Will California voters have to decide between two Republicans for governor? | California Politics 360
NEXT WEEKEND, THE CALIFORNIA DEMOCRATIC PARTY WILL CONVENE IN SAN FRANCISCO. MANY ARE WONDERING, WILL THEY ACTUALLY ENDORSE ONE CANDIDATE FROM THE PACKED FIELD OF DEMOCRATS VYING TO SUCCEED GOVERNOR GAVIN NEWSOM? I SAT DOWN WITH PAUL MITCHELL, WHO ANALYZES RECENT POLLING AND CAMPAIGN FUNDRAISING. HE SAYS IT’S UNLIKELY, BUT THERE IS A CHANCE CALIFORNIA COULD SEE TWO REPUBLICANS IN THE GENERAL ELECTION IN NOVEMBER. HERE’S PART OF OUR CONVERSATION. PAUL, WE REALLY APPRECIATE YOU BEING HERE TODAY. THANKS FOR HAVING ME. SO, PAUL, YOU BUILT A DATA TOOL THAT ALLOWS PEOPLE TO INPUT POLLING NUMBERS, CAMPAIGN SPENDING, SORT OF SPIT OUT WHAT THE SCENARIO COULD END UP IN NOVEMBER. YEAH, RIGHT NOW IT HAS A 12% CHANCE THAT A REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN COULD END UP BEING THE GOVERNOR’S RACE. JUST IS THAT HOW IS THAT POSSIBLE? SO THIS IS SOMETHING THAT FOR THE LAST SEVERAL MONTHS, I’VE HAD REPORTERS AND OTHERS CALLING ME AND SAYING, YOU KNOW, WE HAVE THESE POLLS WHERE REPUBLICANS ARE LIKE, MAYBE THE FIRST AND SECOND CANDIDATES IN A POLL. IS IT POSSIBLE THEY COULD BOTH MAKE IT INTO THE RUNOFF IN NOVEMBER, GIVEN THE STATE’S TOP TWO PRIMARY? AND SO IT’S ONE THING TO JUST TO SAY, WELL, WE CAN DISMISS THAT. THAT’S NOT LIKELY TO HAPPEN. IT’S NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE. BUT WHAT I ENDED UP DOING A FEW MONTHS AGO IS I STARTED DOING THIS LITTLE PROGRAM FOR MYSELF, WHERE I CREATED A PROGRAM THAT LOOKED AT THE POLLING AND BASICALLY RAN A SIMULATION OF THE ELECTION. BUT WHEN YOU RUN SIMULATIONS, YOU HAVE TO ACCOUNT FOR DIFFERENT PROBABILITIES. SO I ACTUALLY SET IT UP TO RUN 1000 SIMULATIONS OR 5000 SIMULATIONS. AND THEN I STARTED MAKING IT MORE SOPHISTICATED, LIKE LOOKING AT FUNDRAISING AND OTHER THINGS AND DECIDED, LIKE, I’M GETTING SO MANY QUESTIONS ABOUT IT, LET’S JUST MAKE THIS A PUBLIC TOOL. SO I HAD SOME FUN WITH IT, PUT SOME FUNNY GRAPHICS TOGETHER, MADE IT SO THAT ANYBODY CAN GO IN. THEY CAN SET DIFFERENT PARAMETERS. THEY CAN SEE WHAT HAPPENS WHEN THEY RUN THAT ELECTION SIMULATION. THEY CAN EVEN MESS WITH THINGS LIKE TAKE SOME CANDIDATES OUT OF THE RACE, OR GIVE SOMEBODY $100 MILLION INDEPENDENT EXPENDITURE AND THEN RERUN IT TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS. AND IT’S A IT IS A SERIOUS TOOL AND THAT IT’S LITERALLY USING MATH. AND A LOT OF THE SAME MODELING THAT LIKE A NATE SILVER OR SOMEBODY WOULD BE DOING TO KIND OF PROJECT. SO IT’S SERIOUS IN THE MATH, BUT IT’S TRYING TO BE PLAYFUL IN HOW WE LOOK AT THIS SO FAR OUT BECAUSE, YOU KNOW, POLLING IS ONLY SO DETERMINATIVE THIS FAR OUT. THE THERE’S A LOT THAT’S GOING TO HAPPEN. AND AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE ELECTION, I’M SURE THERE WILL BE A LOT MORE CLARITY. PLAYFUL WITH THE NUMBERS BUT STILL SHOWING THIS SLIGHT CHANCE. THE SLIGHT CHANCE AND IT YOU KNOW, IT ISN’T SOMETHING THAT SHOULD BE DISMISSED. I MEAN, IF IF THERE WAS A 12% CHANCE OF ME GETTING AN ACCIDENT DRIVING OVER HERE, WE’D BE DOING THIS BY ZOOM. THERE’S NO WAY I WOULD GET IN THE CAR. SO, LIKE. AND WE HAVE TO BE CONCERNED IN OUR LIVES ABOUT THINGS THAT ARE SMALL PROBABILITIES. AND THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY SHOULD BE CONCERNED ABOUT THIS SMALL PROBABILITY THAT TWO REPUBLICANS MAKE THE RUNOFF, BECAUSE IT COULD REALLY POLITICALLY DECIMATE THEM FOR NOVEMBER, EVEN SO MUCH AS, YOU KNOW, IMPACTING THAT PROP 50 RESULT AND THE COMPETITIVE CONGRESSIONAL RACES THAT COULD REPUBLICANS COULD WIN, IMPACTING BALLOT MEASURES, IMPACTING OTHER STATEWIDE RACES. THE REALITY IS, IS THAT IF TWO REPUBLICANS WERE ON THE BALLOT IN NOVEMBER, DEMOCRATIC TURNOUT WOULD BE SO DECIMATED THAT IT WOULD DRAMATICALLY IMPACT THE POLITICS STATEWIDE AND POTENTIALLY NATIONALLY. AND SO I WAS PUTTING THIS OUT THERE AS KIND OF A SOUND, THE ALARM FOR SOME PEOPLE WHO ARE ASKING QUESTIONS ABOUT WHAT’S THE LIKELY OUTCOME. WELL, SOME PEOPLE ARE GATHERING IN SAN FRANCISCO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE CALIFORNIA DEMOCRATIC PARTY IS HAVING ITS CONVENTION THERE, WHERE THEY COULD ENDORSE A CANDIDATE FOR GOVERNOR. I MEAN, HOW IMPORTANT IS IT THAT THEY DO THAT? COULD A CALIFORNIA DEMOCRATIC PARTY ENDORSEMENT MAYBE HELP WITH THIS SCENARIO? WELL, DEFINITELY DEMOCRATIC PARTY ENDORSEMENT FOR ONE OF THESE CANDIDATES COULD MASSIVELY ELEVATE THEM. BUT I DON’T THINK THAT IT’S LIKELY TO HAPPEN. THERE’S A 60% THRESHOLD. I THINK IT IS. AND ALL THESE CANDIDATES THAT ARE RUNNING HAVE THEIR OWN POLITICAL BASES. AND I DON’T THINK THAT IN THE NEXT WEEK AND A HALF, YOU KNOW, THAT VOTERS, THE VOTERS IN THE DELEGATION PROCESS AT THE CONVENTION ARE GOING TO END UP RALLYING BEHIND ONE OF THESE CANDIDATES. SO I DON’T THINK THAT THEY’LL HAVE A PARTY ENDORSEMENT. BUT YOU MIGHT START SEEING OTHER POLITICAL LEADERS COME OUT AND START DOING ENDORSEMENTS. ADAM SCHIFF ENDORSING RECENTLY, THERE ARE OTHER PEOPLE WHO COULD MAKE AN IMPACT ON THIS RACE, POTENTIALLY. AND THERE MIGHT BE MORE IMPETUS FOR THEM TO RALLY BEHIND CANDIDATES GOING INTO ELECTION DAY IF THEY’RE CONCERNED THAT THEY COULD END UP WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF A REPUBLICAN ON REPUBLICAN GENERAL. I ALSO ASKED PAUL MITCHELL ABOUT THE LIKELIHOOD WE COULD SEE GOVERNOR NEWSOM ENDORSE ONE
Will California voters have to decide between two Republicans for governor? | California Politics 360
Updated: 8:25 AM PST Feb 15, 2026
With so many Democratic candidates in the race to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom, there’s a slight chance California voters will end up choosing between two Republicans in the general election for governor. Newsom terms out after this year and legally cannot run again. The rare opportunity for Republicans would be the result of California’s “top two” primary system that allows a race’s top two vote getters in the primary election to move forward to the November election, regardless of political party. It would be a political earthquake in a Democratic-led state that has not elected a Republican to statewide office in two decades. Political Data Inc. and elections expert Paul Mitchell joined California Politics 360 to discuss the possibility. He created a new online tool that allows anyone to input polling numbers, campaign spending and other data to show what the governor’s race could look like in November. “It’s one thing to say ‘we can dismiss that, that’s not likely to happen, it’s never happened before,” Mitchell said, stating he began running simulations on his own before creating the public tool. “It isn’t something that should be dismissed,” Mitchell noted of the 12% chance of the Republican-on-Republican race. “The Democratic Party should be concerned about this small probability that two Republicans make the runoff because it could politically decimate them in November.” The California Democratic Party is holding its convention this upcoming weekend where they could endorse one of the Democratic candidates. Mitchell said that would massively help, but it’s unlikely noting one candidate would need to win over 60% of the delegates.”All these candidates that are running have their own political bases and I don’t think in the next week and a half are going to end up rallying around one of these candidates,” Mitchell said. Mitchell said there could be more impetus moving forward for groups and people to step up and rally behind one person if they think the Republican-on-Republican scenario remains closer to election day. Watch the full interview below: See more coverage of top California stories here | Download our app | Subscribe to our morning newsletter | Find us on YouTube here and subscribe to our channelKCRA 3 Political Director Ashley Zavala reports in-depth coverage of top California politics and policy issues. She is also the host of “California Politics 360.” Get informed each Sunday at 8:30 a.m. on KCRA 3.
With so many Democratic candidates in the race to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom, there’s a slight chance California voters will end up choosing between two Republicans in the general election for governor.
Newsom terms out after this year and legally cannot run again.
The rare opportunity for Republicans would be the result of California’s “top two” primary system that allows a race’s top two vote getters in the primary election to move forward to the November election, regardless of political party. It would be a political earthquake in a Democratic-led state that has not elected a Republican to statewide office in two decades.
Political Data Inc. and elections expert Paul Mitchell joined California Politics 360 to discuss the possibility. He created a new online tool that allows anyone to input polling numbers, campaign spending and other data to show what the governor’s race could look like in November.
“It’s one thing to say ‘we can dismiss that, that’s not likely to happen, it’s never happened before,” Mitchell said, stating he began running simulations on his own before creating the public tool.
“It isn’t something that should be dismissed,” Mitchell noted of the 12% chance of the Republican-on-Republican race. “The Democratic Party should be concerned about this small probability that two Republicans make the runoff because it could politically decimate them in November.”
The California Democratic Party is holding its convention this upcoming weekend where they could endorse one of the Democratic candidates. Mitchell said that would massively help, but it’s unlikely noting one candidate would need to win over 60% of the delegates.
“All these candidates that are running have their own political bases and I don’t think in the next week and a half are going to end up rallying around one of these candidates,” Mitchell said.
Mitchell said there could be more impetus moving forward for groups and people to step up and rally behind one person if they think the Republican-on-Republican scenario remains closer to election day.
Watch the full interview below:
See more coverage of top California stories here | Download our app | Subscribe to our morning newsletter | Find us on YouTube here and subscribe to our channel
KCRA 3 Political Director Ashley Zavala reports in-depth coverage of top California politics and policy issues. She is also the host of “California Politics 360.” Get informed each Sunday at 8:30 a.m. on KCRA 3.