I couldn’t say how often it happens, but every once in a while, the thought of buying a home in Arizona or Nevada pops into my mind.
Yes, the average temperature in Phoenix hovers between 104 degrees and 106 degrees from June through August, but the median home sale price is also a sizzling $461,000, according to Redfin.
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Compare that to the median home sale price for Los Angeles County of $949,000, according to realtor.com.
My colleague Terry Castleman wrote about the “alluring fantasy” among many Californians to cash out and “leave the Golden State for somewhere more affordable and less crowded.” Of course, that means leaving for a place that is figuratively and, in this case, literally, less cool.
Castleman wrote about a UC Berkeley study that suggested people who moved out of California experienced dramatically improved financial conditions.
Let’s take a closer look at some of those findings.
What was being examined
The researchers studied the finances of people who left California over the past decade to see how well they did in their new communities.
The California Policy Lab research covered people who left or arrived in California from 2016 to 2025 — millions in total.
They generally left for nearby states, such as Nevada and Arizona, but also for hot locales like Texas and Florida.
Give me the findings
People who left the state found that the move saved them almost $700 in monthly housing costs.
Those individuals were 48% more likely to own a home in their new state compared with California, where housing prices are notoriously high.
Although the research covered all types of people who left the state, the differences were most notable for those who were struggling with affordability in California.
One surprise from the California Policy Lab’s findings: Those leaving the state are increasingly moving out of its wealthiest areas.
The share of Californians departing the state from its top-third median-income areas rose by 6.4 percentage points between 2016 and 2025, while the shares from low- and middle-income neighborhoods dropped.
One interpretation
The pandemic caused a major shift in the type of person who leaves California, with residents of higher-income areas growing.
“The average exiter now leaves from a neighborhood that is 8.7% more affluent than in the pre-pandemic period,” the report stated.
Potential reasons for the flight
Evan White, a California Policy Lab co-founder and author of the report, noted that tech workers in upscale Bay Area districts who can work remotely might find more affordability elsewhere.
Another possibility is that lower-income residents “can’t keep up with the Joneses and aren’t able to attain the type of lifestyle they want to have,” causing them to look elsewhere, he said.
Other factors driving the outward push
The price of a basket of typical goods and services in California from 2016 to 2025 is up about 38%, according to the California Department of Industrial Relations.
Median home sale prices went up around 75% over the same span, per the state Employment Development Department.
Indeed, the data suggest that those leaving California are in significantly worse financial shape than their neighbors who stay. Those who left had $5,500 more (twice as much) student debt on average than their neighbors and 16% higher rates of credit card utilization.
The data, compiled over 10 years, are an indication of the affordability gap across California.
Final thoughts
Dowell Myers, a professor of policy, planning and demography at USC who was not involved in the research, said the Berkeley data reinforce the affordability challenges California faces, especially when it comes to housing.
The nearly $700 a month in lower housing costs is less than adequate compensation for those who leave the state, he argued, adding that many people leave because they have no other choice.
“It’s a really sad story,” he said.
Click the link for Castleman’s full story.
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