Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for tonight’s college basketball game between the Boise State Broncos and the San Jose State Spartans.

Boise State and San Jose State get to Las Vegas with very different late-season rhythms. The Broncos are the No. 6 seed at 20-11 overall and 12-8 in the Mountain West, and they closed the regular season on a five-game winning streak: 84-69 over San Jose State, 72-62 over Wyoming, 69-53 at Fresno State, 86-77 over San Diego State, and 78-67 at Colorado State. San Jose State is the No. 11 seed at 8-23 and 3-17, and the recent shape is much rougher: the Spartans have lost three straight, falling 73-85 to Colorado State, 68-82 at Fresno State, and 78-88 to Wyoming after the earlier 69-84 loss at Boise. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for tonight’s college basketball game between the Boise State Broncos and the San Jose State Spartans.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

Across that five-game winning streak, Boise scored 77.8 points per game and allowed 65.6. The last two wins are the loudest signal. Against San Diego State, Boise shot 52.0%, held the Aztecs to 15 total rebounds, and led for more than 39 minutes. Against Colorado State, Boise shot 50.0%, went 20-of-25 at the line, generated 19 second-chance points, and finished the regular season 20-1 when leading at halftime and 14-0 when holding opponents to 70 or fewer. San Jose State still has some offensive traits that can keep a game noisy—it shoots 35.8% from three, 79th nationally, and averages only 10.1 turnovers per game, 48th nationally—but the recent defensive texture has been ugly. Colorado State shot 70.0% in the second half of an 85-73 win, Fresno State put up 82 while Garland and Myers still had to carry the scoring, and Wyoming just hung 88 while shooting 57.0%, 47.0% from three, and 15-of-15 at the line.

SJSU’s Colby Garland (G) has turned into one of the league’s hottest guards at exactly the right time. Garland was named All-Mountain West Third Team after averaging 20.3 points, 4.6 assists, and 3.1 rebounds while shooting 49.7% from the field, 38.6% from three, and 84.0% from the line, and he has scored 20 or more points in 10 straight games. Adrian Myers (G/F) has become the second live wire, averaging 19.3 points and 7.4 rebounds over his last seven games after his 34-point, 8-of-9-from-three explosion at Air Force. Jermaine Washington (G) is still knocking down 2.2 threes per game, and Sadraque NgaNga (F) has averaged 10.3 points while shooting 37.8% from deep since Jan. 24. Boise’s player layer is deeper and more stable. Drew Fielder (F/C) closed with 20 against San Jose State, 33 against San Diego State, and 23 at Colorado State, and his season line sits at 14.8 points on 55.0% shooting. Dylan Andrews (G) is at 12.6 points and 100 assists on the season and just dropped 20 on Wyoming and 19 at Colorado State, while Javan Buchanan (F) followed his 11-point game against San Jose State with 17 against San Diego State and 26 at Fresno State. Andrew Meadow (F) remains a fourth scoring lane at 11.9 points on 51.0% shooting. San Jose State has the hotter primary scorer; Boise has a much sturdier scoring ladder.

Boise swept the season series by 31 and 15, and the two wins tell slightly different stories that both matter tonight. In the 89-58 game in San Jose, Garland was held to 10 points and four assists, NgaNga led the Spartans with 15, and Boise got balanced offense from Fielder, Meadow, Dylan Andrews, Bhan Buom, and Pearson Carmichael. That is the hard-clamp version. In the 84-69 rematch in Boise, San Jose State’s stars played much better—Myers scored 23, Garland 22, NgaNga 10—and the Spartans still never really threatened because the rest of the offense disappeared. SJSU went just 4-of-23 from three, finished with six assists, got zero bench points, and watched Boise shoot 54.5%, score 42 paint points, and get 19 bench points. That is the more important template for this number. The stars can have a decent night and the team total can still stay modest, because Boise’s depth and interior control keep squeezing the non-Garland/Myers possessions out of the game.

San Jose State vs. Boise State pick, best bet

San Jose State’s current version is asking for a lot of minute-heavy survival basketball. Garland is playing nearly 35 minutes per game. Melvin Bell Jr. (G/F) is the only Spartan to appear in every game and ranks second in the conference in minutes per game in Mountain West play, with five 40-minute games. Boise, meanwhile, has been able to win different recent games through different doors: Fielder’s free-throw avalanche against San Diego State, Buchanan’s 26-point shotmaking game at Fresno State, then the Fielder-Andrews pairing combining for 42 against Colorado State. Even the two Boise-SJSU meetings show the difference in roster elasticity. Boise got 41 bench points in the first one and 19 in the second; San Jose State got zero bench points in the rematch. On a neutral floor, that translates cleanly into fresher legs, more paint pressure, and less dependence on one guard hitting another 25-plus just to keep the scoreboard moving.

That is why the market decision is more interesting than the matchup itself. Boise -14.5 has obvious receipts: two wins by 31 and 15, 11 double-digit wins on the season, five straight wins entering the tournament, and a defense that has allowed 69, 62, 53, 77, and 67 in its last five. But the spread still carries some backdoor tax, because Garland has scored 20-plus in 10 straight and San Jose State shoots enough threes to keep a dead game numerically alive late. The cleaner angle is San Jose State team total under 65.5 (-105). Boise already held the Spartans to 58 once, then held them to 69 even with Garland and Myers combining for 45. The bet asks Boise to repeat the most stable part of the matchup—limit everyone around Garland and Myers—rather than asking the Broncos to nurse a full-game margin for 40 minutes. The way it loses is simple: Garland gets all the way into the high 20s again, Myers gives him another 18-20, and San Jose State finally finds a few extra threes from the role players. The stronger read is still Boise turning this into another two-man dependency test the Spartans fail.

Best bet: San Jose State team total under 65.5 (-105). Final score projection: Boise State 78, San Jose State 62.

Best bet: SJSU TT u65.5 total points (-105)

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