Few countries attempt to tax wealth, Noah noted, and often don’t raise much if they do. This is why many policy experts have objected to wealth tax proposals from Warren, Sanders, and others in Washington. Many politicians object, too—and not just Republicans. New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani has proposed closing the city’s budget deficit by increasing the income tax on millionaires, but can’t do so without action from the state government in Albany—and Governor Kathy Hochul opposes a hike. (State legislators are warmer to the idea. If it fails, Mamdani may end up having to raise local property taxes instead.)
Similarly, the California proposal has gained a formidable opponent in Governor Gavin Newsom. “It’s a badly drafted effort,” he said in January, arguing that it could cost the state revenue over the longer term if the wealthy flee the state over the tax. Some have threatened to do just that, including Peter Thiel, the PayPal founder and Trump supporter, and Google founder Larry Page. In the past, few of the ultra-wealthy have made good on such promises to leave when taxes are raised or politicians promise to raise them, but the threats, along with Newsom’s caution, could give Californians pause. “It’s going to be interesting to see if the moderate position from leaders by Newsom is going to maybe demotivate people,” said Carey Stapleton, a lecturer of computational political science at the University of Massachusetts. “[Voters are] getting inconsistent messages from their party leaders, the people they look up to.”
Two initiatives have launched to fight the proposal, Stop the Squeeze and Golden State Promise, with the latter reporting a $10 million contribution from a San Francisco blockchain company. And Silicon Valley billionaires, including Google’s other founder, Sergey Brin, are spending on a group called Building a Better California, which is sponsoring three other initiatives, some of which would conflict with the billionaire tax proposal by preventing retroactive taxes or prohibiting its spending provisions.