A worker refuels an AeroMexico plane at San Francisco International Airport in 2022. With prices for jet fuel rising amid the war with Iran, experts say travelers should consider booking summer airfares now.
Justin Sullivan/Getty Images
The escalating war with Iran launched three weeks ago by President Donald Trump has sent oil prices sharply higher. Drivers have already seen a spike in costs at the pump — and people planning air travel to get to their summer vacation destinations may also be in for sticker shock.
Jet fuel prices rose by 68% in the last month, according to trade association Airlines for America. Deutsche Bank’s airfare price tracker found the average published fares for a transcontinental domestic flight booked three weeks in advance on three major American airlines rose in the past month from $167 to $414. One flight from Washington, D.C., to San Francisco went from $149 to $502 in that timeframe.
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Those types of price spikes can be particularly challenging to absorb for people in places like the Bay Area with a high cost of living, said Henry Harteveldt, an airline industry analyst for market research firm Atmosphere Research Group.
“Here in San Francisco and the broader Bay Area, our gasoline and diesel prices are more expensive on average than in other cities, so we’re already paying more,” he said. “Except for the extremely affluent, we have finite amounts of disposable income.”
• READ: Gas prices are rising fast in California. These small changes can help drivers save
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It’s unclear what will happen next with the Iran war, but even if it concluded tomorrow, airfare prices wouldn’t come down immediately, Harteveldt said.
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“Airlines want to be sure that the downward trajectory is going to be real,” he said.
But those rising costs don’t necessarily mean people will forgo any vacations. People who are planning to travel this summer will likely still take a trip, said Brett Snyder, the president of airline news site The Cranky Flier.
“They’re not going to sacrifice their vacations,” he said. It just might be a slightly different trip: “They may go somewhere closer to home, they may drive instead of fly.”
Experts say if you’re planning a summer trip, consider booking as soon as possible and focusing on flexibility. Here are some tips to make sure your vacation plans stay on track — and on budget.
With the Iran war and rising gas prices, should hopeful summer travelers be locking in flight prices, hotel rooms and attraction tickets now? Or does it make more sense to hold off and see what happens with the Iran war?
Jessica Roy
Book now to lock in your price — but focus on refundable options
Experts say if you’re planning a trip this summer, even a domestic one, it’s a good idea to book airfare now if you can find a price that fits your budget. You want to look for refundable fares and hotels so that you have the flexibility to cancel and rebook at a lower price if you can find one in the future — or cancel your trip entirely if your needs change.
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Basic economy is the fare to avoid right now. Those tickets tend to have less flexible refund and change policies.
“Lock in that travel now, keep an eye on your itineraries, and if you see a price drop, rebook it at that point,” said Eric Rosen, the director of travel content for credit card rewards website The Points Guy. “You can pocket the difference as a fare credit for a future flight.”
Look at alternate airlines and airports
You might be accustomed to booking your regular airline from your regular airport. But you may find more competitive prices if you look at other airlines and departure points, Harteveldt said — so if you normally fly United out of SFO, consider other carriers from Oakland International, Mineta San Jose International or Schulz Sonoma County airport, or even other points of departure along the West Coast for long-haul international flights. Sites like Google Flights, Skyscanner and Hopper are all good ways to compare prices.
Use your loyalty points
On the other hand, if you’ve stayed loyal to the same airline for a long time, you may have racked up enough miles or rewards to book your flight that way. Besides, credit card rewards experts say it’s better to spend your points on an upcoming trip than to save them indefinitely and risk them getting devalued or wiped out altogether.
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• READ: The No. 1 rule of credit card rewards — and biggest mistakes to avoid with your points
Check routes for international travel
The U.S. has issued Level 4 “do not travel” advisories — its highest level — for Iran and adjacent countries including Iraq and Afghanistan. Level 3 “reconsider travel” and Level 2 “exercise increased caution” advisories are in place for many countries in the region including Turkey, Cyprus, Egypt and Israel. (Visit the U.S. State Department travel advisories map for more information.)
Even if your destination is thousands of miles from the Middle East, your international flight might be routed through a major hub like Doha, Abu Dhabi, or Dubai, Harteveldt said. Opt for flights that don’t make connections or layovers there to decrease the chances of a disruption.
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Get travel insurance
Normally, travel insurance might seem unnecessary, especially if your bookings are refundable. But amid this level of uncertainty, spending a few more dollars to protect your trip might add an extra level of peace of mind.