Virginia is a favorite on the road against California on Saturday. When you look at ESPN Bet Sportsbook, the Cavaliers are just a 3.5 favorite. However, ESPN’s advanced analytics model sees things differently. ESPN’s FPI has the Cavaliers with a 67.5% chance to defeat California. The Golden Bears are given just a 32.5% to win.
Virginia has continued its impressive season and is 7-1 and 4-0 in the ACC. In the last game, it required a two-point conversion stop against North Carolina to seal the victory for the Cavaliers in a game they struggled on the offensive side of the ball. The biggest thing to watch is if they can protect an injured Chandler Morris, who is battling through an injury and laying it on the line for his team. He has been a pleasant surprise this season for Virginia and has them in a good spot to make an ACC championship game.
Sept 9, 2023; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Head Coach Tony Elliot chats with Virginia Cavaliers wide receiver Ethan Davies (26) during the second half of the game against the James Madison Dukes at Scott Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Hannah Pajewski-Imagn Images / Hannah Pajewski-Imagn Images
Head Coach Tony Elliot has built a resilient program and one that has continued to grow in its fandom and fan attendance this season. He talked about the ways to build a program the right way.
“Oh, man, that’s a tough one. I think it’s different everywhere, right? I think that you gotta have a plan, and then you gotta have the humility to adapt to your plan based on what fits you,” said Elliot.
“I’m grateful for Dr. (Carla) Williams’ leadership and her belief in my plan. In our plan as a program, and just providing the resources for us to be able to do it. And right now, you know, it’s working, you know, for Virginia, but I don’t know if that’s the right formula, you know, for everybody across the country. So that’s a, I don’t know how to answer that question because I think it’s going to be individualized to each university.”
“But right now, I’m just focused on the University of Virginia, kind of how we’re doing it, trying to stay with the plan and not deviate. And I think if there’s anything I could say is just, man, trust your plan, stay committed to your plan, and don’t let the outside noise make you deviate. But always be humble enough to adjust if you need to, but keep the main thing the main thing.”
California has been one of the surprises this season in the ACC and started the season 3-0. They’ve hit a bit of a lull in the past six contests and are 3-3 during that span. The Golden Bears suffered a tough double overtime loss to Virginia Tech last Friday in a high-scoring affair. California struggled on third down, converting just five of its 14 attempts. The Golden Bears also struggled running the ball with just 39 total rushing yards. California will look to lean on its home crowd and pull off the upset and remain in the ACC race. It will be a good one between two of the better teams in the conference.
What exactly is FPI though?
“ESPN uses its FPI (Football Power Index) as an advanced analytical model to help look at matchups and predict outcomes. In ESPN’s own words: “FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI.”
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.