President Obama in advertisement: California, the whole nation is counting on you. Democracy is on the ballot Nov. 4.
Narrator voice: California voters stopped rigged elections with an independent commission run by citizens. Prop 50 cancels this historic reform.
Narrator voice: Vota sí a la proposición cincuenta.

Katrina Schwartz: Proposition 50 would redistrict California with an eye towards the upcoming midterm elections. And its sponsors don’t mince words. It’s designed to give Democrats the best chance possible to pick up seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. Today on Bay Curious, we explore the ins and outs of Proposition 50. By the end, you’ll understand how district maps are drawn, the impacts this proposition would have on the Bay Area, and how this singleton proposition got on the ballot in a year when normally we’d have a break from propositions. Stay with us. 

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Katrina Schwartz: Today we’re shedding light on California’s Proposition 50. On your ballot, it reads like this.
Gabriela Glueck: Authorizes temporary changes to congressional district maps in response to Texas’s partisan redistricting.
Katrina Schwartz: Joining me today is Guy Marzorati, correspondent on KQED’s California Politics and Government Desk. He’s been covering Proposition 50 for KQED. Welcome, Guy. 

Guy Marzorati: Thanks so much for having me. 

Katrina Schwartz: I want to start with a quick refresher for folks on a few basic concepts related to Proposition 50. First off, what is redistricting? 

Guy Marzorati: So redistricting is the drawing of political maps to reflect changes in population. So we know that every state gets divided into congressional districts. These congressional districts have equal size. So California is a big state. We have 52 congressional districts. What happens is we take a measurement of the population, that’s the census, and then when the population changes, people move around. So districts have to change too to make sure they’re still equal sizes. And there’s a couple of different ways you can do redistricting. In a lot of cases, it’s the state legislatures that are drawing maps. And they sometimes have a couple different goals. One is: help whatever party’s in power. That’s called gerrymandering. Basically, when the lines are being drawn to either help Republicans or help Democrats, or in some cases to help everyone who’s in office just stay in office. 

So that’s one path. But then there’s another way to do redistricting, which is how we have it in California. And we have a commission of average citizens who get together, take input from residents, and draw districts based on what they’re hearing from people who are living here. 

What’s really changing right now in 2025 is we’re seeing this battle over redistricting break out across the country in the middle of a decade, right? We haven’t taken a new census. This is simply different states that are trying to gain partisan advantage in their political maps, either by helping Democrats or helping Republicans. And Prop 50 is in the middle of this national redistricting fight where Democrats in California are trying to redraw the maps to help their party win more seats in Congress. 

Katrina Schwartz: And this acceleration of gerrymandering is in part because of some rulings from the Supreme Court that really set the stage for more gerrymandering, right? 

Guy Marzorati: That’s right. The Supreme Court has said they don’t really want to wade into fights over partisan redistricting. So they’re not gonna take up challenges to maps that are unquestionably biased towards Republicans or biased towards Democrats. And so what we’ve seen is states continue along this path of doing gerrymandered maps. 

Yes, it’s been practiced for decades by both political parties. But what we’ve seen this year is President Trump take the unprecedented step of actually going to states and saying, I want you to redraw your lines to help Republicans. 

So it started in Texas – Trump you know, went and asked the Texas legislature to redraw their lines to give Republicans five additional seats in Congress. But this just keeps escalating, beyond Texas, beyond California. Republicans are pursuing seats through a redraw of maps in Missouri, in redistricting in Kansas, in North Carolina – Democrats have introduced plans to pick up a seat in Maryland. And the Supreme Court is also considering a case about the use of race in drawing congressional maps that could potentially change how gerrymandered maps are challenged in the future.

Katrina Schwartz: So in the language of the proposition, it states that this is in response to actions taken in Texas. Can you walk us through what happened in Texas and why it matters here in California? 

Guy Marzorati: The House is very closely divided right now, and any alteration to the map, any kind of change to the district lines could really decide the control of Congress in 2026. So Trump went to Texas, pressured them to take this move. Texas responded, redrew their map to help Republicans. As this was happening, Governor Gavin Newsom in California, other Democrats in California, started having meetings and discussing, ‘okay, what can we do to respond to this?’ And ultimately that resulted in Proposition 50. 

The legislature voted to put this on the ballot. The key difference between California and Texas is: in California, this change has to happen only with the permission of voters. California has this independent commission that draws district lines. Voters created that system. So it has to be taken to voters if any change is going to be made to that.
Music break

Katrina Schwartz: Okay, so let’s dig in on what exactly the proposition would do. 

Guy Marzorati: This would redraw California’s congressional maps. And it’s worth noting, the commission also draws lines for the state legislature. Those are not being affected at all by Proposition 50. This is just for US congressional maps, House districts. So it’s estimated that these new maps would favor Democrats by helping them pick up up to five new seats that are currently held by Republicans. 

In doing so, it puts a pause on the current maps that we have that were created by the Independent Commission back in 2021 and that were really regarded as fair, I think, by a lot of election analysts and that have really created very competitive elections, right? 

When you draw maps in order to favor one party or the other, you’re gonna result often in fewer competitive elections. And if you compare California to other large states such as Texas, such as Florida, just in the last decade, we’ve had far more competitive House elections than these other states because our lines are not drawn to protect political incumbents. They’re not drawn to help Democrats or Republicans. 

And so what this Proposition 50 is saying is let’s set aside the independent maps for the 2026, 2028, and 2030 elections and put in place these maps favoring Democrats. The way the measure is written, we’d go back to the citizen redistricting process after 2030 — that’s because there would be a new census in 2030, the commission meets after that and draws new lines for the 2032 elections.

Katrina Schwartz: So How exactly does the California Citizens Redistricting Commission create these fairer maps? Like how are they made up? 

Guy Marzorati: So the commission itself is made up of 14 members. You have five Democrats, five Republicans, and then four who are not registered with either political party. And so this commission, it’s citizens from around the state who apply, who get chosen to be on the commission. And one of the key metrics or key things that the commission really focuses on is this idea of communities of interest. And I talked to Pedro Toledo, who’s the current chair of the independent commission, and he explained kind of how commissioners think about these communities of interest and why they matter when you’re drawing political maps. 

Pedro Toledo: Every community is different. The issues that a community in the Central Valley might care about, maybe water or some of the healthcare issues that are prevalent out there, some of the lack of healthcare, the lack of infrastructure, might be very different in a more urban settings. And that matters because one would hope that the elected official that a community elects would represent those issues in Congress. 

Guy Marzorati: And I’ll note, you know, Princeton University rates the different redistrictings in each state. They gave California a B score on partisan fairness. But if adopted, they say the Proposition 50 maps would get an F. So it gives you a sense of the direction California would be going when it comes to nonpartisan maps. 

In theory, you know ,Proposition 50 would replace the work of the commission until 2030. But there is a lot of skepticism, I think, from opponents of this who feel like when is the deescalation going to happen, right? We see states just competing, competing, trying to change their maps in more and more partisan ways. Is California really gonna step away from that and go back to more of an independent system? 

Katrina Schwartz: So this is really a departure from what was a fairly non partisan way of redistricting to one that is overtly partisan. 

Guy Marzorati: Yeah, that’s right. And I think look, even like supporters of Proposition 50 realize that in a vacuum, doing away with citizens drawn maps is unpopular. What I think they would argue is this is not happening in a vacuum. This is happening as part of a wider fight across the country. This battle for control of the House of Representatives, and Democrats who are supporting Prop 50 say: ‘The stakes are too high for us to just simply be focusing on good governance. We need to retake the House of Representatives.’

Katrina Schwartz: What kind of local impacts could this have on the Bay Area? 

Guy Marzorati: One is in Sonoma County, where Sonoma is now gonna be paired with communities in the northern part of the state: Butte County, Tehama County. And really the point there is to take a district, currently the first district that’s controlled by a Republican, and dragging the lines down south into Sonoma County and therefore picking up all of these Democratic voters who live in Sonoma. So that’s a key part of redistricting when you’re trying to do it for partisan gain. You’re trying to bring voters from one party into a new district in hopes that they’ll change the outcome of it. And really the hope is that district would go from currently represented by a Republican to being represented by a Democrat in 2026. 

There’s another change that that’s happening in eastern Contra Costa County, where you have a lot of communities around the Carquinez Strait, the northern waterfront – from Martinez, Pittsburgh, Antioch, even across into Solano County, Vallejo that are currently grouped in this district that the commission created back in 2021 with the explicit goal of putting together working class communities that are racially diverse. 

They got a lot of input from residents who felt like, you know, communities like Richmond, Vallejo, Pittsburgh, Antioch have a lot in common and should be included in one congressional district to kind of maximize the voice of people living there. So their shared concerns about living around refineries, their shared concerns about means of transportation. If all those voters would be in the same district, whoever wins that seat would have no choice but to listen to the concerns of the community. So that was what the commission thought when they’re creating this 8th district. That district would be broken up under the Proposition 50 map. And the reason is because voters in Antioch and Pittsburgh would be moved into a Central Valley district. The strategy behind that is these are heavily Democratic voters in Pittsburgh and Antioch. They’d be moved into a Central Valley district to help a vulnerable Democratic incumbent have an easier path to re-election. 

So there’s two kinds of things at play here with Proposition 50. There’s targeting seats that are currently held by Republicans, trying to flip them to Democratic seats. There’s also seats that Democrats currently hold, but they’re a little bit tenuous. They’re kind of close competitive seats. Proposition 50 would make them less competitive. So give those Democrats an easier path to re-election. 

Katrina Schwartz: Those local impacts are actually really, really interesting, but we don’t actually hear people talking about the local impacts that much. I would say most of the campaigning for this proposition has been about the balance of power in Washington. 

Guy Marzorati: Absolutely. And that’s by design. Look, the supporters of Proposition 50 are really framing this as part of the national fight over the House of Representatives, over gerrymandering that’s breaking out in Republican states. And they want to talk about the need to win these House seats for Democrats in order to break Republican hold on power in Washington. And that’s really the argument that you’re hearing coming from the Yes on 50 campaign. The phrase they love to use is ‘you have to fight fire with fire.’ Some of the ads for Proposition 50 don’t even mention redistricting. They highlight a lot of the actions the president have t has taken that are unpopular in California and are basically saying to voters, look, you need we need to stop this, vote yes on Prop 50. 

Katrina Schwartz: It’s worth noting though that just because you redraw the districts doesn’t mean that somebody automatically wins. I mean, these candidates still have to run. They still have to convince voters to vote for them. So let’s just, you know, slow our roll a little bit, you know. 

Guy Marzorati: That’s a great point. You still actually have to have the campaigns, right? When we talk about redistricting, the end result is just okay, ‘how many Democrats live in this district and how many Republicans.’ But to your point, there still needs to be candidates that are running. There’s still everything that’s happening in the world that influences how people vote in an election. So all of that will still have to play out no matter how Proposition 50 fares. 

Katrina Schwartz: Okay, so we’ve heard a lot about what the yes side is doing. What argument is the no side making? 

Guy Marzorati: Well, the no side is really making a good government argument against gerrymandering. They’re supporting the system that we currently have right now, these maps drawn by citizens that are not focusing on helping Republicans or helping Democrats, and they say they want to keep the system that way. Now, that’s not to say that the opponents of Prop 50 don’t have partisan interests in mind. A lot of Republicans are opposing Prop 50 because if this passes, they will probably lose seats in Congress. So there is a lot of partisan interest in the opposition, but the messaging they’re putting out there is really about maintaining this system of good governance that we have. And a key messenger in that is former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger.
Narrator in advertisement: The politicians want their power back.

Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger in political advertisement: That’s what they want to do is take us backwards. That is why it is important to vote no on Proposition 50. Democracy. You’ve got to protect it and we’ve got to go and fight for it.
Guy Marzorati: Schwarzenegger was the one who helped create the Independent Commission back in 2008. And he has actually spoken out against Proposition 50. He said he opposes it, basically along the lines of two wrongs don’t make a right, just because Texas and Republican states are gerrymandering, California shouldn’t go down this path. But I’ll say it’s interesting the way in which Schwarzenegger has come out and talked about this. 

He spoke at an event at the University of Southern California. He said he’s against Prop 50. He encouraged the no vote. And it was actually the ‘No on 50’ campaign was in the crowd. They were filming it, and they used that video for an advertisement. They scrubbed out the background so it doesn’t say USC anymore, it says No on 50. But that’s interesting because Schwarzenegger himself has been a little bit hesitant to actually engage in the campaign. 

He didn’t, you know, meet up with the No on 50 campaign and create that ad. He hasn’t been out barnstorming against Prop 50. And I think that’s because he feels perhaps a little bit uncomfortable in that this has really become a Democratic versus Republican fight. Schwarzenegger does not like President Trump, not a big fan, and he’s always tried to keep a little distance from the Republican Party establishment, especially now. So he probably feels maybe caught in the middle in some way, even as he opposes Prop 50. 

Katrina Schwartz: Okay, let’s talk about campaign finance. What kind of money is being spent on the race and by whom? 

Guy Marzorati: Lot of big money pouring into this campaign. There’s been more money in support of it than against Prop 50. The yes side has like a two to one financial edge. And you’ve really seen Governor Newsom rally the Democratic establishment to give to Prop 50. We’ve seen major Democratic donors like George Soros, Tom Steyer spend a lot to support Prop 50. We’ve also seen a lot of grassroots energy. There have been small dollar donations from every single state in the country supporting Prop 50, which I do think speaks to like, yes, this is a state ballot measure. But we’re in a year where there’s not much else on the ballot. And this has gotten a lot of attention, I think, from Democrats across the country who again want to feel like they’re a part of something that’s pushing back against the administration. 

On the no side, it’s really been one big donor opposing Prop 50. That’s Charles Munger Jr. He’s a philanthropist, big Republican donor in the Bay Area. He bankrolled the measures that created the Citizens Commission back in 2008. So I think he feels this is his baby to some extent. He really supports this idea, and he’s putting a lot of money, at this point more than $30 million, to oppose Prop 50. 

Katrina Schwartz: Okay, Guy Marzorati, correspondent on KQED’s California Politics and Government Desk, thanks for breaking this down for us. 

Guy Marzorati: Thanks for having me. 

Katrina Schwartz: In a nutshell, a vote yes on Proposition 50 means you want to adopt a new legislatively-drawn districting map that could make it easier for Democrats to win seats in the House of Representatives through 2030. 

A vote no on Prop 50 means you want to keep our current map and keep redistricting in the hands of the California Citizens Redistricting Commission. 

That’s it for our episode on Prop 50. You can cast your vote in person or by mail. Registered voters should have received their ballots by now, and those must be filled out and postmarked on or before November 4th. 

Our show is made in San Francisco at Member Supported KQED.
Bay Curious is made by Gabriela Glueck, Christopher Beale, Olivia Allen-Price, and me, Katrina Schwartz, with extra support Maha Sanad, Katie Sprenger, Jen Chien, Ethan Toven-Lindsey and everyone on Team KQED. 

Some members of the KQED podcast team are represented by the Screen Actors Guild American Federation of Television and Radio Artists, San Francisco, Northern California local.