Looking at the Padres’ starting pitching, baseball analysts have doubts.

Joe Musgrove, they see, hasn’t pitched in an official game since his elbow gave out in October 2024. He’ll open the season on the injured list.

Michael King missed most of last year due to shoulder and knee ailments. The Padres’ 2024 ace wasn’t a hot ticket in free agency that he would’ve been if not for last year’s physical setbacks.

Nick Pivetta?

His ERA will rise a full run from last year’s career-low, FanGraphs.com analytics’ numerous projection systems tell us.

Little wonder, then, that the 2026 Padres are viewed as a sea-level performer, bobbing in San Diego Bay.

FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus, a pair of analytics sites that all 30 MLB front offices peruse, project 80 wins, while oddsmakers have them at 83.5 to 85.5 wins.

I’m a little more optimistic because of the people in charge’s track record of solving problems, especially within a rotation.

The worst ERA ranking from Padres starting pitchers in the five years since the pandemic?

Eighteenth in 2021.

That rotation was allowed to wear down that summer, apparently because A.J. Preller didn’t like what the trade market and his farm system allowed him.

Preller then made a franchise-changing move by persuading pitching coach Ruben Niebla to leave pitching-savvy Cleveland.

“Home run hire,” declared a veteran scout, in this space, at the time.

In fewest runs per allowed game, here’s where the Padres have landed under Calexico’s Niebla:

Tenth, second, 10th and second out of the 30 teams.

And here’s how Niebla’s starters have fared in ERA:

Thirteenth, first, 13th and 16th.

So, I’m going with the trend here. The Padres’ starting pitching won’t be terrible.

If it’s league-average, the Padres can bag the 87-some wins needed to get the third wild card playoff berth in most years.

Preller has brought in several veteran candidates to fill out the rotation behind Pivetta, King and Randy Vásquez, last year’s No. 5 starter. They included right-hander Walker Buehler, German Marquez and Griffin Canning, and Padres holdovers Matt Waldron and Kyle Hart, a lefty, among others.

While Niebla and the new guys collaborate, Preller and staff will continue to brainstorm and evaluate.

Count on Preller adding more starting pitching between now and the Aug. 3 trade deadline.

Mugrove didn’t pitch last year, yet the Padres still allowed fewer runs than any team other than the Rangers.

Offsetting injuries for several weeks, Stephen Kolek and Ryan Bergert provided much-needed competence before Preller dealt them both for catcher Freddy Fermin at the deadline.

Whatever the Padres are doing to identify and develop relievers, it’s working.

The bullpen’s MLB-best 34-game start to last season blew away franchise records for dominance, while reprising a Padres formula that led to other successful seasons.

The ’25 Padres went 23-11 to begin the season, in large part because of the bullpen.

From there, mere .528 baseball took them to 90 wins.

This year’s bullpen appears similarly capable — and might be better.

Closer Mason Miller is riding an all-time hot streak of strikeout dominance.

Blending triple-digit fastballs with sharp sliders and an improved 95 mph changeup, the right-hander left his opponents in the recent World Baseball Classic grateful to hit even a foul ball off him.

Lefty Adrián Morejón stands as a top-10 reliever going into this season, and several other relievers should do their part.

A few other things about this year’s Padres:

A year after they got 12 home runs from their first basemen, they’re giving Gavin Sheets and righty Nick Castellanos a fair chance to double that total.

Jackson Merrill isn’t likely to go on the injured list three times, as he did last year.

Among the nine National League teams FanGraphs projects to win more games than the Padres (80) are the Giants (82), Diamondbacks (82) and Pirates (83). None of those three impresses me as more capable than the Padres.

This isn’t a great team, for sure.

But three wild cards are available.

As a result, the inevitable downturns in a season become less distressing. Because the enlarged safety net encourages teams to make upgrades during the season, dealmakers like Preller become more valuable. In each of the past two summer trade markets, Preller improved the roster at multiple spots.

Above Preller, a new ownership group is expected to be installed soon.

If the billionaire who becomes the Padres’ control person reads the room correctly, he or she will be agreeable to increasing the player payroll during this season.

So how will the Padres fare? I’ll go with 86 wins, and strong contention for the club’s fourth full-season wild card in five years.