The Anaheim Ducks weren’t just happy to be here; they made their first playoff appearance in eight years count with a decisive upset over the two-time defending Western Conference champions.
Now comes a new and completely different challenge. The Vegas Golden Knights might not have the Edmonton Oilers’ star power, but their fleet of high-end talent is no joke, with a much higher degree of off-puck difficulty.
It’s a massive change-up to Anaheim’s first taste of playoff victory; can the Ducks hit another home run to advance to the conference finals?
The odds
Anaheim’s chances of beating Edmonton? About 30 percent. Anaheim’s chances of beating Vegas? About 30 percent. Odds, schmods — that’s why they play the games, and the Ducks already have proof of concept they can hang with the big dogs in the Pacific.
That’s especially true given the way the Ducks elevated their game against the Oilers, controlling the run of play at five-on-five and via special teams for much of the series. They’re peaking at the right time with a young core that’s becoming special right before our eyes.
The Golden Knights, though, also seem to be peaking at the right time under new coach John Tortorella. Only the Colorado Avalanche controlled play better at five-on-five than Vegas in the first round, and it’s likely that will continue against the Ducks.
Vegas is a heavy favorite for good reason, thanks to its puck possession dominance. But the Ducks’ leveling up makes them a very good underdog.
The numbers
What’s fueling Vegas’ status as the favorite? A very balanced plus-49 Net Rating that outpaces Anaheim by 46 goals. It’s a genuine contender vs. well … not that, even if it didn’t exactly manifest in regular-season results for Vegas.
One common theme between the Ducks and Golden Knights of the regular season? Failure to convert on all of their five-on-five chances.
Season-wide, Vegas’ scoring chance generation was a lot more middle-of-the-road, and the Ducks were one of the best shot and scoring chance creators. After the Olympics, the Golden Knights really picked up the pace to jump into the top four (a shade back of Anaheim), but neither team’s actual scoring came close to expectations. And neither team’s power play was effective enough, despite generating a lot of looks, to make up for it.
That changed for the Ducks in Round 1, whose goal scoring kept pace with their shot quality at five-on-five. And their power play was red hot.
Vegas had more five-on-five juice against Utah, but the power play is still very much a work in progress. There’s an opportunity to build on that in this series. The Ducks defense is outright chaotic, both at even strength and in short-handed situations. So the Golden Knights should have an opening to up their scoring here.
That defense is what separates these two teams. Vegas plays with a lot more structure and was a top-three team in expected goal suppression in the regular season at five-on-five. There just isn’t reliable enough goaltending behind it. Anaheim bleeds chances against and then tests the limits of Lukáš Dostál’s netminding to stop the damage from ending up in the back of the net.
The big question
Can the Ducks adapt to a very different opponent?
The Ducks generally aren’t described as the prototypical playoff team — and for good reason.
If defense wins championships, the Ducks’ playoff runway is limited. If rush-based play can’t survive this tense environment, Anaheim might be in trouble.
Despite all that, the Ducks are here in Round 2. And they did it by playing to their strengths. That Round 1 matchup against the Oilers was a track meet; Sportlogiq has the Ducks with 50 chances in that six-game series (and 31 against).
Those kinds of results were obviously a lot more feasible against Edmonton. As much as the Oilers improved in their own zone down the stretch, rush defense was always a pressure point. When Edmonton couldn’t even play semicompetent defense against the Ducks in that series, Anaheim absolutely cooked offensively.
That extended past even-strength situations and into the power play. The Ducks generated scoring chances at a ridiculous, playoff-high rate of 13.7 per 60 and netted eight goals in just under 22 minutes.
But the Golden Knights aren’t the Ducks. So it’s going to be a test of whether Anaheim can play its game against Vegas or adapt enough to advance.
The Utah Mammoth tried doing the former in Round 1. At times, Utah did successfully expose the Golden Knights’ lack of footspeed on the back end. The Logan Cooley line did it best and generally dominated the minutes. The problem is no one else even came close, which might be the case here as well, outside of Anaheim’s top line.
As much as Utah’s speed challenged the Golden Knights, it still dispatched them in six games. Vegas clamped down with its forecheck and slowed the game down to play to its own strengths. That was clear in the third period of Game 1, during back-to-back overtime wins to take a 3-2 series lead, and in a series-clinching Game 6.
The Golden Knights’ play style could be a real edge. Their penalty killing could be another.
Just because the Ducks’ power play was lights out in Round 1 doesn’t mean it will be here. Utah scored 12.2 goals per 60 after the Olympics. Then, in a six-game series, the Mammoth were outscored 2-1 on the power play while being limited to just 5.8 expected goals per 60, the 13th-best mark from the playoffs. Vegas did extremely well holding Utah’s best to the perimeter to take away another strength. That’s what the Ducks have to be prepared for: a stingy penalty kill or not getting opportunities altogether, because those tend to dry up as the postseason rolls on, anyway.
Vegas knows that. For all its flaws this year, it’s still an experienced team, and it showed in Round 1. As much as the Mammoth had an element of resilience in this series with third-period comebacks, it’s the Golden Knights advancing to Round 2 at the end of the day. They adjusted more. They had the stamina to play upward of 80 minutes when necessary, when Utah looked pretty gassed from its run-and-gun style as time ticked on.
It was a tough lesson for the Mammoth in Round 1. And, if this growing Ducks team isn’t ready to adapt, it could be one for them, too.
The X-factor
Can William Karlsson shift the series further in Vegas’ favor?
Karlsson, who hasn’t played a game since Nov. 8 because of a lower-body injury, was a surprise full participant in Vegas’ morning skate ahead of Game 6 against Utah. He didn’t ultimately play, and Tortorella cautioned reporters his morning skate appearance wasn’t necessarily a sign he’s ultra close, but this does leave the door open for a possible return at some point in Round 2.
Karlsson still grades out as a low-end second-line center with a plus-1.0 Net Rating. Most of that is driven by his strong defensive acumen, with a plus-1.9 Defensive Rating further reinforcing Vegas’ biggest strength.
When Vegas won the Cup in 2023, Karlsson regularly matched up against Connor McDavid and/or Leon Draisaitl in Round 2. McDavid’s and Draisaitl’s lines couldn’t manufacture a single five-on-five goal in their head-to-head minutes against Karlsson over the entire six-game series. Even last year, when the Oilers handily beat the Golden Knights in five games, Karlsson managed to be up 3-0 in 41 head-to-head minutes against McDavid at five-on-five.
Expectations would need to be tempered for Karlsson’s impact after five months off, but he could still be a middle-six difference-maker against Anaheim’s high-octane offensive weapons. Vegas’ odds of winning the series would jump to 75 percent if Karlsson returns.
The rosters
“Playoff Mitch” has a nice ring to it.
After struggling to elevate offensively in big moments for a decade in Toronto, Mitch Marner singlehandedly won the series-clincher for Vegas with a two-goal and 3-point effort. For the series, Marner led the team in Net Rating thanks primarily to his usual playoff calling card: staunch off-puck ability. Marner managed a 64 percent xG rate, allowing just 1.47 xGA.60 in his minutes, a mark that ranks 16th among forwards.
Marner doesn’t get enough credit for the way his defensive game elevates in the playoffs, mostly because there’s an inverse reaction offensively. Life is easier in the Pacific Division compared with the usual Atlantic gantlet Marner had to go through, but if the Golden Knights can consistently see more of Game 6 Marner, that’s a big point in their favor.
So too is Vegas’ collection of stars aside from Marner. Jack Eichel was awesome once again, scoring 9 points in six games, and Mark Stone dominated once he was paired with Marner to the tune of a 67 percent xG rate. That’s a strong big three that stacks up extremely favorably to what the Ducks have on the other side.
There will come a time when Anaheim’s star power will be just as undeniable, and though it doesn’t show up on paper, it did show up at the very top of the lineup during the first round. Leo Carlsson’s playoff debut was immediately special, with 8 points in six games as well as a 58 percent xG. His line with Troy Terry and Chris Kreider tilted the ice heavily despite some extremely tough matchups.
Now the Ducks just need their other young forwards to get there. Cutter Gauthier’s offense was on a similarly elite wavelength with four goals and 7 points during the series, but he did get outchanced at five-on-five, which doesn’t bode well for this series. Even worse was Beckett Sennecke, who had just a single point during the series and disappeared completely at five-on-five.
Getting to the Eichel-Stone-Marner level is a process, and the patience required for that doesn’t work in Anaheim’s immediate favor. Carlsson was great, and Gauthier made his offense count, but the Ducks need them to continue that, and they really need Sennecke to figure it out quickly. Vegas’ top guys’ being so strong defensively is another advantage here, too.
Vegas’ second layer with Pavel Dorofeyev, Tomas Hertl and Ivan Barbashev is another point of emphasis here, stacking up well to Anaheim’s supporting cast. Though Vegas’ bottom six would be a weakness against other contenders, that’s not the case here, where Anaheim’s also looks weak. Anaheim’s fourth line had a shockingly good series, but it is difficult to expect that to be the norm.
On the back end, Vegas’ depth and defensive might are going to be a real problem for the Ducks. Shea Theodore is an elite two-way defenseman who earned 61 percent of the xG in the first round. He’s paired with a shutdown ace, Brayden McNabb, and the two allowed very little offense against Utah. Noah Hanifin and Rasmus Andersson make up a strong puck-moving second pair, and Kaedan Korczak is an underrated gem on a sheltered third pair.
That ability to put out three strong pairs is not something the Ducks can keep up with, and it showed whenever Jackson LaCombe wasn’t on the ice against Edmonton. As sparkling as John Carlson’s regular-season numbers still were this season, he struggled heavily against Edmonton with just 41 percent of the expected goals. Some of that might be on having to carry Pavel Mintyukov, and in a playoff setting, that makes Anaheim vulnerable in the top four. It’ll be interesting to see whether Olen Zellweger steps in at some point, but it’s unlikely he’ll be a savior here.
A lot rides on LaCombe’s replicating his incredible performance against Connor McDavid in the first round. He led all players in Net Rating in the opening round at plus-3.6; the Ducks will need more of that to get by Vegas.
Star power, depth, offense, defense, forwards, defensemen — all of that leans in Vegas’ favor. If the Ducks are going to pull off another upset, the biggest difference-maker will have to be goaltending. That’s their advantage here. Dostál is a legitimate starter who can steal a series; Carter Hart is an Achilles’ heel who can sink a series.
Dostál’s high-water mark came last season, when he saved 18.9 goals above expected, and though he was only average this season, the volume he plays behind such a leaky defense should be accounted for. It’s a much tougher job than he’s given credit for.
For Hart, it’s the opposite, where Vegas makes things extremely easy, and he still spent most of the year struggling. He had the third-worst GSAx from the first round. Though it’s true Dostál was one of the only goalies who was even worse, opponent difficulty plays a huge factor there, and his track record makes him a strong bet for a bounce back. It’s difficult to be equally confident in Hart’s rising to that level.
Vegas has a strong chance of controlling the shot volume in this series, but that could prove frustrating for a below-average finishing team — especially with Anaheim’s high-flying counterattack going the other way. That could tilt the scales closer to even, but it’s still Vegas’ to lose.
The key matchup
Jack Eichel vs. Jackson LaCombe
LaCombe was a two-way monster in Round 1 against the Oilers. He scored 9 points in six games offensively, but most importantly, he completely locked down McDavid at five-on-five.
LaCombe played 66 minutes head-to-head against McDavid, in which the Ducks outshot the Oilers 42-19 and outscored them 6-2. In other words, he didn’t just squeak out a marginal victory; this was total dominance territorially and on the scoreboard. Of course, a big part of that has to do with the injury McDavid suffered in Game 2, which significantly hampered his explosiveness, and that’s where Eichel will present a different challenge in Round 2.
Eichel is coming off back-to-back 90-point seasons and scored 9 points in the first round against Utah. He isn’t quite as explosive as McDavid, but he’s exceptionally smooth and cerebral as a puck transporter and distributor. Now it’s time to see whether LaCombe can mitigate that with his excellent puck-moving and by leveraging his elite skating to continue denying easy zone entries and rush offense.
The bottom line
On paper, it’s Vegas’ series to lose. The Golden Knights got hot at the right time to push through this season’s challenges to get to Round 2.
But the game isn’t played on paper, or the Ducks wouldn’t be here. After they upset the Oilers, it’s time to see whether that underdog energy can help the Ducks level up once again.
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