San Diego County’s GDP grew 2.1% to $267 billion in the latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
The region’s GDP was bigger than 20 states and several nations: New Zealand ($258 billion), Greece ($257 billion), Hungary ($223 billion) and Qatar ($220 billion).
One argument sometimes heard from economists and planners is that San Diego County thinks too small given its large economy.
That can translate into scrapped transportation projects and limited infrastructure pushes. Yet regional planners often are constrained by the reality of budgets, especially in the city of San Diego.
Question: Do San Diego County planners have too much of a ‘small town’ mindset?
Economists
Alan Gin, University of San Diego
NO: Planners may have great visions, but they must deal with resource limitations. If anyone has a “small town” mindset, it is San Diego itself. That includes business leaders, government officials, and even the people themselves. This is partly due to being overshadowed by our giant neighbor to the north, as the region looks puny by comparison. People don’t realize how large the local economy is, and that leads to less support for providing the resources that would move the region beyond being a “small town.”
James Hamilton, UC San Diego
NO: San Diego has grown. But City Council’s appetite for spending has grown even more. While San Diego County GDP is up 67% over the last decade, city spending on governmental activities is up 107%. And the city’s designation of governmental activities does not include water and sewers, the airport, trash collection, or the San Diego Housing Commission. This is not “thinking big.” It is irresponsible stewardship. San Diego should focus on our own problems using the resources we have in hand.
Kelly Cunningham, San Diego Institute for Economic Research
NO: Much of San Diego’s charm is pretending to not be the nation’s 10th largest metropolitan area, 44th largest economy in the world, and home to 3.3 million residents. The mindset of a sleepy beachfront community in a unique Southern California location along the Pacific Ocean sandwiched between the massive Los Angeles metro area and Baja California is San Diego’s claim. If (they) really want to be Los Angeles, it is only an overly congested freeway to the north.
Ray Major, economist
YES: San Diego has a diverse and well-positioned economy leading to a GDP that exceeds many countries. Planners, as well as elected officials, should focus on creating a business-friendly environment and concentrate on planning infrastructure that connects businesses, primarily in Sorrento Valley, to reasonably priced housing options. Planning with businesses in mind could solve the city’s revenue problems. As companies grow and thrive, the tax base would increase from both businesses and from the jobs they support.
Norm Miller, University of San Diego
NO: Our planners and their bosses reflect us, the voters, and much is outside of their control, although unrealistic budgeting may add to the problems. In terms of scale, there are several examples where we think “big,” i.e., Seaport Village, the Sports Arena (Midway Rising), East Village Quarter, and Harmony Grove Village South, approved the first time in 2018, but execution is delayed by CEQA weaponized lawyers, too many public hearings, legal hurdles and other factors.
David Ely, San Diego State University
NO: The county consists of many communities with local leaders who are appropriately focused on what is best for their constituents rather than the collective larger region. Chula Vista is thinking big with the Gaylord Pacific Resort and other redevelopment plans. San Diego’s recent moves to support increased housing show a recognition that housing affordability needs to be addressed, which will foster economic growth. Investments in transportation infrastructure are needed, but budgets constrain efforts.
Executives
Gary London, London Moeder Advisors
YES: Our region is habitually constrained by budget limitations, which stifle creativity and progressive policy-making. Here’s a good example: transportation congestion cannot be cured by rail, fast or slow, which is too expensive to expand and is hardly ridden. Why not invite all the electric and autonomous auto firms to come into our region to freely and aggressively make our region a testing ground for better solutions through personal and flexible vehicle transportation?
Bob Rauch, R.A. Rauch & Associates
YES: The governance model is fragmented, with almost 20 cities, and local politics reward preservation over smart growth. SANDAG doesn’t have the authority to dictate a plan; a stronger regional authority over housing and transit, coupled with a shift from neighborhood‑level veto power to citywide and countywide priorities, would help. Growth is an opportunity, not a threat. Economically, San Diego could be a power player, but we are not.
Austin Neudecker, Weave Growth
NO: San Diego’s planners do not suffer from a lack of ambition; they are operating within real constraints. Cities must navigate layered state mandates, federal rules, voter restrictions, litigation risk and volatile funding. Big ideas are easy to pitch but hard to finance and permit. The challenge is aligning regional goals with fragmented authority and budgets, not a failure to recognize the county’s economic scale.
Chris Van Gorder, Scripps Health
NO: Many projects suggested are clearly designed for large counties that can afford them, with significant budgets and a supportive infrastructure. So, planners are thinking big. Voters would likely approve these projects if they were not already facing among the highest — if not the highest — taxes in the country. And not a day goes by without someone at the state, county or city level proposing another tax or fee on top of all the others.
Jamie Moraga, Franklin Revere
YES: San Diego has long struggled to get out of its own way. The region still operates with a small-town mindset despite its growth and potential. A direct transit connection to the airport, an extension into Sorrento Valley, an expanded convention center, and a modern Sports Arena are overdue. Instead, aging streets, buildings, and infrastructure reflect years of underinvestment and inconsistent priorities, which contribute to budget problems and keep San Diego from becoming a truly world-class city.
Phil Blair, Manpower
NO: I am more concerned that NIMBYs (not in my backyard) are running rampant throughout the county. With minimum total population growth, most of the growth is from our own children wanting to stay in San Diego. But not being able to afford it, mainly due to the cost of housing. We need to increase density in developed neighborhoods, promote infill projects and be reasonable in opening up undeveloped county land. The recent approval of housing on excess City College and San Diego Unified land are perfect examples of thoughtful development.
Not participating this week:
Caroline Freund, UC San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy
Have an idea for an Econometer question? Email me at phillip.molnar@sduniontribune.com. Follow me on Threads: @phillip020