California’s jungle primary system has created a path for Republicans to flip the state in a nightmare scenario for Democrats, according to new polling that shows the Democratic field splintering while GOP candidates consolidate.

The Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll, conducted March 9-15, has Republican commentator Steve Hilton at 17 percent and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco at 16 percent, while the leading Democratic candidates are scattered below them. Representative Eric Swalwell and former Representative Katie Porter each sit at 13 percent, businessman Tom Steyer at 10 percent, and former HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra at 5 percent.

Why It Matters

California’s gubernatorial race opened when term limits prevented Governor Gavin Newsom from running again. The vacancy attracted at least 10 candidates, with Democrats fragmenting across multiple candidates and Republicans seeing an opportunity to compete in a state where they have struggled to win statewide office for years.

What To Know

The poll reveals a striking difference in how Republicans and Democrats are approaching California’s open gubernatorial race. Republican voters have coalesced around a single dominant priority: cutting waste, fraud and political corruption, cited by 48 percent. Democratic voters, by contrast, are scattered across a fragmented landscape of concerns with no clear frontrunner issue.

Democratic voters cite housing (18 percent), immigrant protections (17 percent), homelessness (16 percent), the environment (16 percent), and schools (16 percent) as top priorities. No single issue breaks 18 percent.

Republican voters, meanwhile, have organized themselves around shared governance concerns—waste and corruption top the list, followed by crime and public safety (22 percent), cutting taxes (21 percent), and lowering gasoline prices (19 percent).

“The wide range of concerns cited as being important to the state’s Democrats reflects, in part, their broad and fractured field of candidates, as none as yet has won over a large segment of Democratic voters with a clear message about what they want this election to be about,” Berkeley IGS co-director Eric Schickler said.

In California’s nonpartisan primary, the top two vote-getters advance to the general election regardless of party affiliation. If the Democratic vote continues to split, two Republicans could face off in the general.

The Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll surveyed 5,019 registered voters online from March 9-15, of whom 3,889 were considered likely to vote in the June primary. The poll has a sampling error of approximately 2.5 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level.

Previous polls have shown volatility in the race. An Emerson College survey from October showed Hilton at 16 percent, Porter at 15 percent, and Bianco at 11 percent. A University of California, Berkeley poll conducted around the same time showed Bianco leading with 13 percent, Porter at 11 percent, and both Becerra and Hilton at 8 percent.

What People Are Saying

Corrin Rankin, chairwoman of the California Republican Party, told Newsweek: “Poll after poll shows Californians are tired of the decades of failure and corruption by Democrats, and they are turning to Republicans for real solutions and leadership on issues like affordability, public safety, and homelessness.”

Bianco campaign spokesman Rick Gorka told Newsweek: “Sheriff Chad Bianco has all the momentum behind his campaign for Governor and the last three public polls prove this point. Californians are eager for a new way forward and only a Sheriff can clean up the mess left behind by Newsom and his cronies.”

Porter campaign spokesperson Peter Opitz said in a statement to Newsweek last month: “Katie is the experienced, battle-tested fighter that Californians want as their next Governor. Poll after poll shows Katie leading her Democratic opponents by double digits, driven by grassroots supporters who know that she will stand up to Donald Trump’s attacks on California and bring down costs across the state. Katie remains focused on sharing her message with voters in every part and pocket of California.”

What Happens Next

Democrats typically consolidate around a candidate as the primary progresses, with weaker candidates dropping out, making such a scenario unlikely. The primary is set to be held in June. Sabato’s Crystal Ball classifies the race as Safe Democratic.

In a polarized era, the center is dismissed as bland. At Newsweek, ours is different: The Courageous Center—it’s not “both sides,” it’s sharp, challenging and alive with ideas. We follow facts, not factions. If that sounds like the kind of journalism you want to see thrive, we need you.

When you become a Newsweek Member, you support a mission to keep the center strong and vibrant. Members enjoy: Ad-free browsing, exclusive content and editor conversations. Help keep the center courageous. Join today.