Photo: Jessica Christian/San Francisco Chronicle/Getty Images
While governor of California is one of the biggest jobs in America, for months the 2026 election has looked like a real snoozer. Now it’s suddenly turned into a huge mess for Democrats. This week, Eric Swalwell dropped out of the race and resigned from his U.S. House seat following credible rape and sexual-misconduct allegations. Since Swalwell was the leading Democrat in the race, his exit has revived fears that the November general election will feature two Republicans competing for the governorship of this very blue state.
Two general-election spots are up for grabs in the nonpartisan primary that concludes on June 2. Prior to Swalwell’s exit, RealClearPolitics polling averages showed four other candidates with support in the low to mid-teens. After Swalwell, Tom Steyer and Katie Porter led among Democrats. The top Republicans are Chad Bianco and Steve Hilton.
Trump’s recent Hilton endorsement seemed to ensure that he’d win the GOP vote, ironically ending the threat of a GOP “lockout” in November. But with Swalwell’s voters up for grabs, that threat has reemerged. Multiple low-polling Democrats now see a path to victory. This includes former state attorney general Xavier Becerra, former Los Angeles mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, and San Jose mayor Matt Mahan, who are all from the moderate wing of the party, like Swalwell. Mail ballots are set to go out to every California voter in early May. So there’s little time for Democratic power brokers to maneuver to prevent an all-GOP November race.
The obvious big dog among these potential power brokers is term-limited California governor Gavin Newsom. The incumbent — who is very busy running the state, trolling Trump, and lusting for the 2028 presidential nomination — has refused to get involved up until now. But it will surely damage his career if he doesn’t do everything within his power to avoid handing the keys to the governor’s office to a MAGA Republican next January. So California’s worried Democrats are turning their lonely eyes to Newsom for a way out of their quandary.
Whom might he bless with his support? According to CNN’s Edward-Isaac Dovere, Newsom originally wanted the man he appointed to the U.S. Senate to replace Kamala Harris, Alex Padilla, to run for governor this year. He also appeared to be fine with some of his former operatives helping Swalwell. With those two options off the table, the governor may see the rest of the field as far less than ideal:
Newsom worries that Tom Steyer, the billionaire investor, would be too all over the place on positions and management to effectively run the state. He worries that Katie Porter, the former congresswoman, would drive business out. He has had a contentious personal relationship with San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan. He ran against former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa eight years ago, and the strain between them is still there. He has reservations about how former Biden Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, appointed by former Gov. Jerry Brown to be state attorney general after Harris was elected a US senator in 2016, handled that job.
There’s been some vague social-media chatter about a write-in campaign for Kamala Harris. She probably would have cleared the field, avoiding this whole mess, had she decided to run. But she doesn’t seem to want the job. Plus adding another candidate at the last minute could further fracture the Democratic field and improve the odds of a GOP lockout. So Newsom and other California Democratic leaders need to decide whether to come together and simulate enthusiasm for one of the existing candidates or just hope for the best. A straw in the wind is a one-day SUSA poll conducted mostly before Swalwell’s implosion that shows the heavy-spending Steyer pulling away from the Democratic field: He has 21 percent, Steve Hilton has 18 percent, and nobody else is in double digits. If that’s actually the way the wind is blowing (and he did just get an endorsement from the California Teachers Association that originally went to Swalwell), Steyer may be on the brink of putting the race away.
If, however, Newsom or others have a different favorite, the odds are good that support for Steyer or anyone else is shallow and potentially fungible. California’s powers and principalities probably have a few days to make an assessment and then a move. The gubernatorial gig is an awesome responsibility, given the Golden State’s size, diversity, and many problems. For Democrats, the possibility that Donald Trump could spend his last two years in office gloating about one of his minions wrecking everything Newsom did in Sacramento is a problem they really need to solve.
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