AC Transit estimates that it will have to cut roughly $53 million from its operating budget if voters don’t pass a transportation sales tax this November. Transit officials say this could force the agency to reduce bus services across the Bay Area, including in Berkeley.
These budget cuts could take effect as early as July 2027, the beginning of fiscal year 2027-28. For the upcoming fiscal year, the state of California will provide an operating loan to temporarily cover costs.
AC Transit has faced financial issues since the pandemic and has relied on emergency federal and state Covid-19 relief funds to cover operating costs. However, those reserves are now fully depleted, according to the agency’s website.
Now, the agency is counting on voters to pass SB 63. The bill would authorize a 14-year regional transportation sales tax that would generate $980 million for BART, AC Transit, Muni and Caltrain annually across five counties: Alameda, Contra Costa, San Francisco, San Mateo and Santa Clara.
However, if SB 63 does not pass, AC Transit will have to make drastic cuts to its operating budget in order to reduce expenses.
The AC Transit Board of Directors proposed frameworks for two alternative scenarios if its financial needs are not met at its March 25 board meeting. The most drastic scenario would have the agency cut costs by up to $53 million, resulting in a service reduction of 16.4%.
According to AC Transit spokesperson Robert Lyles, under this same scenario, up to 300 employees could face layoffs.
If service reductions to specific lines are made, they will be based on generated ridership and costs of providing service.
In other words, if routes do not meet 75% of average productivity standards for ridership, they are at risk of being reduced or eliminated. Similarly, if a route’s costs exceed 125% of the average cost, it may undergo service reductions.
This could result in buses running less frequently and coming every hour instead of every 20 to 30 minutes, according to Jean Walsh, the AC Transit Director representing Ward 2. Ward 2 serves Berkeley, Emeryville and parts of Oakland.
“No option is good because … frequent transit is what gets people to ride,” Walsh said. “So when you have a bus that only runs once an hour, it’s not going to get good ridership. It’s not going to really serve very many people, but it’s better than having no bus.”
Currently, the lowest-performing routes include Route 281, which serves Fremont, Union City and Hayward, and Route 19, which serves Downtown Oakland, Alameda and Fruitvale, with averages of 8.1 and 8.7 passengers per hour, respectively.
However, Walsh and Lyles emphasized that contingency plans are still in the early stages and that there is uncertainty over which lines may be impacted, including high-frequency routes.
AC Transit is aiming to avoid complete eliminations of routes; instead focusing on reducing span and frequency of routes if necessary, according to the proposed scenario.
The issue of looming budget cuts is not limited to AC Transit. If SB 63 does not pass this November, BART officials say they may have to close up to 15 stations.
“I really do encourage people to weigh in. Don’t sleep on it,” Walsh said. “You don’t want to wake up one day and realize that your bus has been cut. Now is the time to start really paying attention.”