With Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom barred by law from seeking a third term, California has its most wide-open contest for governor in a generation.

At least nine Democrats have filed paperwork to run with the name recognition and fundraising ability to seriously compete.

That list includes current and former members of Congress – Rep. Eric Swalwell, former Reps. Katie Porter and Xavier Becerra, who later served as U.S. secretary of Health and Human Services; billionaire Tom Steyer; San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan; former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa; former state Controller Betty Yee; schools Superintendent Tony Thurmond; and Ian Calderon, former majority leader in the state Assembly.

The two Republicans in the race – Steve Hilton, commentator and former Fox News contributor who previously worked for conservative British Prime Minister David Cameron, and Chad Bianco, Riverside County sheriff – are leading in the polls in the heavily Democratic state.

With so many Democratic candidates, party insiders fear an historic calamity is in the making. It’s mathematically possible that Democrats divide their votes so much that the two Republicans – Hilton and Bianco – advance from the June primary to the general election.

The uncertainty is the result of California’s “top-two” primary system. All candidates appear on a single ballot but only the top two finishers advance to the November general election, regardless of party.

While it remains a decided longshot, there’s a very real chance there could be only Republicans on November’s ballot.

Polling in late January underscores just how fluid the race remains. Bianco and Hilton are at the top with 17-18% support, while Democrats Porter and Swalwell trail close behind in the low teens. Mahan, newly entered, registers at 5%, with a large bloc of undecided voters.

In California, registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans 45% to 25%, and 23% left-leaning independents. It’s virtually impossible for either Hilton or Bianco to defeat any single Democrat in a one-on-one race in November.

Hedge fund billionaire Steyer – who is touting a far-left “affordability” platform – has already poured $38 million of his own money into his campaign and has blanketed the state in TV and digital ads.

Steyer has far outspent his competitors. He’s followed by Hilton and Porter, with both just under $6 million in fundraising as of Feb. 3.

Mahan’s Jan. 29 decision to enter the governor’s race has injected fresh energy into the contest. He’s someone to keep an eye on.

Mahan, 43, is a moderate and has been a rare Democratic critic of Newsom on crime and homelessness. First elected mayor in 2022, he was re-elected in 2024, winning 87% of the vote.

Mahan became one of the main proponents of Prop 36 in 2024, which Californians overwhelmingly passed with 70% approval, increasing penalties for hard drug possession and retail theft. It was opposed by Newsom.

On homelessness, Mahan has shifted San Jose’s approach by building safe, interim shelter sites that have reduced the number of people living on the street by a third.

Since launching his candidacy, Mahan has quickly raised $8.5 million for his campaign. Much of that funding has come from wealthy Silicon Valley executives and investors.

Google co-founder Sergey Brin and Palantir co-founder Joe Lonsdale are among the Silicon Valley elite to contribute. Businessman and former Los Angeles mayoral candidate Rick Caruso also contributed.

Mahan’s candidacy highlights a central question in the race, whether there is room in this crowded field for a moderate Democrat.

 It’s also a test of the top-two primary that was designed to elect people like him – candidates who can attract Republican and independent voters as well as Democrats.

March 6 is the next big date in California’s governor race. That’s the deadline for candidates to add or drop their names from the ballot.

E-mail Jim Hartman at [email protected].