Griffin Wong breaks down his analysis, prediction, and pick for the Kings at Thunder game Tuesday.
We’re only a week into the 2025-26 NBA regular season, but there are only four undefeated teams remaining: the Oklahoma City Thunder, the San Antonio Spurs, the Chicago Bulls, and the Philadelphia 76ers.
Tonight, Oklahoma City will have the chance to become the first team to 5-0 when it welcomes the Sacramento Kings to Paycom Center for an 8 p.m. ET clash. Sacramento will have a rest advantage, having lost to the Los Angeles Lakers on Sunday, while the Thunder secured a win over the Dallas Mavericks last night. The home side will be without Chet Holmgren tonight as he works his way through a back injury.
Despite the rest disadvantage and Holmgren’s injury, Oklahoma City is a 9.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-395 on the Moneyline), and the point total is set to 227.5. The Kings, meanwhile, are +310 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down this clash and offer a prediction.
Sacramento Kings at Oklahoma City Thunder preview, prediction
So far for the Thunder, it’s been no Jalen Williams, no problem. The All-NBA forward has yet to suit up this season while recovering from offseason wrist surgery, but the rest of Oklahoma City’s roster has picked up the slack. 2024-25 MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has picked up right where he left off, averaging 35.8 points per game and getting to the free throw line at an even higher rate than last season despite his three-point shot not falling. Holmgren has blossomed even further, averaging 23.0 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 1.3 blocks per game on 57-42-86 shooting splits. Ajay Mitchell has emerged, virtually out of nowhere, to average 18.3 points per game.
The sailing hasn’t been quite as smooth for Sacramento, which sits at 1-2 after falling to a Lakers team without Luka Dončić or LeBron James. While there have been some promising signs — Malik Monk has drained 63.2% of his deep tries this season and currently ranks eighth by box plus-minus — the rest of the pieces haven’t quite fallen into place. Domantas Sabonis has been limited as he works his way back from a hamstring injury, and DeMar DeRozan’s 19.0 points per game would be his lowest since 2012-13. To make matters worse, rookie Nique Clifford suffered a hamstring strain in his first game as a pro and hasn’t suited up since.
Kings at Thunder pick, best bet
The Thunder haven’t been quite as dominant to open the season, going to double-overtime against both the Houston Rockets and Indiana Pacers and surviving a late charge to dispatch the Mavericks last night. However, the elements of one of the best teams in NBA history are still there: they have the league’s best defensive rating and have forced the ninth-most turnovers while committing the third-fewest. They’ve gotten to the free throw line nearly seven more times per game than they did last season, and like last season, they’ve been elite at preventing both points in the paint and fast break points, though they merely rank fourth and third in those two categories after ranking first in both in 2024-25.
The Kings have had an above-average defense so far and struggled offensively, which isn’t the first thing that might be expected for a team featuring an offense-first star trio in Sabonis, DeRozan, and Zach LaVine. Sacramento’s solid defensive rating might start to slip later in the season, given that it ranked just 23rd in that stat last season after Doug Christie was hired as interim coach, but perhaps Christie will keep developing stronger schemes in his first full season in charge and perhaps defensive-oriented shooting guard Keon Ellis will re-claim his spot in the starting lineup. Last season, Gilgeous-Alexander was rather efficient as a scorer in his 69.2 partial possessions against Ellis, but he coughed the ball up seven times and dished out only four assists. Offseason acquisition Dennis Schröder did do a good job against Gilgeous-Alexander, limiting him to five-for-14 shooting.
Sabonis could have an opportunity to enjoy his best performance of the season without Holmgren manning the middle. Last season, among the 50 players to play at least 30 games and defend at least five shots within six feet of the rim per game, Holmgren held opponents to the lowest percentage, and he ranks second in defensive win shares this season despite worse raw rim protection numbers. Isaiah Hartenstein isn’t a shabby defender either, and Jaylin Williams is also a respectable backup, but neither is a one-man wrecking crew in the way that Holmgren is. This season, in the 75 minutes that Holmgren has been off the floor, opponents’ rebound and assist percentages both jump by nearly 10 percentage points. Oklahoma City’s offensive rating is also 17.0 points worse per 100 possessions without its man in the middle.
Without Holmgren, the Thunder’s other four starters will need to hit their shots. So far this season, Oklahoma City has been the league’s worst three-point shooting team after finishing sixth in that stat last season. The Thunder will also need to do a better job controlling the glass, as they’ve allowed the seventh-most rebounds per game and are going against one of the league’s best on the boards in Sacramento. Thankfully for them, the Kings were the league’s worst team at defending opposing shooters last season, while Oklahoma City was the league’s best. It’s a battle of strength-on-strength: Sacramento ranks third in the league in three-point percentage so far, but — Monk aside — no players are having anomalous seasons.
Each of the Kings’ games have been close, and though the Thunder are extremely deep and due for a good shooting night, I’m not sure that a blowout is in order without their defensive anchor, Holmgren, on the court. I’ll take Sacramento to cover the spread.
Best bet: Sacramento Kings +9.5 (-118)