California voters still primarily undecided in upcoming gubernatorial election.
SACRAMENTO, Calif. — A new poll offers an early look at California’s governor’s race following Congressman Eric Swalwell’s exit, showing a crowded field and a large share of undecided voters.
An Emerson College and Inside California Politics poll conducted this week finds Republican Steve Hilton leading at 17%, with Chad Bianco and Tom Steyer tied at 14%.
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Xavier Becerra saw the biggest increase, rising from 3% in March to 10%, where he is now tied with Katie Porter. San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan is at 5%.
Despite the movement, nearly a quarter of the 1,000 likely voters surveyed remain undecided, leaving the race wide open ahead of the June primary.
With Swalwell out, strategists say Democratic candidates may have an opportunity to gain ground, though the impact of his departure remains uncertain.
“Looking back at the ‘98 race, 3% is a few 100,000 votes. So, a few 100,000 votes can make a big difference one way or another,” said Andrew Acosta, a Democratic strategist.
Acosta said it may be too early to determine who benefits most from Swalwell leaving the race, noting that every vote will be critical in June.
Republican consultant Tab Berg said Becerra’s recent surge may not last, but pointed to another candidate gaining traction.
“The one that I’m paying the most attention to now is San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, who I think has shown steady growth,” Berg said.
Swalwell’s name will still appear on the June primary ballot, and Acosta said he’s skeptical of former Swalwell supporters quickly endorsing other candidates.
“He probably will get some amount of vote, not a ton, but it’s still one of those things that as voters now are figuring out that it’s not Swalwell, then they have to figure out, OK, then who’s next,” Acosta said.
Under California’s primary system, the top two vote-getters, regardless of party, advance to the November election.
Berg said a matchup between two Republicans is unlikely.
“There’s a less than 10% chance of a Republican versus a Republican. There’s about a 25% chance of a Democrat versus a Democrat. But it’s a 65 to 70% chance that it’s going to be a Republican versus a Democrat,” Berg said.
The poll also highlights the issues driving voters, with the economy ranked as the top concern at 41%, followed by housing affordability at 20%.
Candidates in the race continue to emphasize those issues as central to their campaigns.
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