Analysis: How La Niña and a snow drought are creating a recipe for wildfire disaster
The sudden wildfire crisis gripping the Central and Southern Plains is the result of a rare, high-impact alignment of meteorological and environmental factors known as a Southern Plains Wildfire Outbreak (SPWO).
While these events represent only 3% of reported wildfires in the region, they historically account for nearly half of the total acreage burned.
The current crisis is being fueled by a snow drought that left lower-elevation grasslands exposed and dry earlier than normal, followed by record-breaking February heat and powerful wind gusts exceeding 60–70 mph.
Beyond the immediate weather, a critical fuel loading issue from the previous year is amplifying the danger.
Above-average precipitation in 2025 led to exceptional grass growth across Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas.
Now that this vegetation has become freeze-cured and dormant, it has transformed into a vast, highly flammable carpet of fuel.
When paired with a weak La Niña climate pattern—which typically brings warmer and drier conditions to the Plains—even a minor spark can ignite fires that are virtually impossible to contain.
Today’s forecast of 60 mph winds and critically low humidity (10%) combined with the dry grasses across the landscape could produce massive wildland fires that spread out of control, threatening millions of people across 8 states.