With respect to current redistricting efforts in states nationwide and California’s Proposition 50, it is important to understand that Republicans already had a sizable gerrymandering bias advantage without the recent changes by Texas. Redistricting in Texas boosts the Republican advantage by five seats.
In the 2024 congressional elections, the independent and nonpartisan Brennan Center for Justice stated: “Both parties engaged in gerrymandering after the 2020 census, but, overall, the bias in this cycle’s maps strongly favors Republicans due primarily to aggressive gerrymandering in GOP strongholds in the South and Midwest.” The Brennan Center estimated that this gave Republicans an advantage of around 16 House seats in 2024 compared to fair maps.
In the 2024 House election, the Republicans won 220 seats, the Democrats 215. It is highly probable that current Republican control of the House is due to gerrymandering bias in their favor. In its election analysis, the Brennan Center points to the gerrymandered red state of North Carolina as a key to Republicans capturing the House. Before the 2024 election, the GOP-controlled legislature replaced a neutrally drawn map that had elected seven Democrats and seven Republicans with one that gave Republicans 10 of the 14 seats.
All states must follow legal minimums governing redistricting per the U.S. Constitution and federal law. No state is required to exceed federal law unless there are such requirements in their own state law, as is the case in a dwindling number of states including California. Such state requirements can be changed and that is what a yes vote on Proposition 50 will accomplish in California.
According to Politico, Republicans hold a “clear advantage” in gerrymandering that will likely continue to grow: “The GOP is poised to move forward with redistricting in Florida, Ohio, Missouri and Indiana, which could yield at least half a dozen more seats. Democrats, meanwhile, have struggled to get gerrymandering efforts moving in blue states beyond California.”
In November 2024, Ohio voters failed to pass a state constitutional amendment requiring a citizens redistricting committee decide on congressional districts rather than state politicians. This initiative was opposed by Ohio Republicans. Meanwhile, California Republicans strongly oppose any effort to change the way redistricting is currently done by taking that process away from the California Citizens Redistricting Commission and giving the power to California politicians. These battles are not about principle. They are part of a purely political effort to game the system for advantage.
The only way to attain a fair and unbiased system of determining districts nationwide is with an act of Congress. Democrats have pushed for federal legislation to establish such national standards for congressional redistricting. Republicans, reaping the benefit of the current system, have generally opposed it.
The leading argument by Republicans against an act of Congress to stop gerrymandering in every state is “states’ rights.” Yet, in California, Republicans brought multiple lawsuits to stop Proposition 50 from even getting on the ballot so state voters could decide how redistricting would be done going forward.
I firmly believe that the process for redistricting should be carried out neutrally nationwide. But that will never happen under the current federal law and the highly politicized nature of the current process. This is now a political war that has escalated far beyond the ethical platitudes some use to argue against Proposition 50.
Therefore, fairness dictates that blue states take action and gerrymander to the greatest extent allowed under federal law to correct the unfair advantage taken by Republicans, thereby leveling the playing field. Sadly, this is the only realistic path to possibly gain Republican support for a federal redistricting law providing a standard for fair and neutral redistricting every state must follow.
The stakes are much too high for blue states to go beyond what the law requires while more red states use current law to advantage Republicans. It should not be forgotten that red states already have a systemic electoral advantage in respect to both the Senate and Electoral College that may never change. There is no moral imperative for blue states to provide Republicans with this additional advantage in the House. California should be in the vanguard of states fighting for a fairer democracy in America by passing Proposition 50.
Lampe is a retired professor of business law, ethics and social responsibility at the University of San Diego’s School of Business.