linebacker Drake Thomas, a run-first player. But Maye must be given time. Seattle has four different defenders who recorded 50-plus pressures this season, including defensive tackles Leonard Williams and Byron Murphy II (seven sacks apiece). Williams and Murphy will stress rookie left guard Jared Wilson for most of the game in pass protection, while fellow rookie Will Campbell should have his hands full with edge rushers DeMarcus Lawrence and Uchenna Nwosu.
New England Patriots’ Milton Williams (97) and Christian Barmore celebrate during an NFL game against the Cleveland Browns at Gillette Stadium on Oct. 26 in Foxboro. (Winslow Townson/AP Images for Panini)
When the Seahawks run
Which Patriots’ run defense shows up?
Lately, it’s been the same dominant force that started this season with a historic stretch of never allowing a 50-yard rusher. The Pats manhandled Denver in the AFC Championship Game, thanks mostly to defensive tackles Milton Williams and Christian Barmore. They did lose a little glue when captain and inside linebacker Robert Spillane left with an ankle injury, and Spillane will be at less than 100% if he plays.
That said, a season-ending injury to Zach Charbonnet leaves the Seahawks with only one dangerous runner, and Kenneth Walker is more adept at hurting defenses inside than on the edges, where the Patriots are weakest. Walker rushed for 1,027 yards and five touchdowns this season, demonstrating plus patience, vision and speed most of the year. If Seattle does hit the Pats for an explosive run, it’s likely Walker will be rushing at outside linebacker K’Lavon Chaisson, a frequent target for Patriots opponents this season.
But overall, the Seahawks’ run game is far from intimidating, ranking 14th by DVOA and even worse by other advanced metrics, mostly due to an average offensive line with clear weak spots. There’s a good chance both offenses run into a brick wall Sunday.
When the Seahawks pass
So, about those weak spots.
Right guard Anthony Bradford is the Seahawks lineman the Patriots should target with 1-on-1 matchups against Barmore and Williams. He’s allowed pressure on 15% of his pass-blocking snaps in the playoffs. Young center Jalen Sundell is gettable, too.
If the Pats get to Darnold often enough, he should crack. Darnold threw the most interceptions in the NFL when under pressure this season and had a dozen fumbles. Darnold is dangerous off play-action, but closer to adequate on standard dropbacks.
If the Patriots can’t affect Darnold with a standard rush, they should revisit the blitz packages that paved the way for a late-season renaissance. The key will then be covering against Smith-Njigba, who can expect No. 1 corner Christian Gonzalez to shadow him, according to comments veteran cornerback Carlton Davis made this week. But because of the Seahawks’ pre-snap motions and stacked alignments, Gonzalez can’t follow him all game, meaning it will be important to sprinkle in occasional double-teams and help in zone coverage.
Otherwise, speedy wideout Rashid Shaheed, who barely caught a dozen passes for Seattle after getting traded by the Saints in November, is a potent deep threat Darnold should try in 1-on-1 coverage against Davis. Tight end AJ Barner is also a top red-zone target, and veteran slot receiver Cooper Kupp will go head-to-head with Marcus Jones but doesn’t pose the same threat he once did.
Prediction
Patriots 23, Seahawks 20