Eric Swalwell before the fall.
Photo: Demetrius Freeman/The Washington Post/Getty Images

Until April 10, the general tenor of California’s contest to determine a successor to two-term governor Gavin Newsom had been low-key, even a bit sleepy. A large but far from star-studded field of eight Democrats and two Republicans had been slogging toward the June 3 nonpartisan top-two primary with no clear front-runner and all sorts of scenarios appearing possible, including a partisan “lockout” in which two members from one party (even the very unpopular GOP) might take both general-election spots.

But now the sudden implosion of Congressman Eric Swalwell’s campaign over serial allegations of sexual misconduct toward staff has given the somnolent contest tons of attention while scrambling expectations. Swalwell officially threw in the towel on Sunday amid mass demands from supporters and staff that he withdraw, two days after the San Francisco Chronicle broke the story of his alleged misdeeds.

The congressman had been polling at or near the top of the field recently while slowly accumulating an impressive list of endorsements from prominent elected officials and unions, including the California Federation of Labor Unions and the SEIU. He was becoming the de facto candidate of the state’s Democratic Establishment as its own roster of current and recent statewide election officials (superintendent of public instruction Tony Thurmond, former state attorney general Xavier Becerra, and former state controller Betty Yee) failed to catch fire. Now he’s gone, with mail ballots due to go out to every registered California voter in early May.

This creates all sorts of opportunities among the remaining seven Democrats running for governor. Billionaire and 2020 presidential candidate Tom Steyer had already lifted himself into contention by spending an estimated $89 million of his hedge-fund fortune on ads depicting him as a progressive “outsider” ready to take on Sacramento’s corporate lobbies. Former congresswoman Katie Porter (a protégée of Elizabeth Warren) had built a strong base of support among the left wing of California Democrats after cryptocurrency interests spent heavily to demolish her 2024 U.S. Senate candidacy. Either of those candidates could poach enough of Swalwell’s support to become a clear front-runner as voting grows nearer.

But the more interesting possibility is that Swalwell’s self-destruction creates an opening for a centrist option to emerge from the ranks of the current also-rans. The most likely aspirants for that role are Becerra, whose impressive résumé has been offset by a poorly financed and lackluster campaign; former Los Angeles mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, who retains some name ID from past statewide campaigns; and San Jose mayor Matt Mahan, a scourge of progressives with significant (and controversial) backing from Silicon Valley moguls.

Lurking in the background is the possibility that, with much of Swalwell’s support going to low-polling Democrats, the two Republicans in the race — Fox News gabber Steve Hilton and Riverside County sheriff Chad Bianco — could finish first and second and execute the much-feared lockout despite relatively little support for either. Just a week ago, Donald Trump diminished that possibility by endorsing Hilton, improving his chances of making the general election but damaging Bianco’s. But this weekend, the California Republican Party failed to endorse either candidate at its state convention (Bianco narrowly led Hilton but fell short of the 60 percent support from delegates necessary for an endorsement), giving Bianco some hope for survival. Without question, there will be avid attention on the next batch of credible gubernatorial polls given the dramatic developments in both parties.

Fearful Democrats could perhaps avoid this scenario if powerful members of the party anoint a new front-runner, as CNN reported: “One possibility, as Democrats seek to prevent the party from being shut out of the general election, is that Newsom, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Sens. Alex Padilla and Adam Schiff could work together to endorse and rally support for one candidate.”

In any event, the Swalwell disaster will cast a long shadow on the contest. It is very likely to remain in the news for a while as the House mulls an effort to censure or even expel him, perhaps in conjunction with disciplinary actions against other scandal-afflicted colleagues (Republicans Tony Gonzales of Texas and Cory Mills of Florida, along with Democrat Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick). Beyond that and its effect on the gubernatorial election, the fallen pol’s example may serve as a warning to other lawmakers tempted to prey on their employees. There does seem to be an abundant supply of potential perps and victims.

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