Mortgage rates hit a six-month high as the war in Iran boosted oil prices and rekindled inflation fears.

Freddie Mac reported on Thursday, March 26, that its weekly average for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage was 6.38%, the highest since Sept. 4, when it was 6.5%. This benchmark rate had dipped to 5.98% at the end of February, just before the war started, the lowest rate since September 2022.

My trusty spreadsheet looked at what the recent rate climb would mean for housing payments for a typical Southern California homebuyer. An estimated monthly cost was calculated based on the 6.38% loan rate and a buyer paying the six-county region’s January median selling price of $785,000, according to Attom. This math also assumes a 20% down payment.

The $3,928 monthly payment using the new rate is now $90 higher than recent lows. So, the conflict’s initial hit to house hunters’ budgets is only a 2% increase. Note that this payment estimate is also $409, or 9%, below the May 2024 peak.

And a $157,000 down payment is needed, too.

Those are key reasons why it’s so tough to afford a home in the area.

Remember, this is an overpriced housing market that needs some discounting. The prewar decline in mortgage rates stirred hopes of a robust spring selling season.

The year started, however, with the second-slowest sales pace for a January in Attom records dating to 2005. Let’s not forget that this financial burden has increased by 90% in six years.

Plus, these mortgage payment estimates don’t include property taxes, insurance, association fees or maintenance costs that owners incur.

Counting counties

Look at mortgage payment swings across the six counties, ranked by payment size …

• Orange: $5,880 monthly for January’s $1,175,000 median. That’s up $227 a month, or 4%, versus recent lows, but $501 below, or 8%, the June 2024 high. The burden’s up 109% in six years. Down payment? $235,000.

• San Diego: $4,429 monthly for January’s $885,000 median. That’s up $172 a month, or 4%, versus recent lows, but $431 below, or 9%, the June 2024 high. The burden’s up 98% in six years. Down payment? $177,000.

• Los Angeles: $4,365 monthly for January’s $872,250 median. That’s up $100 a month, or 2% versus recent lows, but $418 below the June 2025 high, or 9%. The burden’s up 82% in six years. Down payment? $174,500

• Ventura: $4,253 monthly for January’s $850,000 median. That’s up $133 a month, or 3%, versus recent lows, but $426 below, or 9%, the June 2024 high. The burden’s up 80% in six years. Down payment? $170,000.

• Riverside: $2,877 monthly for January’s $575,000 median. That’s up $66 a month, or 2%, versus recent lows, but $356 below, or 11%, the May 2024 high. The burden’s up 92% in six years. Down payment? $115,000.

• San Bernardino: $2,580 monthly for January’s $515,500 median. That’s up $59 a month, or 2% versus recent lows, but $245 below, or 9%, the November 2023 high. The burden’s up 100% in six years. Down payment? $103,100.

The big pictures

Statewide, the latest rate would cost $3,489 per month for January’s $697,250 median-priced home. That’s up $80 a month, or 2%, versus recent lows, but $499 below, or 13% versus June 2024’s high. The burden’s up 82% in six years. Down payment? $139,500.

And nationally? That’s a $1,776 monthly payment for a $355,000 median. That’s up $41 a month, or 2%, versus recent lows, but $164 below, or 8%, June 2024’s high. The burden’s up 98% in six years. Down payment? $71,000.

Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com.