While Karen Bass retains a cash advantage, new filings and polling point to an increasingly competitive primary
A year after the 2025 Palisades fire reshaped city politics, the Los Angeles mayoral race has become one of the most unpredictable contests the city has seen in years.
At first glance, incumbent Karen Bass still holds the advantage, with about $3.7 million in total campaign funds and a lead in the polls. But the latest financial disclosures from the 14 candidates suggest the race is still fluctuating. Spencer Pratt and Nithya Raman have emerged as credible challengers, finding support among those looking to unseat the incumbent.
Los Angeles has seen unconventional candidates before, but few have arrived with Pratt’s particular brand of notoriety, turning his celebrity into a legitimate campaign. Known for his reality TV persona, Pratt has raised nearly $540,000 since January, leaning heavily on criticism of the city’s response to the 2025 Palisades fire.
Not far behind is Raman, who entered the race only in late February and has already brought in approximately $530,000. Her support has been fueled, in part, by entertainment industry donors, but her campaign messaging is rooted in progressive policy — especially housing, homelessness and city accountability.
Meanwhile, Bass’s comparatively modest recent fundraising haul, about $495,000, belies the structural advantage of incumbency. However, her total campaign funds, built over time and supplemented by public matching funds, still dwarfs those of her challengers.
Then there’s Adam Miller, a tech entrepreneur who has added $2.5 million of his own money into his campaign, highlighting the growing trend of self-funded candidacies that bypass traditional donor networks.
Beyond the fundraising numbers, the defining statistic in this race is the 40% of voters who remain undecided, according to a poll conducted by the UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs. With Bass polling at 25%, Pratt at 11% and Raman at 9%, no candidate is anywhere near securing an outright majority.
A new UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs poll finds 40% of Los Angeles voters still undecided ahead of the June 2 mayoral primary, signaling a highly volatile race. Incumbent Karen Bass leads with 25%, followed by Spencer Pratt and Nithya Raman. https://t.co/JyMJ2O8MDU
— UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs (@UCLALuskin) April 6, 2026
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Historically, such a large bloc of undecided voters this close to a primary suggests either a late surge by a challenger or a diffuse “protest vote” against the incumbent. In a field this crowded, even a small difference could dramatically alter who advances to a likely November runoff.
Political analysts are increasingly framing this race as a referendum on Los Angeles’ governance, crises and identity. Bass retains a strong and consistent base, including significant support among Black voters. Pratt is courting disaffected and anti-establishment voters, while Raman is consolidating more progressive constituencies.
Each campaign, in its own way, reflects a different vision of what ails Los Angeles, and what it needs next.
The immediate question is whether Bass can clear the 50% threshold in the June 2 primary. If she does, the race ends there. If not, Los Angeles faces a five-month runoff between the top two finishers — an outcome that now seems increasingly likely.
Such a scenario would intensify scrutiny on fundraising, messaging and coalition-building, particularly as candidates compete for that large pool of undecided voters.
In a race this unsettled, the outcome may ultimately hinge on which candidate can convince that waiting electorate that they understand what Los Angeles needs next.