A Democratic candidate remains likely to win the California Governor election, despite Representative Eric Swalwell dropping out of the race.
Swalwell threw the race into disarray after he suspended his campaign for governor on Sunday following a wave of sexual misconduct and assault allegations, which he has denied.
According to Kalshi, an online prediction market, three Democratic candidates remain in the lead in a crowded field and their odds of success have only changed marginally.
Newsweek contacted Swalwell’s office outside of normal business hours for comment.
Why It Matters
Swalwell was one of the front-runners in the open primary to replace term-limited Democratic California Governor Gavin Newsom. His would-be voters will now have to choose another candidate to support and this may risk splintering the Democratic field and boosting the Republican Party’s chances of success.
However, California, the nation’s most populous state, is reliably Democratic. It backed former Vice President Kamala Harris by 20 points last November and hasn’t elected a Republican governor since Arnold Schwarzenegger served between 2003 and 2011.
The state uses a jungle primary system, where all candidates, regardless of political party, run on a single ballot for the primary. The two candidates with the most votes advance to the general election.
What To Know
According to Kalshi, there is a 56 percent chance that American businessman and philanthropist Tom Steyer, a Democrat, will become the next California governor, up from 51 percent on Sunday.
Former Democratic California Representative Katie Porter, who served in the House from 2019 to 2025, carries odds of 17 percent of winning the race, up 5 percentage points from Sunday.
The Democratic Mayor of San Jose, Matt Mahan is close behind Porter. There is a 16 percent chance that he will win the race.
Meanwhile, Republican candidates are trailing behind their Democratic rivals. Steve Hilton, who used to advise former British Prime Minister David Cameron and hosted a show on Fox News for six years is the GOP candidate leading his colleagues—but he still only has odds of 5.6 percent of winning the race.
It comes after the San Francisco Chronicle reported that a former staffer accused Swalwell of sexually assaulting her in 2019, when she worked for him, and again in 2024 at a charity gala—both times when she was too intoxicated to consent. CNN later reported another former staffer made similar accusations, with three additional women alleging other instances of misconduct including unsolicited explicit messages and inappropriate physical contact. Swalwell has denied all the allegations.
What People Are Saying
Eric Swalwell wrote on X Sunday evening: “I am suspending my campaign for governor. To my family, staff, friends, and supporters, I am deeply sorry for mistakes in judgment I’ve made in my past. I will fight the serious, false allegations that have been made—but that’s my fight, not a campaign’s.”
Representative Byron Donalds, a Florida Republican, told Kristen Welker’s Meet the Press on Sunday: “These allegations are despicable and they demean the integrity of Congress. These things are just completely unacceptable.”
GOP strategist Mike Madrid wrote on X on Tuesday: “California Democrats could just elevate one of the Republicans in the gubernatorial primary and prevent a lock out. It’s done all the time. I don’t get all the bed wetting.”
House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries, Democratic Whip Katherine Clark, and Democratic Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar, in a joint statement: “Following the incredibly disturbing sexual assault accusations against Congressman Eric Swalwell, we call for a swift investigation into these incidents and for the congressman to immediately end his campaign to be California’s next governor.”
What Happens Next
California’s primary is scheduled for June 2026. The gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place on November 3, 2026.
Swalwell is also facing calls to resign from Congress over the sexual assault allegations.