California’s first truly open governor’s race in more than 15 years has attracted so many candidates that the state’s Democratic Party has been grappling with a surprising question at its convention in San Francisco this weekend: What if their party is shut out of the election?
If the idea of no Democrats participating in the November governor’s race sounds absurd, consider California’s jungle primary system. Most other states conduct primaries through political parties, with each party selecting a candidate to put forward in the general election. But California runs all candidates together in one big primary election, with the top two vote-getters advancing to the general regardless of party.
Democrats vastly outnumber Republicans in California. But polls suggest that this year’s candidate field is unique. Two Republicans – Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and former Fox News pundit Steve Hilton – have emerged as the leading contenders for their party, consolidating the conservative vote and dividing it about evenly. But Democrats’ prospective support is split among nine candidates, making it less likely any of them will get enough votes on their own to advance to the general.
That’s setting the stage for a potential disaster for California Democrats, said Paul Mitchell, a Democratic political strategist considered the state’s preeminent voting data expert. Not only would it guarantee a Republican governor in liberal California, it would also possibly doom Democrats down the ballot.
Former Rep. Katie Porter, a candidate for governor, delivers remarks during the California Democratic Party convention at Moscone Center in San Francisco on Feb. 21, 2026. (Yalonda M. James/S.F. Chronicle)
Rusty Hicks, the state party chairman, said he’s monitoring the situation but isn’t worried yet. He expects some of the candidates will drop out over the next two months simply because they will struggle to raise enough money to continue their campaigns. But he also said the party will step in at some point to ensure a Democrat makes the top two.
“The party and its allies are prepared to do whatever is required to ensure that we have a strong candidate coming out of a primary that puts us in the best possible position to win the general election,” he told the Chronicle on Saturday. He declined to reveal exactly how he and other party leaders plan to do that.
California voters last year passed new maps designed to flip five congressional seats from Republican to Democratic control in the midterm elections this year to counter new maps drawn by Republicans in Texas to flip the same number of seats in the opposite direction.
Mitchell, who led the drawing of California’s new congressional maps, said that the expected flips will only happen if there’s a Democratic candidate for governor to motivate Democrats to turn out in the first place. Without that, more Republicans in many down ballot races could win. That’s true for congressional seats, state legislative districts, less powerful statewide offices and liberal ballot measures.
“No Democrat advancing to the general election would be catastrophic,” Mitchell said.
That scenario is unlikely, but not impossible. Mitchell built a website to illustrate what the odds of such an outcome are. It factors in recent polling and fundraising data to predict how much of the vote each candidate might expect to win in the primary and runs simulated elections to predict how likely a lockout would be.
On Saturday, his website pegged that possibility at about 17%.
That’s too high for comfort for some California Democrats.
California Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks Rusty Hicks said he expects some of the candidates will drop out over the next two months simply because they will struggle to raise enough money to continue their campaigns. (Lea Suzuki/S.F. Chronicle)
“I’m very worried about it,” said Rep. Dave Min, D-Costa Mesa, who supports former Orange County Rep. Katie Porter in the race. He added that some of the longshot candidates should consider dropping out. “If you don’t have a chance, if you’re not raising the money, you don’t have the profile, then maybe you need to take one for the team here.”
A poll this month from Emerson College found Hilton in the lead with 17% and Bianco tied with Rep. Eric Swalwell, D-Castro Valley, at 14%. Porter came in fourth place with 10% followed by billionaire Democrat Tom Steyer at 9%. Former Health and Humans Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, former Los Angeles Mayor Tony Villaraigosa, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, former Controller Betty Yee, state schools chief Tony Thurmond and former Assembly Member Ian Calderon – all Democrats – each received less than 5%.
The state party also has not reached a consensus in the race. In endorsement voting Saturday, none of the eight Democrats competing received more than 25% of votes from delegates, far short of the 60% threshold needed to secure the party’s endorsement. (Mahan was not among those considered because he declared his candidacy too late to be included in the Saturday vote.)
At a Commonwealth Club event held near the convention Friday evening, even just the prospect of two Republicans making it to the general election drew a chorus of groans from the crowd.
San Francisco Democratic Party Chair Nancy Tung, who had been asking Calderon about the possibility, defended her framing of the question despite the reaction from the audience.
“This is a possibility,” she insisted.
Calderon, who represented part of Los Angeles County in the Legislature, garnered less than 1% of the vote in the Emerson College poll.
Former Assembly Member Ian Calderon, a candidate for governor, delivers remarks during the California Democratic Party convention at Moscone Center in San Francisco on Feb. 21, 2026. (Yalonda M. James/S.F. Chronicle)
Calderon brushed off the question, saying he doesn’t believe Republicans will shut out Democrats in the general. He noted that a high portion of voters say they’re still undecided – 21% in the Emerson poll. He rejected the idea that he should leave the race and suggested that it was actually the higher-polling candidates who should drop out because they had hit a ceiling. As people start to pay more attention to the election, he said, he believes his message will win them over.
“My challenge is access to resources and visibility, which is something that could literally change within a day,” he said. “For me, it’s just waiting for my moment.”
This article originally published at ‘I’m very worried’: California Dems confront possibility of an all-GOP governor race.