Published on Mar. 5, 2026

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At the annual TPM26 conference in Long Beach, California, attendees were forced to shift their focus from the usual container shipping industry challenges to the sudden outbreak of war between the U.S., Israel, and Iran. The conflict has led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping chokepoint, stranding hundreds of container ships and disrupting the global flow of oil and other goods. Carrier executives, logistics providers, and cargo owners could only speculate about the long-term impacts on freight rates, transit times, and the overall stability of container shipping services.

Why it matters

The Iran war has emerged as a major new “black swan” event that is upending the container shipping industry, which was already grappling with geopolitical tensions, trade disputes, and infrastructure challenges. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is causing significant supply chain disruptions, and the potential for the conflict to escalate or drag on raises concerns about the industry’s ability to provide the service stability that shippers demand.

The details

Within 48 hours of the conference, the U.S. and Israel launched missile attacks on targets across Iran, rapidly escalating the conflict to involve more than 14 countries in the Middle East. This has led to the complete halt of ocean shipping and other transportation through the critical Strait of Hormuz, with around 750 ships, including 100 containerships, backed up on either side of the blockage. The disruption is affecting shipments of 15 million barrels of oil per day, causing a 13% spike in oil prices to $82 per barrel. Carrier executives warn that oil could reach $100 per barrel if the conflict lasts more than a few weeks, further squeezing profit margins. Major container lines are being forced to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 7-12 days to transit times.

Within 48 hours before the TPM26 conference, the U.S. and Israel launched missile attacks on targets across Iran.By the third day of the conference, around 750 ships, including 100 containerships, were backed up at the shuttered Strait of Hormuz.
The players

Jeremy Nixon

Chief executive officer of Ocean Network Express (ONE), a joint venture of Japanese container lines Nippon Yusen Kaisha, Mitsui O.S.K. Lines and K Line.

Janet Yellen

Former U.S. Treasury Secretary and Federal Reserve chair, who was a keynote speaker at TPM26.

Hisham Al-Omeisy

A consultant who serves as senior Yemen adviser and head of the PfR Steering Group at the European Institute of Peace.

Paul Gruenwald

Global chief economist at S&P Global Ratings.

Trine Nielsen

Head of global ocean freight with logistics services provider Flexport.

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What they’re saying

“We must not let individuals continue to damage private property in San Francisco.”

— Robert Jenkins, San Francisco resident (San Francisco Chronicle)

“Fifty years is such an accomplishment in San Francisco, especially with the way the city has changed over the years.”

— Gordon Edgar, grocery employee (Instagram)

What’s next

The judge in the case will decide on Tuesday whether or not to allow Walker Reed Quinn out on bail.

The takeaway

This case highlights growing concerns in the community about repeat offenders released on bail, raising questions about bail reform, public safety on SF streets, and if any special laws to govern autonomous vehicles in residential and commercial areas.