Less than 100 days from the June primary, an A-rated nonpartisan poll confirms the direction of the race to replace Gov. Newsom is unclear.
SACRAMENTO, Calif. — A new statewide survey shows no clear front-runner in the race to succeed California Gov. Gavin Newsom, with five candidates statistically tied and nearly half of likely voters not closely following the contest, less than 100 days from the June primary election.
The poll by the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California found likely voters closely divided among a mix of Democratic and Republican candidates ahead of the June primary.
According to the survey, 14% of likely voters support Republican former Fox News host Steve Hilton. Democrat and former U.S. Rep. Katie Porter received 13%, followed by Republican Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco at 12%. Democratic U.S. Rep. Eric Swalwell polled at 11%, and billionaire Democrat Tom Steyer drew 10%.
Because of the poll’s margin of error, the five candidates are effectively tied, said election data expert Paul Mitchell of Political Data Inc.
“So if one is 10 and one is 14, mathematically, they’re tied,” Mitchell said.
PPIC conducted the same survey in December 2025. Since then, pollsters note, three Democratic candidates (Matt Mahan, Steyer and Swalwell) have entered the race. Also since then, support for Democrat former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra dropped from 14% to 5%, as it did with Porter from 21% to 13%.
Meantime, support for Bianco and Hilton — the leading Republican candidates — held steady.
GOP strategist Tim Rosales, who represents GOP candidate Jon Slavet in the race — noted it’s important for polls to reflect the ballot voters will see. The PPIC poll, Rosales said, is the first to include the entire candidate field, rather than the candidates considered top tier.
The survey underscores how unsettled the race remains, with 50% of likely voters saying they are not closely following it. Still, 61% said they are satisfied with the current field of candidates.
Independent voters could play a pivotal role, though analysts caution they are less likely to participate in primary elections.
“Those are exactly the kind of voters that don’t vote in primary elections,” explained Paul Mitchell.
He added, “Those that are turning out because they’re extremely angry with what’s happening with Trump or because they’re extremely excited with what’s happening with Trump.”
Among independents surveyed, 15% support Porter, while 11% back Hilton and Steyer. Bianco received 9% support among independents and Swalwell 8%.
Among broader issues, more than 30% of respondents identified cost of living and the economy as the top state issue, while 37% said threats to democracy are the most pressing national concern.
Balancing messaging on issues is up to each candidate campaign, the politicos noted.
“Show those California voters what you will do to make their life better,” suggested Rosales. “What does this mean for my energy bill, what does this mean for my food bill?”
The poll also found Californians divided on how to address the state’s budget deficit: 43% prefer spending cuts, 39% favor a mix of cuts and tax increases, and a majority expressed support for higher taxes on the wealthy, including a proposed billionaire’s tax.
The findings suggest the race remains fluid, with months to go before voters narrow the field in California’s top-two primary system. The big question that still remains: will Democrats consolidate the candidate field prior to prevent splitting the blue vote and being boxed out by two Republicans advancing?
Chair of the state Democratic party Rusty Hicks has previously told ABC10 the party will do “whatever it takes” to advance a strong Democrat to November.
Paul Mitchell added, “If [even the underperforming Democrats] do stay in the race, they do have a responsibility that if and when they drop out, they do something to make sure the vote consolidates behind the remaining candidates.”
The elephant in the room? Newsom, who is on a nationwide book tour for his memoir, “Young Man in a Hurry,” and maintains a job performance in the 50s by Californians.
“He can walk and chew gum but whatever he does at this point will be viewed from the lens of he’s running for president,” remarked Democratic strategist Andrew Acosta.
The experts also compare the state of this race to the 1998 gubernatorial one, in which Democratic candidate Gray Davis — considered the underdog — advanced from the primary and eventually became governor, despite being heavily outspent by fellow Democrat Al Checchi.
Steyer has been the top spender so far in campaign ads — $67 million, per most recent reporting. Experts say we’ll see more campaign and independent expenditures closer to the election.
“Steyer coming up [in the polls] is a result of a massive amount of spending,” Mitchell said.
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