Fernando Tatis Jr.’s power numbers are way down, but I’m confident that Padres Hall of Famer Tony Gwynn would not be alarmed by the basics of what Tatis is doing with the bat.
On the contrary.
Tatis has maintained a fairly consistent approach through 22 games and 95 plate appearances. He’s waiting on pitches, staying on them and putting good wood on the ball.
Gwynn said that over 162 games, those habits lead to overall success.
If a batted ball zooms 95-plus mph, it’s graded as a “hard hit” by MLB statisticians.
Tatis’ hard-hit rate of 67.7% leads all big-leaguers. Slotted one spot behind Tatis: former Padres prospect James Wood of the Washington Nationals.
Tatis isn’t pulling the ball over the left-field wall. That’s not typical of him.
He has zero home runs and a .304 slug rate.
The 27-year-old has emphasized inside-out hitting. In mid-February, a day after he took his first at-bats in the Cactus League, he drove a pair of balls to right field, and for the most part, he has stuck with that angle of attack.
The tall righty is pulling just 24.2% of his balls put in play — well below his 42% career pull rate, which never has finished below 38.5%.
He’s keeping right-side fielders extra busy. Almost 40% of his balls have gone to the opposite field. His career “oppo” rate: 20%.
Why aren’t the hard hits translating into home runs?
Two factors to consider: Tatis is hitting the ball deeper in the pitch’s journey than is typically optimal for home runs, and he’s not lofting the ball as often.
Saturday’s game brought a vivid example of his intent to stay on — and inside — the pitch. When a 96-mph sinker ran toward his chest, he redirected it the other way. The result: a bleeder single to right field, bringing in a key run for the surging Padres (15-7).
Per the 14-year, $340 million contract Peter Seidler and A.J. Preller gave him in February 2021, Tatis gets a lot of money every year.
He’s expected to hit numerous home runs. All of the World Series winners of recent years hit a lot of home runs.
But I’d advise going easy on a contract’s implications.
Dollars pledged are irrelevant to a player’s present-day aptitude.
The great players have to be great adapters; numerous variables will affect their aptitude. It’s a constant test of nimbleness.
Gwynn, for one, adjusted to the many health issues that affected his swing and plate coverage. He coped with umpires re-establishing the higher strike deep in his career, a challenge he commented upon to his son, Tony Jr.
Late in his career, Gwynn considered the advice of a brilliant friend. “Major league history is made on that ball inside,” Hall of Famer Ted Williams thundered at him in 1995.
Gwynn began to pull more pitches, posting his two-highest home run totals — 17 and 16 — in 1997 and 1998, respectively. At the same time, he remained confident in his core, inside-out approach.
Already in his career, Tatis has been tasked with considerable challenges.
They include: recurring left shoulder looseness that led to surgery, two wrist surgeries, a stress reaction in his lower back, a stress fracture in his right thigh, an 80-game suspension for a banned performance-enhancing substance and numerous plunkings, in part due to Tatis Jr.’s habit of “diving” into pitches.
MLB pitchers, meantime, are serving up ever-increasing velocity, spin and pitch-shaping.
So, it’s too ambitious to try to trace the cause and effect of Tatis hitting 42 home runs in 2021 — showing good power to all fields — followed by 25, 21 and 25 home runs after missing all of the 2022 season due to injury and suspension.
This can be said with certainty: Tatis improved at managing the strike zone last year, yielding his best full season of on-base percentage (.368) and walk rate (12.5%).
Moved off shortstop, where he was both spectacular and uneven, he has become a top-tier right fielder.
Last year, he was a very good all-around ballplayer. His 6.1 win shares, when converted to a dollar scale based on what a player would make as a free agent, equated to $48.7 million, per the analytics of FanGraphs.com.
Now, we’ll see what his hard-earned, hard-hit foundation brings.