The first round of the 2026 NHL Draft is going to take some work to keep track of. Last week’s deadline saw three trades involving first-rounders in this year’s draft alone. That brings the total number of picks that have changed hands from just that round to an even dozen, potentially, although some will depend on conditions.
Of course, not all of the teams involved in those moves would make them over again. So today, let’s get you caught up on which picks have moved while also turning this into a ranking of regret. We’ll go through all 12 picks, ranked from the ones whose former teams have no regrets at all to those where a team might like a do-over.
We’ll start with the least regrettable of them all, which turns out not to be a very tough choice…
12. The Minnesota Wild’s pick
Placement-wise, this is a tricky one to project. The Wild are on pace to post one of the best records in the league, but their path to the final four is as tough as it gets. If they lose in the first two rounds, this pick probably ends up in the mid-20s.
The trade: In December, the Wild traded this pick along with Zeev Buium, Marco Rossi and prospect Liam Ohgren to Vancouver for Quinn Hughes.
The thinking at the time: Quinn Hughes is awesome, and would probably continue to be awesome in Minnesota.
The thinking right now: Quinn Hughes is awesome, and has definitely continued to be awesome in Minnesota.
Regret rating: 0/100. Only because I’ve decided that we’re not going to do negative numbers. Minnesota fans may have had some mild pangs over parting with Buium or Rossi, but a mid- to late-20s pick for arguably the best defenseman on the planet? I feel like the Wild front office can live with that just fine.
11. The Dallas Stars’ pick
There’s a twist on this one, in that it’s one of only two picks in the round that have been traded twice … kind of. We’ll get to that, but since we’re focused on regret, it’s the first trade we’re focused on.
The trade: At last year’s deadline, the Stars sent firsts in 2026 and 2028 to Carolina along with Logan Stankoven and two thirds for Mikko Rantanen.
The thinking at the time: Rantanen had gone from Colorado to Carolina earlier in the year but didn’t want to sign an extension there, so the Hurricanes flipped him to Dallas.
The thinking right now: Remember when Rantanen single-handedly beat the Avs in the 2025 playoffs? That was cool.
Regret rating: 10/100. The deal cost the Stars plenty, and we’ll see what the future first ends up looking like. But for now, no regret.
10. The Colorado Avalanche’s pick
The Nic Roy trade with the Toronto Maple Leafs raised a few eyebrows, but that’s for next year’s first. This one is likely to be very late in the round.
The trade: The Avs sent this pick and a 2028 third plus Oliver Kylington and Calum Ritchie to the New York Islanders for Brock Nelson and William Dufour. (This is the other pick that’s been traded twice; the Islanders flipped it to the St. Louis Blues for Brayden Schenn last week.)
The thinking at the time: Nelson was a big name at the 2025 deadline, and the Avs were Cup-hunting.
The thinking right now: While some of us didn’t love the move at the time, Nelson’s proven us wrong as a great fit in Colorado.
Regret rating: 15/100. Knowing that and where this pick will land, the Avs make this move again in a heartbeat.
9. The Detroit Red Wings’ pick
The Red Wings haven’t quite clinched a playoff spot yet, but they’re close. A run to the conference final isn’t out of the question in a weird Atlantic, but this pick will probably end up in the low 20s.
The trade: The Red Wings sent this pick along with Justin Holl, Dmitri Buchelnikov and a third to acquire Justin Faulk at least week’s deadline.
The thinking at the time: The Red Wings needed a top-four defenseman in a market where not many were available. In addition, patience was wearing a bit thin for Steve Yzerman’s conservative approach, especially after Dylan Larkin’s comments about last year’s (quiet) deadline.
The thinking right now: Pretty much the same, since it’s been less than a week. But Faulk has looked good in his two games so far, and the response to the trade was reasonably positive.
Regret rating: 25/100. Check back when we’ve had a chance to evaluate the deal with the benefit of at least one playoff run, but for now, Faulk still has that new-car smell.
8. The Anaheim Ducks’ pick
Hey, I remember this trade.
The trade: The Ducks sent this pick and a third to the Capitals for John Carlson in what may have been last week’s most surprising trade.
The thinking at the time: The young Ducks shocked many of us by trading a conditional first for a veteran UFA, apparently figuring that they had as good a shot as anyone at this year’s Pacific.
The thinking right now: The same, except the weather is slightly warmer.
Regret rating: 35/100. Of all the moves on our list, this one feels the most “TBD.” We haven’t seen how Carlson fits in Anaheim, we don’t know if they can (or want to) re-sign him, and most importantly, we don’t know where the pick will end up being. The Ducks have the option to keep it if they miss the playoffs, which feels unlikely. But the difference between making it and winning at least two rounds is significant, so we’ll see. For now, let’s assume they’re comfortable but maybe a little bit nervous.
7. The Vegas Golden Knights’ pick
Right now, it would be in the late teens, which is surprisingly high, although in a weak Pacific it’s not hard to imagine Vegas going to the conference final and pushing this pick to the end of the round.
The trade: This pick went to Calgary, but not for Rasmus Andersson; that’s next year’s pick. This one is from way back in 2024, when the Knights got Noah Hanifin for a first, a 2025 third and Daniil Miromanov (with the Flyers tagging in for some retention).
The thinking at the time: The Knights were the defending champs at the time, and were doing what they always do — shoving their way to the front of the line for the best player available.
The thinking right now: Hanifin’s been fine in Vegas over the years.
Regret rating: 45/100. Do the Golden Knights ever regret anything? Does anyone in Vegas?
Noah Hanifin has 10 points in 18 playoff games for the Vegas Golden Knights. (Ethan Miller / Getty Images)
6. The Florida Panthers’ pick
This projects to be easily the highest pick we’ve had yet, coming in right around the ten spot if the season ended now.
The trade: The Panthers traded this pick along with Spencer Knight to the Chicago Blackhawks for Seth Jones and a 2026 fourth at least year’s deadline. (If you’re wondering, the Brad Marchand trade also cost the Panthers a first, but it’s in 2027.)
The thinking at the time: Flags fly forever, let’s go win another Cup. Besides, there’s no way the pick will be all that high.
The thinking right now: They did indeed win that Cup, so we can’t rank this one all that high. And crucially, it’s top-10 protected, meaning there’s a good chance the Panthers come out of this with a good pick and then get right back to contending next year. But it’s also possible that they could end up sending the 11th or 12th pick to Chicago, which is a steep price for a team with no prospects.
Regret rating: 50/100. This is as high as I can go, given the Panthers won the Cup. But when you factor in the season Knight is having, you do wonder how this one looks down the line. At the very least, Hawks fans have to be thrilled with how this all worked out.
5. The Carolina Hurricanes’ pick (maybe)
This one gets a bit complicated. The Hurricanes have two firsts, their own and the Stars’ from the Rantanen deal, and the Rangers get whichever one is better. Right now, that would be the Hurricanes’ pick, but it depends on how the rest of the season and playoffs go. This could just end up being the same Stars pick we’ve already covered. For now, let’s assume it’s Carolina’s.
The trade: Last summer, Carolina traded this pick, a second and Scott Morrow to the Rangers for K’Andre Miller.
The thinking at the time: The Hurricanes apparently really like Miller, enough that they gave up a ton to get him and then signed him to a $60-million extension.
The thinking right now: Miller’s a solid player and at 26 still has room to grow, but the Hurricanes gave up plenty, both in terms of trade and contract.
Regret rating: 60/100. If you were expecting Miller to blossom into a Norris candidate in Carolina, it hasn’t happened yet. If you were willing to settle for a solid second-pair guy, you’re feeling OK.
4. The Edmonton Oilers’ pick
This pick is top-12 protected, although it would take a significant Oilers collapse for that to come into play. Like the Ducks’ and Knights’ picks, it would be in the teens today but could jump to the end of the round if the Oilers emerge from the Pacific.
The trade: The Oilers sent this pick and Carl Berglund to the Sharks for Jake Walman at last year’s deadline.
The thinking at the time: Walman’s good and not too expensive for another year, and the Oilers were very much in “win now” mode. People thought the move was OK at the time.
The thinking right now: Walman signed an extension, which helps. He hasn’t been amazing in Edmonton, but he’s been fine, at least when he’s healthy.
Regret rating: 65/100. We’re getting into dicey territory here, although not quite full “I want a do-over” status. Any regret here is less about keeping the pick and more about opportunity cost — could it have been spent more wisely, either at the time or during this year’s goalie hunt?
3. The Tampa Bay Lightning’s pick
Wait, the Lightning once owned a first-round pick?
The trade: The Lightning acquired Yanni Gourde and Oliver Bjorkstrand from the Seattle Kraken in a three-way deal involving Detroit as a cap broker. It cost them a package including this pick and next year’s first, both top-10 protected.
The thinking at the time: A classic all-in push by a Cup favorite.
The thinking right now: Last year’s Lightning only won one playoff game, in a series that Bjorkstrand missed due to injury and in which Gourde had only one point. They’re favorites again this year, but with Bjorkstrand about to hit UFA and Gourde turning 34, this feels like a big overpay for two bottom-six depth pieces.
Regret rating: 75/100. It’s not Tanner Jeannot trade bad, but it’s a lot.
2. The Toronto Maple Leafs’ pick
Did you know about this one? It doesn’t come up very often.
The trade: The Leafs sent this pick, a 2025 fourth and Fraser Minten to the Bruins for Brandon Carlo at last year’s deadline.
The thinking at the time: The price was sky-high, but the Leafs figured they were getting a long-term blue line piece, since Carlo was 28 and signed through 2027 on a deal the Bruins were eating some salary on. Besides, it will be a late first, right? Right?
The thinking right now: Uh-oh! The pick will not be a late-first, and since it’s top-five protected (instead of 10 or 12 like most other protected firsts), the Leafs will likely end up surrendering a top-10 pick to a division rival for a player who hasn’t fit well. Weird, they never do stuff like that.
Regret rating: 95/100. This won’t be the trade that gets Brad Treliving fired in a month, but it will be mentioned in the first paragraph of his Leafs obituary. In fact, you were probably assuming it would take top spot on today’s list. And it kind of does, except that …
1. The Ottawa Senators’ pick
I went back and forth on whether this one should even count. But while it’s not a trade, the Senators used to have a first-round pick and now they don’t. That means it changed hands, right?
The trade: At the 2022 deadline, the Ducks sent defenseman John Moore and the contract of Ryan Kesler to Vegas for Evgenii Dadonov and a second. No, neither of those teams is the Senators, but stay with us.
The thinking at the time: What a relatively dull trade that surely will not cost anyone their job.
The thinking a few hours after that: Wait, it turns out Dadonov has a no-trade clause that the Knights somehow didn’t know about, and the trade has to be scrapped. How does that happen?
The thinking after the league looked into it: It turns out the blame was with the Senators and then-GM Pierre Dorion, who apparently hadn’t informed the Knights about the NTC when they sent Dadonov to Vegas in 2021. (Vegas wasn’t on his list, so the clause didn’t factor into that trade.)
The league punished the Senators by stripping them of a first-round pick in either 2024, 2025 or 2026, with the team getting to decide which pick it gave up. The rebuilding Senators kept their picks in 2024 and 2025, meaning the bill comes due this year. The debacle also helped cost Dorion his job.
The thinking right now: It’s fair to say Senators fans aren’t thrilled. New owner Michael Andlauer sure wasn’t. And they have at least a bit of a case — losing a first isn’t unprecedented, but it’s harsh punishment. If the whole thing was Dorion’s fault, Sens fans would argue, then he’s already more than paid a price.
Unless the league backs down at the last minute — which would also not be unprecedented — the Senators could forfeit a pick in the mid-teens.
Regret rating: 100/100. Regret might not be the right word in Ottawa; maybe “rage” would be better. Either way, it’s a mess. At least the Leafs still have Carlo in the lineup, where he could still theoretically help them someday. The Sens are going to lose their pick for nothing at all, because of how a GM their fans didn’t like screwed up a trade his team wasn’t even involved in. If you put this one on the list, I don’t see how it goes anywhere but the top spot.