Sean Barnard details his preview and prediction for Sunday’s Boston Celtics Los Angeles Lakers NBA matchup.
Tipping off at 6:30 p.m. ET across an 11-game NBA slate, the Boston Celtics will face off with the Los Angeles Lakers.
This is the second and final matchup between these two teams this season. They faced off on December 5th, resulting in a 126-105 victory for the Celtics. It is worth noting that both Luka Doncic and LeBron James missed this matchup, so the outlook is a bit different for tonight.
Looking at the odds, the Celtics are narrow 1.5-point favorites and hold -125 odds on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The game’s total is set at O/U 229.5 points.
This article will look at a preview and prediction for the Sunday night matchup.
Celtics at Lakers Preview
The Celtics sit in second place in the Eastern Conference with a 36-19 record on the year. They picked up a 121-110 victory over the Warriors in their first game back from the All-Star break, and have won seven of their last eight games entering tonight. Boston has gone 31-24 against the spread, and the game total has remained under in 34 of 55 games.
Jaylen Brown has ascended to a true 1A option on this Celtics team while Jayson Tatum continues to recover from an Achilles tear. The five-time All-Star is averaging 29.2 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 4.8 assists. Derrick White adds 17.1 points, 5.6 assists, and 4.4 rebounds per game, while Payton Pritchard contributes 17.4 points and 5.4 assists per game. The Celtics traded for Nikola Vucevic at the trade deadline, and he has averaged 12.5 points and 8.5 rebounds in his first four games with the team. Neemias Queta, Sam Hauser, and Jordan Walsh each also play key roles in the rotation.
The Celtics average 115.4 points per game, which ranks 18th in the league. They also rank second in offensive rating, 17th in field goal percentage, and ninth in three-point percentage while attempting the third-most perimeter shots in the league. Defensively, opponents are scoring the second-fewest points against them at 108.4 per contest. Boston also ranks eighth in defensive rating, third in opponents’ field goal percentage, and 17th in opponents’ three-point percentage.
The Lakers enter with a 34-21 record on the season, which slots them at fifth place in the Western Conference. They produced a 125-122 victory over the Clippers in the first game back from the All-Star break, and enter this matchup having won five of their last seven games. Los Angeles has gone 30-25 against the spread, and the game total is 31-24 to the over/under.
Luka Doncic headlines the production, leading the NBA with 33.0 points per game, along with 8.6 assists and 7.8 rebounds. Austin Reaves adds 25.6 points, 5.9 assists, and 5.1 rebounds, while LeBron James has averaged 21.7 points, 7.2 assists, and 5.7 rebounds per game. Deandre Ayton, Rui Hachimura, Marcus Smart, and Jaxson Hayes each also play notable roles in the rotation. The Lakers brought in Luke Kennard at the trade deadline, who is adding 9.8 points, 2.8 rebounds, and 2.4 assists in his first five games.
As a team, the Lakers are scoring 116.2 points per game, which ranks 16th in the league. They rank 10th in offensive rating, first in team field goal percentage, and 17th in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 116.1 points per game against the Lakers, which ranks 19th in the NBA. Los Angeles also ranks 24th in defensive rating, 27th in opponents’ field goal percentage, and 22nd in opponents’ three-point percentage.
Celtics at Lakers Prediction, Best Bet
It is tough to take away much from the first matchup between these two teams, given that Luka Doncic and LeBron James were not on the floor. But both teams have provided plenty of data regarding who they are since this point.
The three-point battle will play a notable role in this matchup. The Celtics attempt the third-most three-point attempts per game and connect at the ninth-best efficiency. They will be facing a Lakers’ defense that ranks 15th in opponents’ three-point attempts allowed and 22nd in opponents’ three-point percentage. In contrast, the Lakers rank 24th in three-point volume and 17th in three-point percentage. They will be taking on a Celtics’ defense that ranks 26th in three-point attempts allowed and 17th in opponents’ three-point percentage.
However, the process of creating these perimeter looks is much different for both sides. The Celtics have built an identity playing five-out basketball, spacing the floor and allowing Jaylen Brown to drive and create for others. In contrast, much of the Lakers’ perimeter attempts come from Luka Doncic hoisting step-back attempts from well beyond the arc. The NBA’s leading scorer also leads the league with 3.7 made three-pointers per game on 10.4 perimeter attempts.
For all that Doncic brings to the table offensively, he leaves plenty to be desired on the defensive end, which the Celtics are sure to be ready to attack. The root of a significant portion of the Lakers’ defensive breakdowns has been Doncic’s inability or unwillingness to provide adequate perimeter resistance. Count on it being a point of emphasis to get Doncic switched onto Jaylen Brown and for this to play right into the Celtics’ desired style of attack.
In addition, Boston has proven capable of being able to limit teams on the defensive end. They are holding opponents to the second-fewest points per game, the third-worst shooting percentage, and rank eighth in defensive rating. The Celtics can win games in defensive battles or high-scoring affairs. Between the defensive advantage and the three-point shooting outlook, expect the Celtics to pave the way to a win tonight.