California’s economy, as measured by gross domestic product, did surprisingly well in the first year of the second Trump administration.
My trusty spreadsheet looked at the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ tally of business output growth for the states and found that California’s GDP was up 2.4% for 2025.
That was the 11th-best performance among the states and topped the 2% expansion of the national economy.
California’s outperformance seems odd when the White House’s “America First” business thinking collides with California’s global focus. California consumer confidence, for example, hit a five-year low last year.
President Donald Trump’s second administration has featured some unorthodox economic tactics. Trade wars, fueled by steep tariffs and an immigration crackdown, have jolted businesses.
The top state economies for GDP growth in 2025 were Massachusetts (3.3%), Kansas (2.9%) and South Dakota (2.9%).
There were two decliners: the District of Columbia (off 2.4%) and Maryland (off 0.1%), both suffering from Trump’s steep cuts to federal government staffing.
As for California’s key rivals, the Texas economy grew 2.4% last year, ranking 13th among the states. Florida was up 2.7%, ranking 8th.
Contemplate that 2025’s economy was significantly slower than the overall business pace of Trump’s first presidency, which saw a major business upswing that was dulled by the pandemic’s outbreak in 2020.
Consider the swift GDP pace between 2017 and 2020, California’s economy averaged 3.9% annual growth – No. 5 among the states vs. 2.5% nationally.
Top performers were Idaho, averaging 5.8% GDP growth per year; Utah, at 5.4%; and Washington state, at 4.8%. There were three decliners: Hawaii (down 1%), Alaska (down 0.3%) and Louisiana (down 0.04%).
The Texas economy grew at a 3.4% pace in Trump’s first presidency, not the best, while Florida was up 3.3%, No. 11.
Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com