The budget that would take effect in July comprises $3.1 billion for operations and $1.2 billion for capital expenditures. It will close a $307 million near-term deficit by relying on funds from a $200 million state loan along with moderate increases to fares, parking fees and penalties. Leaders at SFMTA also saved $246 million by chopping about 500 vacant positions, renegotiating some contracts, canceling one-time investments and running buses in dedicated lanes that improved service without adding to the agency’s workforce.

With these changes in place, SFMTA will achieve financial equilibrium in a moment of deep uncertainty. Transit advocates are urging the public to approve a regional sales tax in November that would serve as a ballast for BART, Muni, Caltrain and AC Transit, as well as a local parcel tax targeted to boost San Francisco transit. The regional tax would generate $155 million a year specifically for Muni, while the city tax would reap $150 million annually to fund buses and trains, plus $10 million to ramp up service. 

Absent that money, SFMTA would cut bus routes, largely focusing on express lines to downtown, buses that serve low-density areas in the hills, and corridors that have redundant service. Additionally, the agency may slash its three treasured cable car lines and the F-Market & Wharves historic streetcars. Also on the chopping block: up to 60% of evening service after 9 p.m. and special event lines to Golden State Warriors and Valkyries games at Chase Center, Fleet Week, music festivals in Golden Gate Park, and Giants games at Oracle Park.

Thus the new budget includes many unknowns for Muni. The agency could be heading toward a renaissance, or a lean future in which San Franciscans struggle to get to work and wind up stuck in traffic more often. Some worry they will no longer be able to date if few buses run at night.

“It has not been easy to come up with a balanced budget, and I know we brought you all a lot of hard choices,” SFMTA Director Julie Kirschbaum said, introducing the budget proposal during Tuesday’s board meeting. “We are going to have to keep up our efforts to stretch every public dollar by doing our work to be as efficient as possible.”

But Board Director Steve Heminger noted that it took a crisis for SFMTA to start trimming its head count and excess costs. He expressed hope that the “efficiencies” staff had identified would stick.

“The budget is balanced only because we’re on the edge of a fiscal cliff,” Heminger said. “But the cliff isn’t gone. It’s lurking over there.”