The Nevada men’s basketball team plays at San Diego State on Saturday night. Nevada Sports Net’s Chris Murray breaks down the game with his three keys to victory and prediction. This feature is presented in partnership with Bradley, Drendel & Jeanney.
Nevada (17-7, 9-4 MW) at San Diego State (17-6, 11-2)
When: Saturday, 7 p.m.
Where: Viejas Arena (12,414 capacity)
TV/Radio: CBS Sports Network/95.5 FM
Online: None
Betting line: No line posed yet
Three keys for Nevada to win
1. A fast start: Starts have been an issue for Nevada in its last two games with the Wolf Pack falling into a 20-point hole at Boise State and trailing for the first 30 minutes against Fresno State. Getting off to a slow start at SDSU could be death. It has also been problematic for Nevada during its recent trips to Viejas Arena. The Wolf Pack has trailed by double-digits before the 9-minute mark of the first half in each of its last three games at SDSU. Nevada can ill-afford another slow start against the Aztecs, who should have a big crowd for this game. The more pressure the Wolf Pack can put on the home team early, the better shot it has of an upset.
2. Deal with SDSU’s length: The Aztecs’ defensive length in the paint stymied Nevada’s offense in the first matchup between these teams. The Wolf Pack made eight 3-pointers in that game but sank just 13-of-31 shots inside the arc (41.9 percent). SDSU has cranked its defense back up to an elite level since MW play began, so things will not be easy down low for Nevada. The Wolf Pack did get back 6-foot-10, 244-pound Joel Armotrading last game, which helps in the post. Power forward Elijah Price also had a lot of second-half success against the Aztecs that must carry over to this game. SDSU’s biggest reason for success the last 20 seasons is its length and defense, and that remains in a strong spot entering this game.
3. Better on-ball defense: While Nevada struggled to score in the paint against SDSU, the Aztecs ate up the Wolf Pack in that area with a 42-16 edge in points in the paint. In that first game, the Aztecs made 24-of-37 two-point attempts (64.9 percent). And the reason SDSU had so much success in that area was its ability to break down Nevada’s defense off the dribble. Miles Byrd was especially effective in this area with a team-high five assists in the win. The Wolf Pack must stay in front of Byrd and BJ Davis on Saturday as SDSU has pushed the pace much more this season (104th in the nation in adjusted tempo) compared to last year (245th).
Prediction
San Diego State 68, Nevada 61: I always figured Nevada would win a game at Viejas Arena at some point, and this is the Wolf Pack’s last chance to do so, pending future non-conference games between the schools. That arena has been a house of horrors for Nevada, which is 0-13 at SDSU during its MW era with an average margin of defeat of 10.8 points. The Aztecs haven’t been great this season, with their only Quad 1 win the victory at Nevada. But you can’t bet against SDSU at home, with the Aztecs 11-1 at Viejas this season and 93-10 at home since 2019. Season record: 17-7
Columnist Chris Murray provides insight on Northern Nevada sports. Contact him at crmurray@sbgtv.com or follow him on Twitter at @ByChrisMurray.