Bakersfield residents are rarely surprised by hot weather — not only in the summertime, but in the spring and fall, too.
But hot weather in the winter? That may be a bridge too far.
“The general sentiment is that it’s going to be hot next week,” said Stephen McCoy, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Hanford.
And winter doesn’t officially end until Friday, March 20.
“We’re looking at temperatures that are well above normal for this time of year,” he said, “and people might not be quite prepared for it.”
The southern San Joaquin Valley is a full month ahead of schedule on seeing 90-degree temperatures, McCoy said, when considering all the data and weather observations since they started being collected in Bakersfield in the 1890s.
The weekend, however, is still expected to be pretty nice. Temperatures in Bakersfield are forecast to creep into the low 80s today, but we could see a high of 86 on Sunday.
The afternoon high on Monday is forecast to reach 91, McCoy said, but expect it to keep rising — to 93 degrees on Tuesday and Wednesday and 94 on Thursday and Friday. These winter temperatures could threaten to tie or break a record or two for this time of year.
“What we have over the coming days is a high-pressure system that’s currently building over the Pacific Ocean, and it’s going to be gradually moving eastward into next week,” the meteorologist said.
“Unfortunately for us, it’s just going to be parked right over southern California, and even extending into the Central California area, and it doesn’t look like it’s going to be moving all that much over the next week.”
“That’s basically what’s driving our temperatures, each day being warmer than the last because, that air, that heat and air just can’t go anywhere.”
And that means the overnight temperatures will rise correspondingly, with the low morning temperature moving from the low-50s today and Sunday to the mid-60s by Thursday and Friday morning.
“The common phrase that I like to use to describe it is you have the Central Valley being like a container, and the high pressure is basically a lid on top of that,” McCoy said.
“And so, that air is just not going to be able to go anywhere,” he said, “due to the unique terrain of our valley.”
The highest recorded temperature in Bakersfield for March 16 — which this year is Monday — is 91 degrees, which occurred in 1972.
It exactly matches the NWS forecast. So there’s a chance the record for March 16 could be tied or broken.
But there’s no guarantee.
“For the 17th, the record high temperature was 88 degrees, set in 2004,” McCoy said, “so, just looking at the forecast of 93, we have a pretty good chance of breaking that record.”
And more single-day records could be broken through the end of next week.
In 2004, the highest temperature ever recorded in Bakersfield for the entire month of March was 94 degrees. And that record still holds, McCoy said.
That means that record could conceivably fall this month as well.
Finally, McCoy advised that high temperatures coming this early means area residents should be aware that there is a “general, minor heat risk” and they should take precautions, especially if they or their loved ones are sensitive to heat, “such as older adults, 65-plus, infants, those without effective cooling, and those with chronic conditions, such as heart disease, obesity or poor blood circulation.
“Stay hydrated,” he said, “reduce the time spent outdoors, or stay in the shade, and open windows at night to cool off.”