Prop 50 tracker | 4.9 million ballots for special California election returned
BEFORE THE YEAR’S OUT IN DECEMBER. WELL, HERE WE ARE. IT’S A WEEK LEFT TO VOTE IN THE NOVEMBER SPECIAL ELECTION HERE IN CALIFORNIA, AND MILLIONS OF CALIFORNIA VOTERS HAVE ALREADY CAST THEIR BALLOTS. KURTIS MING IS HERE NOW TO BREAK DOWN THE LATEST NUMBERS SHOWING US WHO’S ALREADY VOTED. YEAH, WE’RE HERE WITH PAUL MITCHELL OF POLITICAL DATA, INC. A REMINDER, HE IS THE GUY THAT THE DEMOCRATS HIRED TO DRAW THESE CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS THAT EVERYBODY IS VOTING ON. SO LET’S TAKE A LOOK AT THE COUNTIES THAT HAVE VOTED SO FAR. THE PRECINCTS, I SHOULD SAY. THESE AREN’T THE DISTRICTS YOU DREW, BUT THESE ARE VARIOUS PRECINCTS. WE HAVE VARIOUS SHADES OF RED, BLUE, WHITE. WHAT DOES THAT MEAN? WELL, THIS IS REALLY SHOWING AND THIS IS TRUE FOR ANYBODY WHO’S REALLY STUDIED THE STATE IN THE BAY AREA, ALONG THE COAST, YOU SEE A LOT OF HEAVY DEMOCRATIC TURNOUT. SAME THING DOWN IN LOS ANGELES. BUT IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. THAT’S WHERE YOU SEE A LOT MORE HEAVY REPUBLICAN TURNOUT. AND RIGHT HERE WHERE WE’RE IN SACRAMENTO, IT’S KIND OF A MIX WITH MORE URBAN AREAS HAVING HIGHER DEMOCRATIC TURNOUT, BUT MORE REPUBLICAN AREAS, MORE CONSERVATIVE TURNOUT. THE THING THAT WILL PROBABLY SEE IS SOME OF THESE MORE CONSERVATIVE AREAS, SAY, PLACER COUNTY. A LOT OF THOSE VOTERS ARE SAYING THEY’RE GOING TO VOTE ON ELECTION DAY. A LOT OF THOSE REPUBLICANS, MAYBE THEY DON’T REALLY TRUST THE VOTE BY MAIL SYSTEM, SO THEY’LL VOTE LATER. BUT THEN AT THE SAME TIME, IF YOU GO DOWN TO UC DAVIS OR SAC STATE ON ELECTION DAY, YOU’RE GOING TO SEE LINES OUT THE DOOR WITH A LOT OF YOUNG PEOPLE VOTING ON ELECTION DAY, TOO. SO AN INTERESTING MIX OF PEOPLE, WHEN THEY VOTE WILL BE REALLY CRITICAL. IN A REMINDER, THIS ISN’T SHOWING HOW PEOPLE VOTED. IT IS SHOWING THE PARTY THAT IS VOTING. EXACTLY. BUT ONE OF THE THINGS ABOUT THIS BALLOT MEASURE IS IT ISN’T SO MUCH ABOUT LINES, BUT IT’S ABOUT PARTIZAN AFFILIATION. THE PARTIZANSHIP HERE IN THE POLLING IS ONE OF THE MOST, YOU KNOW, ONE OF THE STRONGEST FACTORS. SO IN A LOT OF WAYS, YOU KNOW, GEOGRAPHY DOESN’T VOTE. SO THE LARGE NUMBER OF RED AREAS DOESN’T MEAN A LOT MORE REPUBLICAN VOTERS, ABOUT A QUARTER OF THE ELECTORATE SO FAR THAT’S COME IN IS REPUBLICAN. BUT THE PARTY LINE VOTE IS GOING TO BE REALLY CRITICAL IN THIS BALLOT MEASURE. SO LET’S LOOK, OVERALL RIGHT NOW WE WANT TO PULL UP HOW MANY HAVE VOTED SO FAR. THIS IS ABOUT A 21% TURNOUT ONE WEEK OUT FROM THE ELECTION. WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF THAT. WELL FIRST OFF WE THINK TURNOUT IS GOING TO BE ABOUT 50%. SO OF THAT LEFT HAND SIDE, WE FILLED UP ABOUT A 40% OF THAT. SO ABOUT 40% OF THE EXPECTED VOTE IS IN. BUT WHEN WE LOOK AT THE WHO HAS VOTED SO FAR, WE’RE GOING TO SEE THAT IT’S NOT JUST ALL GROUPS VOTING EQUALLY. IT REALLY DOES HAVE SOME KEY DISTINCTIONS AMONG AGE, ETHNICITY, PARTIZANSHIP. ALL RIGHT, SO LET’S BREAK IT DOWN BY PARTY. I THINK WE HAVE A GRAPHIC THAT SHOWS THAT. AND IF WE LOOK AT THIS POINT, 24% OF THE BALLOTS ARE BACK. ARE DEMOCRATS, 22% OF THE REPUBLICANS WHO HAVE BALLOTS HAVE RETURNED THEM INDEPENDENTS. IT’S 14%. WHAT WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF THAT? WELL, FIRST OFF, WHEN WE WERE HERE LAST TIME, BOTH DEMOCRATS AND REPUBLICANS WERE EQUALLY AT 18% AND DEMOCRATS WERE ABOUT 50% OF THE BALLOTS THAT HAVE BEEN RETURNED. DEMOCRATS HAVE BEEN MOVING UP A LITTLE BIT LATELY. AS WE SEE MORE YOUNG PEOPLE AND MORE LATINOS TURNING IN THEIR BALLOTS, WE EXPECT THAT REPUBLICAN SHARE OF THE ELECTORATE TO GO UP. LIKE I SAID, CLOSER TO ELECTION DAY. AND WHAT’S REALLY STRIKING IS THE INDEPENDENTS. ON THIS GRAPHIC, YOU CAN SEE THE INDEPENDENCE OF THE SMALLEST GROUP IN TERMS OF REGISTRATION. THERE’S MORE INDEPENDENTS THAN THERE ARE THESE REPUBLICANS. SO SITTING OUT AT THIS POINT, THEY’RE SITTING OUT. AND I THINK IT’S POSSIBLE THAT THEY PROBABLY SIT OUT PRETTY MUCH THIS ENTIRE CYCLE. A LOT OF INDEPENDENTS ARE SEEING THIS REAL PARTIZAN AIR WAR ON TV AND A LOT OF THE MEDIA, AND SEEING THAT THE ELECTION DOESN’T REALLY SPEAK TO THEM. ALL RIGHT. LET’S TALK ABOUT AGE GROUPS AND DEMOGRAPHICS. IT WAS EXPECTED THAT EARLY ON, WE WOULD HAVE MANY MORE PEOPLE WHO ARE 65 AND UP GETTING THEIR BALLOTS RETURNED RIGHT AWAY. BUT VERY FEW YOUNG PEOPLE HAD RETURNED THEIR BALLOTS AS OF LAST WEEK, A WEEK LATER. WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF THIS PICTURE RIGHT HERE? WELL, ON THE FAR LEFT YOU CAN SEE THOSE YOUNG PEOPLE ARE AT 9% TURNOUT AND SENIORS ARE AT 39. WHEN WE LOOK AT SENIORS, THIS IS WHAT WE WOULD EXPECT. A HIGH TURNOUT, ESPECIALLY EARLY. BUT IT’S ACTUALLY THE GAP IS CLOSING A LITTLE BIT. YOU’RE STARTING TO SEE SENIORS IN THE BALLOTS AS WE GO DAY BY DAY, BEING A SMALLER AND SMALLER SHARE OF THE ELECTORATE. AND YOU’RE STARTING TO SEE THESE YOUNG PEOPLE LIKE THOSE 50 AND UNDER BEING AN INCREASINGLY LARGER SHARE. WE WOULD HOPE THAT THIS WOULD CLOSE UP ENTIRELY, THAT YOU’D SEE AN ELECTORATE THAT REALLY REFLECTED THE STATE’S POPULATION IN TERMS OF AGE. BUT I THINK AT THE END OF THE DAY, THESE EARLY BALLOTS ARE BANKED, ARE REALLY GOING TO MEAN THAT THE FINAL VOTE WILL BE DRIVEN A LOT MORE BY OLDER VOTERS. ALL RIGHT. NOW WE’RE GOING TO TALK ABOUT THE RACIAL MAKEUP OF THE PEOPLE WHO HAVE RETURNED THEIR BALLOTS. SO 25% OF WHITE AND OTHER BALLOTS HAVE COME BACK. ONLY 12% OF LATINO AND 19% FOR BOTH ASIAN AND AFRICAN AMERICAN. WHAT DOES THIS TELL US? WELL, THERE’S A COUPLE THINGS. ONE IS I WANT TO POINT THIS 12% LATINO LATINOS ARE AT 12% TURNOUT. BUT OLDER LATINOS, THEY MIGHT BE, YOU KNOW, 25, 28% TURNOUT. YOUNGER LATINOS, 18 TO 34 YEAR OLD LATINOS ARE AT 7% TURNOUT RIGHT NOW. SO A LOT OF THE REASON WHY LATINO TURNOUT IS A LOT LOWER IS THAT LATINOS ARE PREDOMINANTLY YOUNGER. ON THE VOTER FILE, THERE ARE 2.5 MILLION YOUNG LATINOS ON THE VOTER FILE, AND THEY ARE RIGHT NOW LOW TURNOUT. WE WOULD EXPECT SOME OF THOSE TO VOTE ON ELECTION DAY. ASIAN AND AFRICAN AMERICAN VOTERS ARE TURNING OUT UNDER KIND OF THAT TOP LINE WHITE VOTER POPULATION. BUT STILL, WE’RE SEEING THOSE NUMBERS PRETTY GOOD GOING THROUGH ELECTION DAY. OKAY. ALL RIGHT. WELL, WE APPRECIATE YOUR INSIGHT IN BREAKING DOWN ALL THESE NUMBERS. IF YOU’RE STILL TRYING TO FIGURE OUT HOW TO VOTE ON PROP 50, YOU COULD SCAN THE QR CODE
Prop 50 tracker | 4.9 million ballots for special California election returned
Updated: 7:06 AM PDT Oct 29, 2025
More than 4.8 million ballots have been returned so far in California’s special election to either approve or reject Proposition 50, according to a data firm used by political campaigns. A Wednesday release from data firm Political Data Inc. stated that 21% of ballots sent out to California voters have already been returned from Oct. 6 to Oct. 28. Overall, about 23 million ballots were mailed to registered voters.Earlier this month, the firm said the voter turnout rate at the time was “close to recall election numbers,” in a reference to the 2021 vote over whether to recall Gov. Gavin Newsom. (Video below: Sacramento County official answers questions about Prop 50 election.)According to the early mail-in vote, 24% of Democrats and 23% of Republicans have turned in their ballots. That equates to about 2.5 million votes out of 10.3 million total ballots mailed for Democrats. For Republicans, that equates to more than 1.3 million votes out of 5.8 million total ballots mailed. The turnout for voters classified as independent or other is 15%, equating to about 1 million ballots returned out of 6.8 million mailed.Political Data also reports that 47% of the votes came from people ages 65 or older. White voters also represent 67% of the vote so far. According to the California Secretary of State’s website, 40,968 people as of Wednesday have voted in person since in-person voting began over the weekend. About 4,600 people have also voted by fax.The Secretary of State’s Office clarifies under its “Frequently Asked Questions” portion of its website that voting by fax is allowed under “certain limited circumstances.” For example, military and overseas voters can receive their ballots by fax.And those who wish to fax must send it directly to their county elections official.See the full breakdown of votes so far here.California voters on Nov. 4 will decide if the state should temporarily toss its current congressional district map drawn by the state’s independent commission and replace it with a new one that was quickly drawn by Democrats. It’s part of a larger national fight in which Republicans and Democrats are trying to gerrymander their congressional districts to determine which party controls the U.S. House of Representatives halfway through President Donald Trump’s term.The proposed maps target five California Republicans in an attempt to offset the five Republicans Texas is aiming to add.If approved, the maps would be in place for the 2026, 2028 and 2030 elections. State leaders have said the power to draw maps would return to the independent redistricting commission in 2031.One of the people who works at Political Data Inc., Paul Mitchell, is the owner of a consulting firm that helped to create the congressional redistricting maps for Democrats. He said he is not campaigning for the measure. According to data from the California Secretary of State’s Office, voter turnout for special elections is typically about 45%. There have been seven special elections since 1910, including the 2003 recall election that saw Gov. Gray Davis removed from office, and the 2021 failed recall election against Newsom.Both of those elections had higher turnout than the other five.The last day to register to vote was Oct. 20, though people can also vote on Nov. 3 with Conditional Voter Registration. | RELATED | Everything you need to know about California’s Proposition 50Learn more about Prop 50 from our previous coverage below:How a USPS mail service change may delay ballot returns for rural votersEverything to know about Prop 50Who are the 5 California Republicans who could lose their congressional seat if Prop 50 passes?Get the Facts: Why do mail-in ballot envelopes have holes for Prop 50 special election?What is Prop 50? Arguments for and against the California redistricting measureWhat is gerrymandering? History of the term and how it relates to California’s Prop 50In-person early voting begins in California for special election on Proposition 50How to track your ballot for the California Prop 50 special electionSee more coverage of top California stories here | Download our app | Subscribe to our morning newsletter | Find us on YouTube here and subscribe to our channelPHNjcmlwdCB0eXBlPSJ0ZXh0L2phdmFzY3JpcHQiPiFmdW5jdGlvbigpeyJ1c2Ugc3RyaWN0Ijt3aW5kb3cuYWRkRXZlbnRMaXN0ZW5lcigibWVzc2FnZSIsKGZ1bmN0aW9uKGUpe2lmKHZvaWQgMCE9PWUuZGF0YVsiZGF0YXdyYXBwZXItaGVpZ2h0Il0pe3ZhciB0PWRvY3VtZW50LnF1ZXJ5U2VsZWN0b3JBbGwoImlmcmFtZSIpO2Zvcih2YXIgYSBpbiBlLmRhdGFbImRhdGF3cmFwcGVyLWhlaWdodCJdKWZvcih2YXIgcj0wO3I8dC5sZW5ndGg7cisrKXtpZih0W3JdLmNvbnRlbnRXaW5kb3c9PT1lLnNvdXJjZSl0W3JdLnN0eWxlLmhlaWdodD1lLmRhdGFbImRhdGF3cmFwcGVyLWhlaWdodCJdW2FdKyJweCJ9fX0pKX0oKTs8L3NjcmlwdD4=
More than 4.8 million ballots have been returned so far in California’s special election to either approve or reject Proposition 50, according to a data firm used by political campaigns.
A Wednesday release from data firm Political Data Inc. stated that 21% of ballots sent out to California voters have already been returned from Oct. 6 to Oct. 28. Overall, about 23 million ballots were mailed to registered voters.
Earlier this month, the firm said the voter turnout rate at the time was “close to recall election numbers,” in a reference to the 2021 vote over whether to recall Gov. Gavin Newsom.
(Video below: Sacramento County official answers questions about Prop 50 election.)
According to the early mail-in vote, 24% of Democrats and 23% of Republicans have turned in their ballots. That equates to about 2.5 million votes out of 10.3 million total ballots mailed for Democrats. For Republicans, that equates to more than 1.3 million votes out of 5.8 million total ballots mailed.
The turnout for voters classified as independent or other is 15%, equating to about 1 million ballots returned out of 6.8 million mailed.
Political Data also reports that 47% of the votes came from people ages 65 or older. White voters also represent 67% of the vote so far.
According to the California Secretary of State’s website, 40,968 people as of Wednesday have voted in person since in-person voting began over the weekend. About 4,600 people have also voted by fax.
The Secretary of State’s Office clarifies under its “Frequently Asked Questions” portion of its website that voting by fax is allowed under “certain limited circumstances.” For example, military and overseas voters can receive their ballots by fax.
And those who wish to fax must send it directly to their county elections official.
See the full breakdown of votes so far here.
California voters on Nov. 4 will decide if the state should temporarily toss its current congressional district map drawn by the state’s independent commission and replace it with a new one that was quickly drawn by Democrats. It’s part of a larger national fight in which Republicans and Democrats are trying to gerrymander their congressional districts to determine which party controls the U.S. House of Representatives halfway through President Donald Trump’s term.
The proposed maps target five California Republicans in an attempt to offset the five Republicans Texas is aiming to add.
If approved, the maps would be in place for the 2026, 2028 and 2030 elections. State leaders have said the power to draw maps would return to the independent redistricting commission in 2031.
One of the people who works at Political Data Inc., Paul Mitchell, is the owner of a consulting firm that helped to create the congressional redistricting maps for Democrats. He said he is not campaigning for the measure.
According to data from the California Secretary of State’s Office, voter turnout for special elections is typically about 45%. There have been seven special elections since 1910, including the 2003 recall election that saw Gov. Gray Davis removed from office, and the 2021 failed recall election against Newsom.
Both of those elections had higher turnout than the other five.
The last day to register to vote was Oct. 20, though people can also vote on Nov. 3 with Conditional Voter Registration.
| RELATED | Everything you need to know about California’s Proposition 50
Learn more about Prop 50 from our previous coverage below:
See more coverage of top California stories here | Download our app | Subscribe to our morning newsletter | Find us on YouTube here and subscribe to our channel