Southern California homebuying started 2026 in the fourth year of a deep freeze.

My trusty spreadsheet reviewed January sales stats from the real estate tracker Attom, which examines closed transactions for houses and condos, both existing homes and newly built.

These figures, dating to 2005, show that Southern California sales were running at a pace 31% below average.

Why? A typical monthly payment for a local house hunter is up 59% in four years as the six-county median sales price remains only 6% below its all-time high.

The price is wrong

House hunters clearly can’t stomach stubbornly high prices, as the pandemic-era price surge has stuck despite slumping sales, costlier mortgages and a wobbly business climate.

The $785,000 median sales price in January is down 1% year-over-year and not far from the $831,000 peak set in June 2025.

The good news is that appreciation has cooled; the median is up just 13% in the past four years. But that doesn’t negate the 42% price gain over the previous 2018-22 period.

Rates reversal

Historically low mortgage rates, spurred by deep economic uncertainty during the pandemic’s worst days, helped to distort the market.

Next, in early 2022, inflation was percolating. Mortgage rates, with a nudge from the Federal Reserve, jumped.

That translated to the 30-year mortgage rate, as measured by Freddie Mac, averaging 6.4% over the last four years. That’s a huge hike from 3.6% seen in the previous four years.

Yes, mortgage rates have cooled recently, pushing housing affordability, by one count, near a three-year high. But the damage to the homebuyer’s wallet has been done.

Ponder the cost of a theoretical deal: A January buyer paying the median price financed with a 6.2% mortgage (the three-month average through January) with a 20% down payment. Note that this calculation does not include property taxes, insurance or maintenance expenses.

By this math, the estimated $3,838 payment is down 8% from a year ago and 12% below the $4,337 peak in May 2024.

However, this burden has increased by $1,431 per month over four years – 59% higher.

Whose paycheck is up that much since 2022? One federal wage yardstick shows local pay up 21% in four years.

And don’t forget the $157,000 down payment required to make this deal work.

The sales crash

Combine slim affordability with huge economic uncertainty, and the bottom line is that stunningly few house hunters are buying.

Southern California sales have tumbled to a pace that’s uglier than the Great Recession’s crash.

January’s 10,584 sales were the second-lowest count to start a year since 2005. Only January 2023 was slower. So, fewer Southern Californians are buying homes than when the last bubble burst.

January 2026 sales were also off 5% year-over-year and 31% below average.

This slump is nothing new: Over the last four years, 709,865 Southern California homes have been bought, 26% fewer than during the cheap-mortgage days of the previous four years.

And if 2019 was the last “normal” year for local homebuying, that year started with 12,684 sales – or 20% more than January 2026.

No local quirk

House payment pain is a widespread problem.

California’s estimated mortgage payment is up 55% to $3,409 a month over four years, as sales run 31% below average. January’s $710,000 median is just 7% below the record high.

And nationally, this burden has juimped 66% to $1,736 in four years as sales run 18% below average. January’s $345,000 U.S. median is just 4% below the record high.

Counting the counties

Ranking the jumps in the monthly payment burden across Southern California’s six counties over the past four years.

–– Orange: Payment up 78% to $5,745 in four years as sales run 27% below average. January’s $1,156,500 median is just 3% below the record high.

–– San Diego: Payment up 63% to $4,327 in four years as sales run 32% below average. January’s $869,500 median is just 3% below the record high.

–– San Bernardino: Payment up 56% to $2,520 in four years as sales run 37% below average. January’s $537,000 median is just 6% below the record high.

–– Los Angeles: Payment up 54% to $4,265 in four years as sales run 29% below average. January’s $875,000 median is just 5% below the record high.

–– Ventura: Payment up 54% to $4,156 in four years as sales run 26% below average. January’s $835,000 median is just 4% below the record high.

–– Riverside: Payment up 48% to $2,811 in four years as sales run 32% below average. January’s $600,000 median is just 6% below the record high.

Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com