Prop 50 turnout | 15% of voters have returned ballots for special California election
VOTE IN THE NOVEMBER SPECIAL ELECTION, AND MILLIONS OF CALIFORNIA VOTERS HAVE ALREADY CAST THEIR BALLOTS. SO WHERE DO WE STAND? KURTIS MING, STANDING BY TO BREAK DOWN THE LATEST NUMBERS ON WHO’S ALREADY VOTED KURTIS. YEAH, I’M HERE WITH PAUL MITCHELL WITH POLITICAL DATA, INC., AND HE IS THE GUY WHO DREW THE CONGRESSIONAL MAPS THAT WE’RE WORKING ON AND WORKING OFF OF FOR THE SPECIAL ELECTION, TRACKING BALLOT DATA. ALL THE BALLOTS THAT ARE COMING IN SO FAR. SO I WANT TO START OFF WITH THIS MAP RIGHT HERE. NOW, THESE ARE THE CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS, BUT THESE ARE PRECINCTS. AND THESE ARE THE BALLOTS THAT HAVE BEEN RETURNED SO FAR. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN? WE SEE REDS. WE SEE BLUES. WE SEE WHITES. SO OUR COMPANY POLITICAL DATA GETS THE DATA FROM THE COUNTIES. AND WE CAN ACTUALLY IDENTIFY WHAT VOTERS HAVE RETURNED THEIR BALLOTS. AND FROM THAT WE CAN LEARN OUR DEMOCRATS TURNING THEIR BALLOTS IN FASTER, OR REPUBLICANS AND THE FULL BREAKDOWN. AND THIS ACTUALLY SHOWS PRECINCT BY PRECINCT, THE PARTIZANSHIP OF THE VOTES THAT HAVE COME IN. SO, LIKE YOU WOULD EXPECT, A LOT OF THE MIDDLE OF THE STATE, MORE REPUBLICAN AND A LOT OF THE COASTAL AREAS MORE BLUE, AND THESE ARE REFLECTIVE OF WHERE PEOPLE ARE RETURNING THEIR BALLOTS. SO A LOT OF BALLOTS ARE COMING IN. AND THE BIG STORY HERE, THIS NEXT GRAPHIC WE’RE GOING TO SHOW YOU, BECAUSE IT’S THE BREAKDOWN OF THE AMOUNT OF BALLOTS RETURNED. WE WERE JUST TALKING ABOUT THIS AND YOU WERE CALLING THIS NUMBER RIGHT HERE SURPRISING. WE HAVE 3.7 MILLION BALLOTS THAT HAVE RETURNED. WE HAVE 19.2 MILLION STILL OUT THERE. SO THAT’S ABOUT 16% OF THE BALLOTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN RETURNED. WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF THAT? WELL, SO FIRST OFF WE’RE GOING TO THINK ABOUT AN ELECTION LIKE THIS. TURNOUT IS PROBABLY GOING TO BE 50%. SO WE’VE KIND OF FILLED UP MAYBE MORE THAN A THIRD OF WHAT WE EXPECT WILL BE THE THE FINAL VOTE. AND THAT NUMBER IS ACTUALLY GREATER THAN THE NUMBER OF VOTES THAT HAD COME IN AT THIS TIME IN THE 2024 GENERAL ELECTION, WHICH IS SURPRISING. I MEAN, A PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, NATIONAL ATTENTION. IT TURNS OUT THAT THIS IS A BALLOT MEASURE ON A SPECIAL ELECTION THAT IS ALSO GETTING THAT KIND OF NATIONAL ATTENTION. AND IF WE WERE TO COMPARE THIS TO THE LAST TIME WE HAD A SPECIAL ELECTION, THINGS WERE A LITTLE DIFFERENT BACK THEN. IT WAS COVID. SO WOULD WE EXPECT THE NUMBERS TO BE HIGHER OR LOWER NOW THAN WHAT IT WAS DURING THAT SPECIAL ELECTION? ALMOST NOTHING IS GOING TO BE THE SAME AS THE 2020 GENERAL AND THE 2021 SPECIAL, BOTH OF WHICH WERE HELD IN KIND OF THE HEIGHTS OF COVID WHEN WE WERE IN LOCKDOWNS AND WHEN AT THE TIME. I MEAN, THE MOST EXCITING THING I DID IN A GIVEN DAY WAS GO TO THE MAILBOX. SO, YOU KNOW, WE HAD HUGE EARLY TURNOUT OF MAIL IN BALLOTS THEN. SO WE’RE STILL MAYBE 800,000 LOWER THAN THE 2021 SPECIAL. BUT AGAIN, DIFFERENT ELECTION. WE EXPECT A LOT OF THESE VOTERS WILL SHOW UP LATE. A LOT OF YOUNGER LATINO AND ALSO A GOOD CHUNK OF THE REPUBLICAN VOTE SHOULD COME IN LATE BECAUSE THERE ARE A LOT OF REPUBLICANS WHO HAVE BEEN TOLD NOT TO TRUST VOTE BY MAIL, AND SO THEY WANT TO VOTE AT THE POLLS. THEY’LL SHOW UP AT THE POLLS. ALL RIGHT. THE NEXT GRAPHIC WE HAVE HERE IS TIED TO THE THE POLITICAL PARTIES. AND SO WHEN WE’RE LOOKING AT THIS, WHEN IT COMES TO DEMOCRATS AND REPUBLICANS, IT LIKE ABOUT 18, 19% OF DEMOCRATS AND REPUBLICANS HAVE TURNED OUT. BUT THE INDEPENDENTS ARE KIND OF SITTING OUT. ONLY 12% HAVE TURNED THEM IN. WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF THAT? SO FIRST OFF, LET’S THINK ABOUT THIS AS THE VOTES THAT HAVE COME IN. BUT IF WE HAD THE REGISTRATION, INDEPENDENTS ARE ABOUT 30% OF THE REGISTRATIONS, REPUBLICANS ABOUT A QUARTER AND ABOUT A HALF ARE DEMOCRATIC. SO DEMOCRATS AND REPUBLICANS, LET’S SAY THEY’RE HOLDING THEIR OWN WEIGHT, BUT INDEPENDENTS ARE TURNING IN THEIR BALLOTS AT A LOWER RATE. SO THAT’S REFLECTIVE OF A A VOTE THAT’S COMING IN IN AN ELECTION THAT’S BEEN VERY POLARIZED, BASED ON PARTIZANSHIP. AND I BET THERE’S A LOT OF INDEPENDENTS AT HOME THINKING THIS ELECTION JUST ISN’T FOR THEM. INTERESTING. ALL RIGHT. SO NOW THE AGE GROUPS, WE BREAK THIS DOWN. AND THE MAJORITY OF THE VOTES THAT HAVE COME IN HAVE COME FROM PEOPLE 65 AND UP. BUT YOU POINT OUT HERE, YOUNG PEOPLE, THEY’RE REALLY NOT TURNING IN THEIR BALLOTS YET. WHY IS THIS SO? THIS IS CRAZY. THERE’S JUST OVER 5 MILLION SENIORS AND JUST OVER 6 MILLION YOUNG PEOPLE IN THIS GRAPHIC. BUT WE HAVE LESS THAN HALF A MILLION YOUNG PEOPLE AND ALMOST 2 MILLION SENIORS. IT’S A HUGE DISPARITY OF OLDER VOTERS VOTING EARLIER. THESE ARE THE OLDER VOTERS LIKE MY IN-LAWS, WHEN THEY GET A PG&E OR A SMUD BILL, THEY PAY IT RIGHT AWAY WITH A CHECK AND THEY SEND IT IN. AND THOSE VOTERS HAVE KIND OF A MUSCLE MEMORY FOR RETURNING THINGS LIKE BALLOTS. SO WE SEE THIS A LOT, BUT A LOT OF TURNOUT HAS COME FROM THOSE OLDER VOTERS. SO TRADITIONALLY THE YOUNGER VOTER IS GOING TO BE A PROCRASTINATOR WHEN IT COMES TO GETTING THAT BALLOT BACK PROCRASTINATOR, JUST NOT AS USED TO LIKE RETURNING SOMETHING BY THE MAIL THAT MIGHT BE SITTING ON A COUNTER. THEY MIGHT BE THINKING THEY’RE GOING TO DROP IT OFF AT A DROP BOX, AND IN-PERSON VOTING WILL BE STARTING HERE SOON. THIS WEEKEND, YOU’LL SEE A LOT OF PEOPLE VOTING IN PERSON, SO THAT MIGHT BE WHERE WE SEE THE VOTING CENTER AT SAC STATE OPEN UP AS AN EXAMPLE. ALL RIGHT. WELL, WE APPRECIATE YOU COMING IN A LOT OF VERY INTERESTING NUMBERS. WE’RE GOING TO BREAK DOWN THESE NUMBERS AND KEEP THEM ONLINE FOR YOU. BUT PAU
Prop 50 turnout | 15% of voters have returned ballots for special California election
Updated: 6:45 PM PDT Oct 23, 2025
About 3.4 million ballots have been returned so far in California’s special election to either approve or reject Proposition 50, according to a data firm used by political campaigns. A Thursday release from data firm Political Data Inc. stated that 15% of ballots sent out to California voters have already been returned from Oct. 6 to Oct. 22. Earlier this month, the firm said the voter turnout rate at the time was “close to recall election numbers,” in a reference to the 2021 vote over whether to recall Gov. Gavin Newsom. According to the early mail-in vote, 17% of Democrats and 17% of Republicans have turned in their ballots. That equates to more than 1.7 million votes out of 10.3 million total ballots mailed for Democrats. For Republicans, that equates to more than 960,000 votes out of 5.8 million total ballots mailed.The turnout for voters classified as independent or other is 10%, equating to more than 720,000 ballots returned out of 6.8 million mailed.Political Data also reports that 49% of the votes came from people ages 65 or older. White voters also represent 69% of the vote so far. See the full breakdown of votes so far here.California voters on Nov. 4 will decide if the state should temporarily toss its current congressional district map drawn by the state’s independent commission and replace it with a new one that was quickly drawn by Democrats. It’s part of a larger national fight in which Republicans and Democrats are trying to gerrymander their congressional districts to determine which party controls the U.S. House of Representatives halfway through President Donald Trump’s term.The proposed maps target five California Republicans in an attempt to offset the five Republicans Texas is aiming to add.If approved, the maps would be in place for the 2026, 2028 and 2030 elections. State leaders have said the power to draw maps would return to the independent redistricting commission in 2031.One of the people who works at Political Data Inc., Paul Mitchell, is the owner of a consulting firm that helped to create the congressional redistricting maps for Democrats. He said he is not campaigning for the measure. According to data from the California Secretary of State’s Office, voter turnout for special elections is typically about 45%. There have been seven special elections since 1910, including the 2003 recall election that saw Gov. Gray Davis removed from office, and the 2021 failed recall election against Newsom.Both of those elections had higher turnout than the other five.The last day to register to vote was Oct. 20, though people can also vote on Nov. 3 with Conditional Voter Registration. | RELATED | Everything you need to know about California’s Proposition 50See more coverage of top California stories here | Download our app | Subscribe to our morning newsletter | Find us on YouTube here and subscribe to our channelPHNjcmlwdCB0eXBlPSJ0ZXh0L2phdmFzY3JpcHQiPiFmdW5jdGlvbigpeyJ1c2Ugc3RyaWN0Ijt3aW5kb3cuYWRkRXZlbnRMaXN0ZW5lcigibWVzc2FnZSIsKGZ1bmN0aW9uKGUpe2lmKHZvaWQgMCE9PWUuZGF0YVsiZGF0YXdyYXBwZXItaGVpZ2h0Il0pe3ZhciB0PWRvY3VtZW50LnF1ZXJ5U2VsZWN0b3JBbGwoImlmcmFtZSIpO2Zvcih2YXIgYSBpbiBlLmRhdGFbImRhdGF3cmFwcGVyLWhlaWdodCJdKWZvcih2YXIgcj0wO3I8dC5sZW5ndGg7cisrKXtpZih0W3JdLmNvbnRlbnRXaW5kb3c9PT1lLnNvdXJjZSl0W3JdLnN0eWxlLmhlaWdodD1lLmRhdGFbImRhdGF3cmFwcGVyLWhlaWdodCJdW2FdKyJweCJ9fX0pKX0oKTs8L3NjcmlwdD4=
About 3.4 million ballots have been returned so far in California’s special election to either approve or reject Proposition 50, according to a data firm used by political campaigns.
A Thursday release from data firm Political Data Inc. stated that 15% of ballots sent out to California voters have already been returned from Oct. 6 to Oct. 22.
Earlier this month, the firm said the voter turnout rate at the time was “close to recall election numbers,” in a reference to the 2021 vote over whether to recall Gov. Gavin Newsom.
According to the early mail-in vote, 17% of Democrats and 17% of Republicans have turned in their ballots. That equates to more than 1.7 million votes out of 10.3 million total ballots mailed for Democrats. For Republicans, that equates to more than 960,000 votes out of 5.8 million total ballots mailed.
The turnout for voters classified as independent or other is 10%, equating to more than 720,000 ballots returned out of 6.8 million mailed.
Political Data also reports that 49% of the votes came from people ages 65 or older. White voters also represent 69% of the vote so far.
See the full breakdown of votes so far here.
California voters on Nov. 4 will decide if the state should temporarily toss its current congressional district map drawn by the state’s independent commission and replace it with a new one that was quickly drawn by Democrats. It’s part of a larger national fight in which Republicans and Democrats are trying to gerrymander their congressional districts to determine which party controls the U.S. House of Representatives halfway through President Donald Trump’s term.
The proposed maps target five California Republicans in an attempt to offset the five Republicans Texas is aiming to add.
If approved, the maps would be in place for the 2026, 2028 and 2030 elections. State leaders have said the power to draw maps would return to the independent redistricting commission in 2031.
One of the people who works at Political Data Inc., Paul Mitchell, is the owner of a consulting firm that helped to create the congressional redistricting maps for Democrats. He said he is not campaigning for the measure.
According to data from the California Secretary of State’s Office, voter turnout for special elections is typically about 45%. There have been seven special elections since 1910, including the 2003 recall election that saw Gov. Gray Davis removed from office, and the 2021 failed recall election against Newsom.
Both of those elections had higher turnout than the other five.
The last day to register to vote was Oct. 20, though people can also vote on Nov. 3 with Conditional Voter Registration.
| RELATED | Everything you need to know about California’s Proposition 50
See more coverage of top California stories here | Download our app | Subscribe to our morning newsletter | Find us on YouTube here and subscribe to our channel