Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 8’s game between the Houston Texans and the San Francisco 49ers.

NRG Stadium will crackle on first contact as Kyle Shanahan confronts his former lieutenant DeMeco Ryans in a true chess match. San Francisco arrives battered—Brock Purdy out, Mac Jones in, Ricky Pearsall and Jake Brendel sidelined—while Houston sweats Nico Collins’ concussion status and leans on a defense allowing points on 22.4% of drives and just 14.7 per game. The week’s talk centers on strength versus strength, with the 49ers’ 47.5% third-down offense colliding with a Texans unit that chops conversions to 32% and funnels the game into a compressed, Christian McCaffrey-driven script. Ryans’ zone-heavy structure and edge heat from Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter meet a quick-game plan built to harvest YAC and survive the rush, turning field position into currency inside the dome. The Texans chase a home recalibration on a short week, and the 49ers fight to keep their NFC West posture intact. Below is my prediction for NFL Week 8’s game between the Houston Texans and the San Francisco 49ers.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

The pivot point sits where Houston’s structure suffocates explosives and squeezes windows. Houston plays zone on 74.3% of snaps and leads the league at 6.3 yards allowed per coverage target against zone. That shape faces a San Francisco pass game built to skim and run, not to hang and heave. San Francisco ranks fifth in quick-pass rate and has generated 939 yards after the catch, most in the league. That marriage invites short timing throws, motion, and in-breaking rhythm, then asks receivers to carve after contact. The catch is Houston’s edges and tips. Will Anderson Jr. owns a 91.5 pass-rush grade with a 30.3% win rate, and Danielle Hunter sits at 90.3, which tests the 49ers’ tackles every down.

San Francisco’s counters are real and tested. Trent Williams carries an 81.3 pass-blocking grade and has allowed only 2 sacks on 288 pass-blocking snaps. Colton McKivitz owns a 97.6 pass-blocking efficiency, giving Jones trustworthy bookends even as the interior reshuffles without Brendel. Kyle Shanahan will compress the menu. Christian McCaffrey, running back, becomes the metronome again after 201 scrimmage yards last week. The 49ers’ best path uses 1st-read throws, angle screens, and play-action to stay ahead of sticks against that 32% third-down defense. The plan must remain clean because Houston has produced 7 interceptions and treats third down like a vise.

Houston’s offense brings a steadier heart rate than the scoreboard suggests. C.J. Stroud, quarterback, sits at 1,305 yards with 9 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, but his offense converts only 31.6% on third down. The unit averages 198.2 passing yards and 106.2 rushing yards per game, a modest blend that trusts the defense. When Collins is right, he leads with 339 yards and 3 scores, plus zone-split juice at 20 receptions for 277 yards against zone with a 25.6% target rate. Dalton Schultz, tight end, just posted 9 for 98, a signal of consolidation when receivers are dinged. The scoreboard math stays constrained by design, then depends on field position and red-zone clarity.

Defense sets Houston’s platform and tone. The Texans allow 274.2 yards per game and only 179.0 passing yards, which travel at home and on the road. They choke explosives in zone and rally to tackle, letting the edges speed the clock on quarterbacks. This meets a 49ers offense that produced a season-high 174 rushing yards last week but still sits at 95.3 rushing yards per game. San Francisco’s margin narrows if early downs bog. Houston’s discipline shows up again in drive scoring rate at 22.4% and points allowed at 14.7 per game, the skeleton key numbers for this matchup.

49ers vs. Texans pick, best bet

The Niners have teeth. San Francisco still leads the league at 271.3 passing yards per game and hits 47.5% on third down. Williams can stalemate Anderson, and a quick-game avalanche can mute Hunter’s bend. McCaffrey opens every door with 465 rushing yards and 516 receiving yards, plus 6 total touchdowns. George Kittle returns as a seam counter, especially if Houston “doesn’t like tight ends in the slot,” as a scout note flagged. One explosive screen can flip a quarter and tilt a modest total.

The refutation lives in availability and geometry. Purdy remains out, and Jones has thrown 3 interceptions with 0 touchdowns across his last 2 games. Houston ranks first in yards per target allowed versus zone at 6.3, a direct rebuttal to San Francisco’s zone-sensitive wideouts. The Texans’ third-down defense at 32% meets that 47.5% 49ers mark and drags it toward neutrality inside a dome where crowd noise climbs. Houston’s pass rush pairs with depth coverage to shrink second reads, which matters when the 49ers want first-read rhythm. San Francisco has also gone 14 straight games without an interception, covering 442 attempts, which removes a cheap out from the Texans’ script.

Houston’s games have stayed under in 4 of 6, and San Francisco allows only 19.7 points per game. The combined scoring averages rest at 41.9, which whispers under rather than over. The sharper edge sits on the total, not the side, because Houston’s defense defines tempo while both offenses cycle through injuries.

This game should breathe like a two-hour arm wrestle. Shanahan will dial quick motions, stack releases, and option routes to feed on Houston’s soft spots, then ask McCaffrey to move the chains. Jones will throw on schedule, piloting play-action and swing screens to keep third downs manageable. Stroud will counter with precision to Schultz and perimeter isolation for Xavier Hutchinson and Jayden Higgins if Collins is limited. Houston will hold the clock on defense, string stops to the 32% conversion rate, and squeeze San Francisco into field goals. One short field becomes a hinge.

Lay the points with Houston -2.5. The Texans’ defense squeezes games. They allow points on 22.4% of opponent drives and 14.7 points per game. They wall off third downs at 32%. Mac Jones inherits a compressed plan behind a thin line without Jake Brendel. Houston’s zone, first in yards per target allowed at 6.3, drains San Francisco’s perimeter efficiency. Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter tilt protection, while C.J. Stroud only needs a clean, turnover-light script to cash. Houston stacks field-position edges and leans on red-zone restraint.

Final score: Texans 20, 49ers 17. I believe in this team.

Best bet: Texans -2.5 (-105) vs. 49ers

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For a prop lean, I favor Jayden Higgins’ longest reception over 16.5 yards. San Francisco owns a third-percentile pressure-to-sack conversion at 2.5%, which gifts Stroud clean-pocket time. Higgins steps into outside volume when Collins’ status tightens the hierarchy, and his routes tend to exit deeper. One layered boot or dagger should crest past 20. To wit, also like modest escalators to 20+ as a sprinkle if you want juice.

Best prop lean: Jayden Higgins longest reception o16.5 yards (-115)

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