From left, Xavier Becerra, Steve Hilton, Matt Mahan, Tom Steyer, Tony Thurmond, Antonio Villaraigosa and Betty Yee take part in a gubernatorial candidate debate on Feb. 3, 2026, in San Francisco.
Laure Andrillon/Associated Press
Rusty Hicks, chair of the California Democratic Party, declined to say Tuesday whether he has directly asked candidates to bow out.
Jeff Chiu/Associated Press
California’s Democratic Party appears to be stuck in neutral: The party’s leaders are still unwilling to take decisive steps to push low-polling candidates out of the governor’s race, even as the prospect of the deep-blue state electing a Republican leader looms.
Tuesday marked two developments that underscored the party’s dilemma. First, USC canceled a high-profile debate after days of controversy over four lower-polling candidates being excluded under the organizers’ criteria. The party also released a new poll intended to pressure low-performing candidates to drop out. But even those at the bottom immediately signaled their intention to stay in the race.
State Democratic Party leaders, including Gov. Gavin Newsom, appear unwilling to force lower-polling Democrats out of the race, which could help consolidate support behind a Democratic candidate and virtually eliminate the chance of a Republican becoming governor in a state where Democrats have nearly twice as many registered voters. The top two finishers in the June 2 primary, regardless of party affiliation, advance to the general election in November. California has not elected a Republican since 2006. And that person was a global superstar with near universal name recognition: Arnold Schwarzenegger.
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The chance of two Republicans facing off in the general election was 22% on Tuesday. according to an online tool developed by political data expert Paul Mitchell that runs thousands of simulations of the race. MItchell advised Democrats Tuesday to unite behind a candidate.
“Dems should consolidate, but there is a chance they won’t,” Mitchell said.”(Republicans) should consolidate, but there is a chance they won’t. In the overlap where the two parties don’t consolidate, Democrats get boxed out of the General Election.”
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The survey showed two Republicans — former Fox News commentator Steve Hilton (16%) and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco (14%) — are poised to advance to the general election. They are followed by a tie for third place between Rep. Eric Swalwell, former Rep. Katie Porter and billionaire climate activist Tom Steyer with 10% each.
They were followed by former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (4%), former Secretary of Health and Human Services Xavier Becerra and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan each tied with 3% support. Former state Controller Betty Yee had 2% and state Superintendent Tony Thurmond had 1%. The survey found that 24% of voters were undecided.
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State Party Chair Rusty Hicks said the polling was conducted by California’s largest Black- and Latina-led polling firm and over-sampled Black, Latino and AAPI voters to ensure their voices are heard.
Equally forboding for Democrats was a Berkeley IGS Poll released last week that showed a “historically high” level of unawareness of the election. Democrats have long relied on their advantage in voter registration to overwhelm Republicans in California.
Yet Hicks, the leader of the party and the person responsible for its success, declined to say whether he has directly asked candidates to bow out.
“I’m not going to disclose any private conversations that have been had or will have, or any future tactics between now and election day,” Hicks said Tuesday. “I have deep respect for all of the candidates that have taken the courageous step to put their name forward. They believe that they have a viable path to win.”
Later, when pressed about what constituted a “viable” candidate, Hicks said, “If you’re polling at 1 to 2%, do you have a path to get to 20(%)? That’s the question. Do you have a path to put you in a position to win the primary election that puts you into the general election?”
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Yet for now, Hicks is unwilling to do anything — including ask Newsom, the most popular Democrat in the state and likely a future presidential candidate — to ask the unviable candidates to leave. Hicks insists there is a lot of time left (about 40 days) between now and when ballots arrive in the mail to voters. But Hicks already missed his window, as all of the above candidates will appear on ballots.
“I have long said that we are prepared to do what is required to ensure that we elect a governor in November of 2026. I want to ensure that everybody has the opportunity to make their voices heard in this campaign, and there’s a lot of road between here and there.”
Earlier this month, Newsom acknowledged that with so many Democrats running and a public largely disengaged from the race — he may be forced to endorse a candidate.
“When I’m out in the community, people aren’t talking to me about it, which is interesting this late, just weeks before early voting,” Newsom told reporters. “As a consequence, I’m not directly as engaged as perhaps I might need to be.
Asking candidates to suspend their campaigns has become a very sensitive issue because many of the lowest-performing hopefuls are candidates of color.
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Four of the lower-polling candidates complained last week in a joint press conference about being excluded from a televised debate that was scheduled to be held Tuesday at USC, noting that the only four candidates of color in the race were not invited. Leaders of the Legislature wrote to USC Monday, asking the university to include the four candidates, saying if USC doesn’t “do the right thing,” voters should “boycott.”
And now, Democrats are in a deeper hole.
There’s one fewer statewide televised debate that could have helped voters consolidate behind a single candidate. And the lower-polling candidates are digging in, refusing to leave.
“Instead of wasting hundreds of thousands of dollars on polling, the [California Democratic Party] should be focused on stopping Donald Trump by winning back the House after we passed Prop 50,” said Ajay Mohan, Villaraigosa’s campaign manager.
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Yee, polling at 2%, appeared to be oblivious to the latest polling/ “The poll confirms what we’ve been saying all along: The race is wide open,” she said in a statement. “We’ve never been more confident that when voters begin to focus on the election and see our new ad campaign, we will rise above the field of billionaire-backed candidates and build a grassroots victory for working people across the state.
Becerra, Mahan and Thurmond, the other low single-digit polling candidates, did not respond to requests for comment.
Swalwell’s campaign said the new poll drove home that he is the candidate Democrats should rally behind.
“It’s time for leaders to come together to coalesce around the candidate who has consistently led in support, public polls and primary donations since entering this race,” said Micah Beasley, a campaign spokesperson.
Steyer was trying to organize an alternative forum to be held Tuesday night in Los Angeles for all of the candidates, but details on the event haven’t been finalized. Thurmond said he would instead appear on social media platforms with a former public school teacher to talk about his platform.
Meanwhile, Republicans are gloating.
“What a total joke California Democrats have become,” Hilton said. “Hours before a debate, they kill it after their LPDs (Low Polling Democrats) whined about being excluded. These people can’t organize anything.”