With California’s next governor’s race taking shape, a new Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics survey finds Republican Steve Hilton leading a crowded primary field, while Democratic voters remain divided, and a sizable share of voters are still undecided.
The poll shows Hilton at 17%, followed by Democrat Rep. Eric Swalwell at 14% and Republican Sheriff Chad Bianco at 14%. Former Democrat Rep. Katie Porter is at 10% and Democrat Tom Steyer at 9%. Another 21% of voters are undecided.
The California primary selects the top two candidates with the most votes, regardless of party preference.
2026 California Governor Poll. (Courtesy: Emerson College Polling)
Since December, support for Hilton and Steyer increased by five points, support for Swalwell increased by two points, and support for Porter decreased by one point.
“The Republican electorate in California is split between Steve Hilton (38%) and Chad Bianco (37%), while Hilton also picks up a plurality of independent voter support at 22%,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Democratic voters have not yet clearly coalesced around one candidate: 23% of Democrats support Eric Swalwell, 14% support Porter, 12% Steyer and 22% are undecided.”
The survey also measured approval ratings for several political figures. Gov. Gavin Newsom’s approval rating stands at 44%, while 45% disapprove of the job he is doing. That reflects a three-point decrease in Newsom’s approval rating since the December survey and a six-point increase in disapproval.
President Donald Trump has a 62% disapproval rating among California voters, while 32% approve of the job he is doing.
Sen. Alex Padilla has a 42% approval rating among California voters and a 32% disapproval rating. In comparison, 35% approve of the job Sen. Adam Schiff is doing, while 40% disapprove.
The cost of living continues to weigh heavily on California residents: 53% of voters say they have considered leaving the state because of it, while 47% say they have not.
When asked about the single biggest strain on their household budget, 28% cited housing, 21% utilities, 17% groceries and 9% health care. Another 11% said they experience no real strain on their household budget.
Top issues facing Californians:
Economy – 37%, up three points from DecemberHousing affordability – 19%Threats to democracy – 16%Immigration – 8%Health care – 6%Crime – 5%