(Inside California Politics) — This week on Inside California Politics, two political insiders break down an exclusive poll of the governor’s race.

Plus, host Nikki Laurenzo sits down with new Senate President Pro Tem Monique Limón.

Hilton leads new poll

Conservative commentator Steve Hilton leads the field with 17%, followed by Democratic U.S. Rep. Eric Swalwell and Republican Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, who are tied at 14%.

Two more Democrats round out the top five: former U.S. Rep. Katie Porter at 10% and billionaire Tom Steyer at 9%.

Those figures come from a new Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics survey of 1,000 likely voters released earlier this week.

Read more: Republican Steve Hilton surges ahead in California governor’s race

Republican political strategist Rob Stutzman said Steyer’s inability to reach double figures shows a ceiling for how effective the self-funding candidate’s ad buying can be.

“His money may not really be working to elevate him,” Stutzman said.

Steyer is “nakedly” trying to win the endorsements of California’s powerful unions, he said, promising to pursue progressive policies if he’s elected governor.

“Some might suggest he’s pandering — but that’s how you win a close election,” Stutzman said.

However, some rank-and-file union members may have a hard time with backing a billionaire, according to Democratic consultant Andrew Acosta.

“It’s really complicated for him to walk that [line],” he said.

All-GOP election?

There’s still a small possibility that Hilton and Bianco both emerge from the crowded primary, Stutzman said — “unlikely, but you can’t write that off yet.”

He gave the scenario a 10% chance of happening, though Stutzman said Democrats would likely immediately work to recall the new governor in that scenario.

“Mathematically, it could happen,” he said.

Hilton’s current lead over Bianco comes particularly from independents, according to the poll. But 30% of independents and 22% of Democrats say they are still undecided.

“There’s a very large swath that’s up for grabs,” Acosta said.

No more ‘smoke-filled rooms’

With the California Democratic Convention coming this weekend and the March 6 filing deadline looming, time is running out for candidates to drop out of the race.

Acosta thinks party insiders are unlikely to convince many contenders to withdraw from the wide-open contest.

“I think the days of the smoke-filled room are sort of over,” he said.

Stutzman said former Los Angeles Mayor and Assembly Speaker Antonio Villaraigosa is a candidate to watch in the next week, though. The strategist said the Democratic candidate is currently spending big on TV ads to see if he can break through in the polls.

“If not, I would think he’s a top candidate to maybe not stay in this race past the filing deadline,” Stutzman said.

Full interview with Limón

Inside California Politics host Nikki Laurenzo sat down with Monique Limón for an interview about the new Senate president pro tem’s first session as the chamber’s top Democrat.

Limón, the first Latina to hold the position, said leadership in the Legislature wasn’t something she planned for when she was first elected to the Assembly in 2016.

“This wasn’t something that I necessarily saw for myself, in part because there haven’t been a lot of people like myself in these roles,” she said. “I think you don’t always envision those things that you can’t imagine.”

The Senate leader discussed other topics, including her caucus’ approach to the deficit.

One-time fixes won’t achieve the long-term savings the state needs, Limón said.

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