From top left: DJ Brookter, Theo Ellington, Gary McCoy, Manny Yekutiel
Shifting District Preferences
Since district elections resumed in 2000, only three districts have voted with ideological consistency: Districts 1 and 9 have always backed progressives, while moderates have controlled D2. That’s why the outcome of races in D4, 8 and 10 is so uncertain and even D2 may not follow historic patterns.
Now that the fields are complete, let’s take a look at these races.
District 4
In my January 6 story I said “the politics of D4 voters are complex.” This has to be one of the most up in the air supervisor races of the past 25 years. A solid case can be made for each of three candidates to win.
D4 can no longer be considered a solid conservative-moderate seat. Progressive Gordon Mar defied skeptics in winning in 2020. After four years of voting as a solid progressive, Mar only narrowly lost to Joel Engardio in 2024.
That’s why progressive Natalie Gee can win. In addition to backing from progressives, Gee will attract voters seeking a supervisor willing to put the district’s interests ahead of Mayor Lurie’s citywide agenda. Gee’s “progressive” mantle may be the right fit. Gee also benefits from being the sole woman among the top three contenders.
Voters seeking a supervisor promoting district independence will also favor conservative Albert Chow. He’s made it clear that he puts D4 interests ahead of the mayor’s. There is a large conservative voting base in D4 and Chow will be their first choice.
Incumbent Allan Wong was appointed by Lurie. This makes it hard for him to convince voters he will not align with the mayor on key issues. As I have previously noted, Wong is the only one of the three to have won past elections. He will lead the field in fundraising and his moderate values may best reflect D4 voters. Wong also got the sole endorsement of the San Francisco Democratic Party, which should help.
I suspect this race won’t be decided until all absentee votes are counted days after the election. And keep in mind that the June election only covers the balance of Engardio’s term; it’s the November contest that gives the winner four years.
District 8
District 8 elected then-moderate Mark Leno in 2000, moderate Bevan Dufty in 2002, and moderate Scott Wiener in 2010. After Wiener left for the State Senate in 2017 he was replaced by moderate appointed incumbent Jeff Sheehy. Sheehy was then defeated in the 2018 election by progressive Rafael Mandelman (some now see Mandelman as a moderate but his consistent support for tenant protections keeps him in the progressive camp).
Now the race is between Manny Yekutiel of Welcome to Manny’s fame and Gary McCoy. McCoy is endorsed by such progressives as David Campos, Public Defender Mano Raju, Mark Leno and Nancy Pelosi. So while McCoy is also backed by moderate Scott Wiener, he will be considered the progressive against moderate Yekutiel.
I see D8 as a moderate district. In 2002 when the district was still seen as potentially progressive, Bevan Dufty won a critical moderate victory over progressive stalwart Eileen Hansen. In 2018 progressive Mandelman did not face a strong moderate opponent.
Manny is best known for creating Manny’s, arguably the most successful political and policy salon San Francisco has ever seen. He’s a tremendous fundraiser whose Civic Joy Fund raises millions for the city. Will that be enough to offset McCoy’s impressive endorsement list? And McCoy’s life story that has him overcoming addition?
It’s too soon to tell. Many D8 will voters look at what Manny has accomplished and believe he could do great things as a supervisor. And McCoy’s promotion of harm reduction over recovery strategies will hurt him with moderate voters. But the election may be decided by what led to Wiener’s victory in 2010 and Mandelman’s in 2018: door knocking the district and personal meetings with voters.
Both candidates seem committed to doing so.
District 10
Progressive Sophie Maxwell won this seat in 2000. But voters turned to moderate Malia Cohen in 2010. And then went back to progressive Shamann Walton in 2018. Where will D10 go in November?
The best known candidate is Theo Ellington. Ellington grew up in Bayview and has a powerful life story. His appointments to commissions by Mayors Newsom, Lee and Breed put him squarely in the “moderate” camp.
DJ Brookter is backed by Shamann Walton and is the strongest progressive in the race. He followed Walton as Executive Director of Young Community Developers and has also served on city commissions.
J.R. Eppler is the strongest Potrero Hill-based candidate. He has also served on a city commission.
D10 has elected an African-American supervisor in every race since district elections began in 2000. I see that pattern repeating here. A victory by Ellington or Brookter would maintain African-American representation on the Board of Supervisors.
District 2
I wrote a lot about the Sherrill-Brooke race previously. Three developments have since arose.
First, Sherrill has been unfairly attacked for Mayor Breed allegedly appointing him so she could get a job with the Bloomberg organization. This false claim—Breed never got such a job—was disposed of soon after Sherrill’s appointment. But it recently resurfaced. D2 voters should ignore this falsehood and evaluate Sherrill by his performance in office.
Second, Brooke has shown she can raise enough funds to win. And that she has a strong campaign base.
Third, Sherrill got the San Francisco Democratic Party’s sole endorsement. That could mean a lot given the highly partisan tenor of the upcoming elections. Or it could mean less considering Brooke is a solid Democrat.
No progressive has ever won D2. But Brooke’s prominence in leading the opposition to tall buildings makes her an atypical progressive. Lurie’s strong support for Sherrill in the district where the mayor is most popular should carry the incumbent to victory. But Brooke definitely has a chance.
As in D4, the June D2 election simply finishes a prior term (Catherine Stefani’s). So as long as the June race is close, expect a rematch in November.
All of San Francisco’s November races face an unusual challenge: attracting attention from a voter base focused on Democrats retaking Congress and stopping Trump. This should benefit local candidates with the highest name recognition, which a Democratic Party endorsement and extensive personal contact with voters helps.
Randy Shaw is the Editor of Beyond Chron and the Director of San Francisco’s Tenderloin Housing Clinic, which publishes Beyond Chron. Shaw’s new book is the revised and updated, The Tenderloin: Sex, Crime and Resistance in the Heart of San Francisco. His prior books include Generation Priced Out: Who Gets to Live in the New Urban America. The Activist’s Handbook: Winning Social Change in the 21st Century, and Beyond the Fields: Cesar Chavez, the UFW and the Struggle for Justice in the 21st Century.