The San Diego State Aztecs (5-1, 2-0 Mountain West) and Fresno State Bulldogs (5-2, 2-1) meet Saturday at Valley Children’s Stadium in Fresno, California. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET (FS1). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NCAA football odds around the San Diego State vs. Fresno State odds and make our expert college football picks and predictions for the best bets.
San Diego State leads the all-time series 31-27-4. That includes a victory in the most recent meeting, a 33-18 win at Snapdragon Stadium Nov. 25, 2023, cashing as a 4-point underdog with the Over (47) hitting. San Diego State is 4-1 against the spread (ATS) in the past 5 meetings, and the Over has cashed in each of the past 3 in the series.
The Aztecs punished Nevada 44-10 in Reno in the most recent game 2 weeks ago, covering as 6.5-point favorite as the Over (42.5) cashed. QB Jayden Denegal passed for 205 yards and 2 TDs, while RB Lucky Sutton ran for 81 yards and a score. WR Jordan Napier led the way with 110 yards on 5 receptions.
Since a 36-13 loss at Washington State on Sept. 6, San Diego State has rattled off 4 consecutive victories and covers. The Over has hit in the past 2 games, as the San Diego State offense has averaged 44.5 points per game (PPG), while allowing 17.0 PPG. The defense has allowed just 11.8 PPG in the past 4 outings.
The Bulldogs were on the short end of a 49-21 loss at Colorado State in the most recent game Oct. 10 despite being a 5.5-point favorite as the Over (48) cashed. Fresno State was minus-4 in turnover ratio, as QB E.J. Warner had 3 INTs, although he did have 350 passing yards and 3 TDs, too.
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Watch NCAA football on Fubo!San Diego State at Fresno State odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:07 a.m. ET.
Moneyline (ML): San Diego State -160 (bet $160 to win $100) | Fresno State +135 (bet $100 to win $135)Against the spread: San Diego State -3 (-115) | Fresno State +3 (-105)Over/Under (O/U): 46.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)San Diego State at Fresno State picks and predictionsPrediction
San Diego State 27, Fresno State 20
SAN DIEGO STATE (-160) is worth playing as a moderate favorite on the moneyline if you’re a bit on the conservative side, and you’d prefer not to mess around laying the points in a potentially close conference game.
SAN DIEGO STATE -3 (-115) is worth a look in this road game inside the Mountain West Conference.
The Aztecs are brimming with confidence, scoring at least 44 points in each of the past 2 outings, which is a bit surprising since they also won a 6-3 game at Northern Illinois on Sept. 27. San Diego State showed it can win with defense, or with plenty of offense. It has cashed 4 in a row, and it has covered 3 straight in this series, too.
Fresno State had been humming along with 5 straight victories from Aug. 30-Oct. 4, but it was humbled 49-21 at Colorado State, and the Bulldogs were extremely sloppy. If it commits miscues like it did in Fort Collins, Fresno State will get boat-raced again.
UNDER 46.5 (-105) is the lean, but go with a half-unit at most.
While San Diego State’s offense has been popping in the past 2 games, the Over-Under is still 3-3 this season, with the Aztecs scoring 13 or fewer points in 2 of 3 road games.
Fresno State has cashed low in 2 of the past 3 outings, too, and the defense had allowed 21 or fewer points in 4 of the previous 5 games before getting pounded at Colorado State last time out on Oct. 10.
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