AIR FORCE ACADEMY, Colo. — Three thoughts on San Diego State’s 88-54 win at Air Force on Saturday night:
1. The stretch run
During a timeout with five minutes left and the Aztecs up 85-49, coach Brian Dutcher told his players he would reward them with the next two days off if they could maintain or grow the 36-point margin.
“They were all like, ‘Two days off!’” said Dutcher, whose team has a midweek bye. “Then we put the walk-ons in and I thought, ‘Maybe they won’t be able to hit that.’ So at the next timeout (with 3:26 left), I told them, ‘If (Cam) Lawin gets a 3, it’s a side deal — two days off.’”
The walk-on guard attempted a 3 with 2:06 left. No good.
He attempted another with 1:34 left. No good.
Lawin finally scored, on a turnaround jumper with 28 seconds left, but it was inside the 3-point arc. And the final margin was 34, not 36.
“He didn’t get a 3,” Dutcher said, “but in the locker room I told them, ‘The degree of difficulty on the shot he hit was good enough. Two days off!’ My intention was always to take two days off anyway, rest some legs, try to get fresh bodies and fresh minds heading down the stretch.”
That’s because Dutcher knows what’s at stake.
His Aztecs won by 34 on the road but barely budged in the Kenpom metric, climbing from 43 to 41 by night’s end. They moved up one spot in the NCAA’s NET, from 44 to 43.
Right smack on the NCAA Tournament bubble.
“The bubbliest of bubble teams,” ESPN called SDSU in a recent analysis of their at-large chances.
The Aztecs know the feeling. A year ago, they were in almost the exact same metric position but had the cap feather of marquee nonconference wins against Creighton and Houston, something they don’t have this year.
They would be one of the final teams to receive an at-large berth — and got shipped to the First Four in Dayton — with a resume that had three Quad 1 wins and a Quad 3 loss. This season’s resume so far: one Quad 1 win, one Quad 3 loss.
Saturday’s trip to Clune Arena to face arguably the worst team in Mountain West history was the last true gimme on the schedule. Of the bottom five teams in the standings, the Aztecs play only one more and that’s at Colorado State, a place they’ve lost three of the last four years (and the lone win was in overtime).
The other six games remaining: Nevada, Grand Canyon, Utah State and UNLV at home, New Mexico and surging Boise State on the road.
Win them all, and they Aztecs are outright regular-season champions. Go 6-1 with a win against Utah State, and they’re guaranteed at least a share of the title and would still be well-positioned for an at-large berth.
Go 5-2 and … well, they’d rather not have the ulcer.
“All these high major teams, all they have is Quad 1 opportunities, which we don’t have many of,” said Dutcher, who has three left: Utah State, at New Mexico and at Boise State. “We have to win all these games like this, where we don’t step on a landmine. That’s hard to do sometimes. It’s harder to do this sometimes than the other, which is catch a team on an off night and steal a Quad 1 win.”
They’ll start by … taking Sunday and Monday off, practice Tuesday, then go light on Wednesday with a midweek bye.
“This is the last chance we have to rest, because then we’re going to be in the cycle of game, game, game, game,” Dutcher said. “As much as we need Xs and Os, we need to rest our bodies for the stretch run.
“These are all going to be super competitive games, the last seven. We know what that is.”
San Diego, CA – February 3: BJ Davis #10 of San Diego State shoots against Adam Harakow #13 of Wyoming at Viejas Arena on February 3, 2026 in San Diego, CA. (K.C. Alfred / The San Diego Union-Tribune)
2. The point
BJ Davis was SDSU’s leading scorer when he missed the front end of a one-and-one with 7.7 seconds left and the Aztecs up one at Grand Canyon on Jan. 21.
Four games later, he was third on the team in scoring. He averaged 5.5 points, shot 26.7% overall and was 1 of 10 beyond the arc in those four games.
He admits it. As much as Dutcher and his staff preach “next play,” he couldn’t turn the page.
“If that shot goes in, it’s a whole different three days and next few games,” Davis candidly said a week ago. “Obviously, I was super frustrated with myself. Did not want to do that at all. I’ve thought about it for quite some time, but you can’t let that be the defining factor of my life.
“I can’t say my life is going downhill because of a free throw. That would be silly. You have to be a man about things and pick it back up and keep going.”
The next game, at UNLV, Davis had a goose egg for the first time in 25 games, saying, “I was definitely in my own way, for sure, just thinking about what I could have done instead of what I’m about to do.”
There was another factor simultaneously at work, though. The team shut down starting point guard Elzie Harrington starting with the UNLV game, hoping rest would ease the lower leg pain that had bothered him for weeks. Davis was inserted into the starting lineup … as the point.
He began the season as No. 4 on the depth chart at point. But then Taj DeGourville, the original starter, was moved to off-guard and Harrington into the starting lineup. Sean Newman Jr. became the primary backup at the point.
“When he was playing with Elzie or Sean, he was the 2 (guard) and he was getting all of these shots,” Dutcher said. “At the point guard, you come down and you give it up and you don’t know if it’s going to come back to you. Sometimes it’s hard to score from the point guard position unless it’s a late (in the shot clock) ball screen. You’re distributing.”
To that end, Dutcher tried running more plays Saturday that were designed to get Davis shots.
That, and let’s not discount the level of Air Force’s defense, seemed to help. Davis finished with 16 points on 7-of-8 shooting (2 of 2 on 3s). His miss didn’t come until seven minutes left.
“It’s something I’m able to handle,” Davis said of the position switch. “It does at times get tough to maintain that focus and keep leading the team, but I think it’s something that down the stretch I’ll be ready for and I feel comfortable in that position. I’m going to keep working at it. Every game, I feel like I’m improving on little things, trying to keep growing.
“I just have to keep this up.”
Former San Diego State basketball coach Steve Fisher, left, poses with superfan Chet Carney during a May 2014 event at Petco Park. (Sarah Eishen)
3. Loyalty
Before Saturday’s game against Nevada, SDSU will hold a moment of silence for Chet Carney.
SDSU ordinarily doesn’t memorialize fans that way, but Carney, who died last week at age 70, wasn’t your ordinary fan.
A former cheerleader, he became a fixture at home games, first for performing the splits on the court and later for leading his trademark “1, 2, 3 … Aztecs” chant, perfectly timed when energy levels in Viejas Arena seemed to be waning.
Former coach Steve Fisher recognized Carney’s value to the program and quietly began providing him season tickets. When Dutcher took over in 2017, he continued the practice — no questions asked.
“Chet was a dynamic person,” Dutcher said. “Even when he wasn’t doing any more cartwheels or spinning around, getting the crowd into chants, he was at every Aztecs banquet, supporting his Aztecs. Never missed an end-of-season banquet. Chet loved his Aztecs. We were proud to have him be a part of everything we did, supporting his team.
“Loyalty is everything. If you say, ‘What’s the No. 1 quality you want in person?,’ it’s hard not to say loyalty. The guy was as loyal as the day was long, loyal to his city, loyal to his team and loyal to the Aztecs.
“We’re all going to miss him.”