(Credit: NHL.com)
On Sunday, Vegas defeated a heavyweight in Dallas, only to stumble two nights later in Winnipeg. To make it even worse, both Anaheim and Edmonton took care of their own business on the same night. After last night’s loss in Winnipeg, the Golden Knights are now on pace for a dozen fewer points than their franchise average of 102.4 in an 82-game season. Adding insult to injury, Vegas’ three-goal defeat dropped them into third in a tight Pacific Division.
While it’s mathematically still possible, it’s become highly unlikely the Golden Knights will overtake the Anaheim Ducks for the Pacific Division crown. With 10 games left, the Pacific Division is slipping away for Vegas. Most projection models have Anaheim as an 82% favorite to win the Pacific. The same models give Vegas only an 8% chance. Closing in on a six-point differential is an uphill climb, especially without games against the team they are chasing.
Pacific Division Winners Since COVID
2021-22: CGY 111 (By 7 Points)
2022-23: VGK 111 (By 2 Points)
2023-24: VAN 109 (By 5 Points)
2024-25: VGK 110 (By 5 Points)
In the NHL’s first 82-game season since the pandemic, the Calgary Flames won the Pacific Division by seven standings points in 2021-22. With 10 games left, Calgary held a nine-point advantage over Edmonton. The Oilers made a run but ultimately gained only two points on the Flames. The two teams didn’t face each other in the final 10 games which could’ve benefited the chasing Oilers. That same situation will play out for Vegas and Anaheim.
On their run to their Stanley Cup championship, the Golden Knights finished off the 2022-23 regular season on fire. Vegas won six games and picked up a point in nine out of the final 10. However, they ended just two points ahead of Edmonton for first place in the Pacific Division.
The singular reason for such a tight finish was that the Oilers were even hotter than the Golden Knights. Edmonton won 14 of their final 15 games. The Golden Knights held a four point edge for much of the final month, and the Oilers cut it in half. Nevertheless, Edmonton ran out of time, and the Golden Knights clinched the division. Had the Oilers played any less than .900, Vegas would have felt minimal pressure.
(Credit: NHL.com)
In 2023-24, the Vancouver Canucks shocked the West by clinching the Pacific Division by five points. Vegas owned the division for the first three months of the season, but Vancouver separated themselves in mid-January. With 10 regular season games left to play, the Canucks held a five-point edge. Their advantage held up and earned them the Pacific Division crown.
Lastly, one year ago the Golden Knights were protecting their five-point lead in the Pacific with 10 games to go. Los Angeles got within one point, but Vegas won five of the last seven and finished the season on a seven-game point streak.
In total, three of the last four Pacific Division champions had a smaller advantage in the final ten games than the Ducks do now. None of the three surrendered their lead for even a day. Vegas might get closer with some success this week at home. However, recent history points to the Golden Knights facing Connor McDavid and the Oilers in the opening round of the playoffs. At this stage, more a fight for who hosts Game 1, as long as they both stave off the Kings and Kraken toiling behind them.
