SAN JOSE — The odds help illustrate the San Jose Sharks’ bleak playoff outlook for this season.
In 24th place in the NHL’s overall standings after a pair of putrid results — and four points out of a playoff spot with four games to play — the Sharks, as of now, actually have a better chance (5%) of winning next month’s draft lottery and selecting first overall than making the postseason (4% or less, per various outlets).
But considerable improvement, not the playoffs, was always the organization’s expectation this season. To that end, as they get set to play the Vancouver Canucks on Saturday in their final regular-season home game, the Sharks, with 81 points, are on track to improve upon last year’s finish by 30 or more points.
But as the Sharks are finding out, going from plucky upstart to a perennial playoff team will be the organization’s most significant challenge.
After their lopsided losses to the Edmonton Oilers and Anaheim Ducks on Wednesday and Thursday, the Sharks are 5-8-1 since March 15 for a .393 points percentage that ranks 28th in the NHL, just ahead of non-playoff teams in Chicago, Seattle, Vancouver, and Florida. The 4.14 goals per game they’ve allowed during the slide are the second-most in the league, just ahead of the Canucks (4.58).
When the games got harder as the postseason got closer, the Sharks, too often, were not up to the task, as they went from being in a playoff spot four weeks ago to now being on the outside looking in.
Is that just symptomatic of having a lot of young players playing key roles right now, or is the issue more complex?
It’s a question Sharks players, coaches and managers will have to ask themselves this offseason.
“Right from puck drop, it’s not good enough this time of the year,” Sharks winger Kiefer Sherwood said bluntly after a 6-1 loss to the Ducks on Thursday at Honda Center. “We can’t be out-willed or outworked, and it’s unacceptable.
“It doesn’t matter if it’s a back-to-back. You saw (Wednesday) night, the other team wanted it more, and the same thing tonight. We have to learn from it, and I think we’ve got to look inwards here a little bit.”
Anaheim Ducks left wing Alex Killorn, third from left, celebrates with, from left to right, center Mikael Granlund, defenseman Tyson Hinds, and defenseman Drew Helleson after scoring during the second period of an NHL hockey game against the San Jose Sharks, Thursday, April 9, 2026, in Anaheim, Calif. (AP Photo/Ryan Sun)
Sherwood was talking about the players, but Sharks management has to look at the kind of team they are constructing and whether it’s on a path to being conducive to winning playoff-style games.
The Sharks’ goaltending looks set for next season, while the defense corps, with only two players signed past this season, figures to undergo a considerable makeover this summer. Up front, the Sharks have a ton of young skill and some players who play a physical brand, but do they have enough players who combine both qualities?
The Sharks have some big players, but they’re not necessarily a big team, at least not in their top nine.
Recent Stanley Cup champion teams like the Florida Panthers, Vegas Golden Knights, Tampa Bay Lightning, and St. Louis Blues showed that hard, heavy hockey is what wins right now and in the postseason.
Are the Sharks following that blueprint enough?
“Look, our team, the players in there, they’re fighting,” Sharks coach Ryan Warsofsky said Thursday night. “They know, they care, we’re working. But there’s a (learning) moment right now: how hard it is to play this time of year, how detailed and competitive you have to be, and we’ve probably not fully grasped that yet. So we’re learning that right now.”
Needing a win Thursday, the Sharks were again outplayed from the start, allowing two goals to the Ducks in the first 6:20 of the first period before they fell behind 4-0 by midway through the third.
“We really complicate the game, I would say,” Warsofsky said. “With some execution, with the way you have to play the game this time of year, especially. We make it difficult on ourselves. We really beat ourselves.
“That’s no disrespect to the Anaheim Ducks. They completely outplayed us tonight, but we make it really easy for teams to play against us.”
“We’re changing the standard,” Sherwood said. “It’s not OK to lose. It’s not OK to lose battles and lose (penalty kills) and just shifts on end. We’ve got to change things. Just not good enough tonight.”
The loss left the Sharks in 11th place in the Western Conference standings, and four points back of the Los Angeles Kings for the second wild card spot. Both the Sharks and the Kings have four games left.
Complicating matters is that the Sharks are also three points behind the Nashville Predators and one point behind the Winnipeg Jets. The Predators have three games left, including one against San Jose in Nashville on Monday, and the Jets have four, as they and the Sharks close the regular season in Winnipeg on Thursday.
The playoffs were not the Sharks’ expectation this season. Now it’s a matter of what the team will do to be in a better spot this time next year.
“Let’s see, we have four (games) left, if we can try to learn from it and move forward,” Warsofsky said, “try to find that extra little gear and not wait until next March or April.”